snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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It’s not a hard concept, well maybe for the challenged people, like yourself. It’s called stick to the topic, which is clearly “El Nino” in here. If you want to wishcast about winter 500mb patterns and high latitude blocking, and -NAO’s go do that in a winter thread
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Could someone please start a 2023-24 winter thread so we can stop posting winter pattern fantasy maps from 6, 7, 8 months from now in a dedicated El Niño thread?
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If the Euro is correct, the real big warming is ASOND
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Here comes the MJO event people were talking about
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If nothing else, we are witnessing history. If this becomes super (which I expect), it is probably a once in a 100 year, extremely rare event and we will never see a Nino develop in this way again in our lifetimes. Breaking all the “rules”. It showed us a completely alternative way to develop a very strong El Niño that we definitely are not traditionally accustomed to….
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Here comes the MJO wave that’s really going to start kicking this Nino into overdrive later on this month
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Wow!
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You got it
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Very confident region 3.4 is over +2.0C on the weeklies late November and December
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IMO, I think it gets stronger than that, but I do agree that it peaks in December. I think it strengthens right into December when the final peak happens
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I suppose anything is possible, but if we see I peak of over +2.0C come November/December (and I’m becoming increasingly confident that we will), I can’t imagine this event not behaving like a canonical El Niño. All we can do is wait and see
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An Atlantic season like this with the new Euro showing over +2C in the means? I’ll take the under…..
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After the MJO event later this month the warming will take off big time. Even Eric Webb, who was skeptical, has come onboard now. The CFS is hot garbage btw, that model had a borderline weak Nino developing last year at one point
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Oh yea, and I’m waiting for the big ENSO region 1+2 SST drop to an iceberg that you’ve been posting is coming since the end of March…
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@gawx This looks like the real deal for later this month. If this is correct (Paul Roundy says it is) a very strong MJO event with an associated major WWB is going to take shape. If it happens, this will couple the atmosphere, cause a strong DWKW and we will see major warming in region 3.4 and pushing east into 3 and 1+2. It will also help to really get the +IOD going and constructively interfere with the El Niño. It needs to be monitored very closely
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@Gawx Is there confirmation that region 3 has shot up to +1.9C?
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