snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The +IOD has just started to develop…once that really gets going in the next month it’s going to alter the forcing and SST configuration in the WPAC
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People aren’t going to be asking where the Nino atmospheric response is very soon:
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Go crawl back under your rock you clueless, half-wit troll. You have no idea what you’re even talking about. Useless member
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This El Niño isn’t going to go over +2.0C and not be a real prominent driver IMO. There is an atmospheric lag right now because we are just getting out of a semipermanent 4 year in a row La Niña state. We aren’t just going to flip a switch. I think by November/December, there will be no question whatsoever that El Niño is going to be a very major factor this coming winter
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All the real major subsurface warmth is under 1+2, 3 and the eastern part of 3.4
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Let’s see where the forcing is come November
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Obviously it can change between now and December, but as of today, this is a classic Eastern Pacific/“E-pattern” El Niño and it has been right from the start
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The warmth in regions 1+2 and 3 is self-sustaining now. There’s a positive feedback (Bjerknes) loop in those regions now, it just keeps getting reinforced. It’s a classic Eastern Pacific/“E-pattern” Nino
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The lag has to kick in. We just had basically 4 years of a La Niña state
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Anything is possible. Let’s see where the main tropical convective forcing/Nino standing wave is located come November when the different feedbacks kick in
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If the El Nino actually goes super, good luck sustaining a +PNA this winter. If that happens, STJ is going to be absolutely roaring and juiced to hell and is going to blast right through any +PNA pop and knock it right down. It would also support +EPO because the Aleutian low gets displaced well east of its normal position for weak and moderate Ninos. Can you still get a -NAO/-AO? Sure. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-NAM but all it did was bring down and trap PAC maritime air
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Look at the international average of models for December in their disco. They have it at +2.2C in December. The POAMA is overdone
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BOM’s August 1st update has the El Niño peaking at +2.2C in December. Has the +IOD peaking at +1.2C in October then slowly falling: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
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What does the PAC side look like?
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The new CANSIPS now has a super El Niño:
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Very believable that we are in a strong El Niño by 9/1 now. At this point strong is inevitable and IMO so is super. The question is how “super” does it go by December? IMO there is a limit….definitely weaker than 15-16 and 97-98 but still super in the end none the less…..
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Do I think the +2.9C the new POAMA run for December is showing is overdone? Yes and I’ve said that a few times now. However I absolutely do think it goes super in December and my guess for a peak is still +2.1C - +2.5C
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Given that we are about to start August with a daily reading of +1.3C, I don’t think it reaching or surpassing strong status by 8/31 is that far fetched….
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How anyone in their right mind could take this clown seriously is beyond me. He’s hyping 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs, saying it’s going to become a Modoki and posting a model run showing a super El Niño. “Top 5 event!” There’s no such thing as a super Modoki El Nino. How do people pay to read this utter garbage??
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The strong/super El Niño along with the +IOD is very likely to cause a major change in the dominant tropical convective forcing/MJO. As @bluewave pointed out, you can already see the SST and forcing changes showing up. Any change would lead to a much different outcome than the stagnant WPAC forcing we’ve seen since 2019….
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Say goodbye to the La Niña like state and forcing we’ve seen for the last 3+ years in the WPAC:
