snowman19

No argument from me about stormy (all strong/super El Niños are) and a changing pattern. Here is my issue, it is going to take SUSTAINED cross-polar flow to get arctic cold into Canada. All of the arctic air is on the other side of the pole in Eurasia, that’s not debatable, record low snowcover and record low sea ice on our side of the pole too, also fact, not my opinion. If anyone thinks we are getting arctic cold by the start of January, they are going to be very sorely mistaken. Do we cool down? Sure. I think a seasonal cool down at best into the start of January, not “cold” by any means until Canada changes in a very big way

Bingo!!

Weekly update: Nino 3.4: +2.0C Nino 3: +2.1C Nino 4: +1.4C Nino 1+2: +1.5C

Definitely a slam dunk if the long range 6z op GFS is showing it!!!!

Textbook equatorial “Nino convection” with a strong STJ extending from it. I think it’s safe to say that this event has coupled now

If that proves correct then we are in real big trouble this winter. A +EPO is going to flood our source region with PAC air. You also said you are getting a signal for a largely +NAO…another real bad sign….not that a -NAO/-AO would help anyway in the face of a possible +EPO winter

Yes, we are seeing MJO constructive interference with the El Niño now. On the flip side, the associated WWB/DWKW is causing more warming and strengthening of this Nino event. There is still plenty of OHC warmth and subsurface warmth to work with. Both Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 are warming rapidly now. 3.4 is over +2.1C already

Here comes the late December MJO constructive interference/WWB we spoke of at the beginning of this month. While not as impressive as the last WWB/DWKW, this would certainly result in more warming and strengthening in the coming weeks given the OHC and the subsurface warmth it still has to work with @bluewave

Besides the record low snowcover on our side of the pole, there is also record low arctic sea ice. Bare ground, open waters….it’s going to be a real challenge to get true arctic air here until this changes in a big way @Bluewave

The current equatorial SOI that @griteater posted the other day, shows that this event is extremely robust and a top tier El Niño, right up there with 72-73, 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16

This isn’t helping either. And make no mistake about it, this Niño is not done strengthening yet. It’s going to warm further. @Bluewave

This is a HUGE problem for cold

The trough is positively tilted as all hell. God speed

If this doesn’t scream “El Nino” then I don’t know what does

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure

That aside, even on the models suddenly showing “something”, look at how positively tilted the trough is on all of them. Good luck with that one

It’s the same pattern #StoplisteningtoJoeBastardi

At this point a -PDO winter is all but guaranteed. A historic first (strong -PDO) for a Nino this strong

Well if that happens then my February idea I discussed with you back in early November in the ENSO thread is dead wrong. As we showed with 97-98 MJO phase 8 even at the end of December and January could make no difference with a very strong El Niño in place ——-raging jet promotion

OISST finally updated on Cyclonicwx last night…stagnated at +2.0C in 3.4 still

I’m seeing Nino standing wave forcing. The thing is, once the MJO propagates east, it’s going to constructively interfere with the El Niño, promote tropical westerlies and strengthening. It may be unintended consequences. We are starting with a stagnated base of +2.0C in 3.4. So it warms how much from there? I do think we see the decaying process start around mid-January and any strengthening before then may cause more jet extension/raging jet into January. As Griteater showed yesterday with the equatorial SOI, this is a very robust event, you don’t want a roided up STJ blasting into the west coast or our good February idea is in trouble. A lot to watch CPC MJO discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf