snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The warm December aside, I honestly cannot remember the last time we have gone into the first week of January with less than an inch of snow. We got nothing in November and I only have 0.5 of snow total for December. In recent history, I think only 97-98 and 01-02 did this. Even 11-12 and 19-20 had much more snow by this time…..
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Nice discussion. 1/6-1/7 definitely looks like an I-84 - north snow/wintry event. Unfortunately, we lost the -NAO blocking, also lost the -AO. Any shortwave that amps is going to want to be an inland runner/cutter. With the +NAO, there nothing to stop a SE ridge flex and force secondary redevelopment off the coast. The blocking left at a real bad time
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If you want snowstorms hope that’s wrong. With a TPV in that position you are going to be very cold and dry. There is going to be screaming fast flow around it, any shortwaves are going to get put through the meat grinder and sheared, suppressed to bits….
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As Allsnow was. But in all honestly, that pattern is temporary, enjoy it while it lasts and hope it produces
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Besides the MJO, the strength and coupling of the La Niña/-PDO, the SPV was another poorly forecasted factor going into this winter, we kept hearing that we would see a weak to very weak SPV for December and January, now we have anything but with no signs whatsoever of a SSW and signals that it may couple with the troposphere going into late month:
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How many inches of snow did you get for NYC when you extrapolated the 84 hour NAM? I’m up to 8….
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Agreed. The window for “wintry” here IMO is mid-January. As far as the pipe dream that the MJO is going into phase 8….we’ve been hearing that the MJO is going to phase 8 since Halloween now, it’s time for certain people to give that wishcast up, just like the SSW that we’ve been hearing is coming since November and the very weak SPV for Dec, Jan……
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Also +AO. Any +PNA is going to be very transient and not last, there is no support whatsoever sustainable +PNA….there may be a short window for something come mid next month
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Yea….sure
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It’s the Niña standing wave…..there are no doubts, a classic canonical La Niña system is firmly in place and has been for months now:
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The Grand Fantasy System (GFS) Model has skill scores that are so pathetically low, it ought to be classified as nothing more than wishcasting
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Yea, not total garbage but close. I think the tropical convective forcing is wreaking havoc. Just pray a vortex doesn’t set up shop in AK, that happens, it’s game over and game over for awhile
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And the new EPS is back to a garbage looking PAC/+EPO in the long range. There is no consistency
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The thing is, you are not going to sustain a +PNA for any length of time, not with a well coupled moderate La Niña (Region 3.4 still at -1.1C this week) and an extremely strong -PDO/-PMM. Like you said, the models are firing IO convection mid-late January, that supports continued +AO/+NAO. Without something to force a change in the tropical convection/standing wave, i.e. major SSW, any mid month change is not going to last and Niña climo will most likely take over Allan’s thoughts:
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Not a torch but some above normal days the next 10 for sure though. The new 0Z guidance (Euro, GFS, CMC) are very ugly for snow right through day 10+. Ditto for the UKMET and ICON through the ends of their respective runs. If we get to mid-January without a big change or one imminent, it will be really troubling to say the least. A warmer than normal December with well below average snow during a La Niña is typically a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter…..
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Better hope the PNA is correct because the -NAO. -EPO and -AO are going to be gone. Allan Huffman thinks if it does happen, it’s only a short change:
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You and JB have been saying the MJO is going into phase 8 since Halloween
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The ICON is in the Euro, CMC, UKMET camp as well. GFS is all alone in blowing up the 2nd wave
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This is why posters here have warned about using the RMM plots. Forcing on our side of the hemisphere in phase 6 is definitely not good and the models reflect this for the first week of January. Also, you have this:
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Kiss of death right there
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This is not good, stronger than normal SPV continues, no signs of any SSW or SPV disruption over the next 3+ weeks:
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This La Niña and -PDO mean business, very well coupled. As you pointed out that Niña standing wave is one of the strongest in history. If we don’t see a major SSW and we follow Niña climo, we are probably going to torch starting by late January and February…..
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I agree with you. I doubt we ever see it actually go into phase 8. This is shades of several winters ago when the models wanted to go phase 8 from November through March and it never happened
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If there’s no big SSW in January and that’s indeed what happens, February will be a furnace
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If he’s right, yea you get rid of the super -PNA but you also get a +EPO to go along with it, he says it in his tweet chain, that is NOT what you want to see, especially when AAM may work to also flip the NAO positive…Matt Hugo touched on that
