snowman19

How anyone in their right mind could take this clown seriously is beyond me. He’s hyping 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs, saying it’s going to become a Modoki and posting a model run showing a super El Niño. “Top 5 event!” There’s no such thing as a super Modoki El Nino. How do people pay to read this utter garbage??

The strong/super El Niño along with the +IOD is very likely to cause a major change in the dominant tropical convective forcing/MJO. As @bluewave pointed out, you can already see the SST and forcing changes showing up. Any change would lead to a much different outcome than the stagnant WPAC forcing we’ve seen since 2019….

Say goodbye to the La Niña like state and forcing we’ve seen for the last 3+ years in the WPAC:

The new update from Skywatch India on the IOD and ENSO….They have a real healthy +IOD forming and they have the El Niño (region 3.4) going Super and peaking at +2.1C in December:

You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. Please stop. The subsurface just under regions 1+2 and 3 is over +6C. You have been saying these regions are going to fall apart since the end of March and posting the wretched CFS over and over. 5 months in a row now. Give it up. You’re wishcasting

You are a broken record. You have been saying this literally since March. 5 months now. Boy who cried wolf

This event has built entirely from the east (regions 1+2 and 3) with DWKWs breaking at the South American coast. It may very well end up being one of, if not the most east-based event on record. Once the -SOI/WWBs get going in earnest, I think we will see very rapid warming in 3.4. Like you said, +1.1C at the end of July is already very impressive and the warming still has yet to really take off. When the developing +IOD kicks in next month, it’s going to constructively interfere and that’s when I think things start to go bonkers with the warming

Adios -PMM/-PDO….El Nino forcing the change

@bluewave A +IOD is very clearly developing now

Once the +IOD gets going (should be next month) I think this really takes off and we see good atmospheric coupling/-SOI/WWBs/DWKWs along with the associated warming and feedbacks

The POAMA took a dump on this one. Much too warm. I think the Euro ends up being the closest to reality with a “low-end” super Nino peak around December. The warm water volume we have isn’t going to be denied

Just based on recent history (since 72-73) and the way the subsurface is starting to look, I’d have to say the chances are high that there’s a La Nina for fall, 2024. That said, a very, very long way to go obviously

I know no one is going to want to hear this, but based on the current subsurface evolution, I think this El Nino very rapidly decays this spring and we go into yet another La Niña. Would not be surprised if we are knocking on the door of a weak La Niña next summer and have a healthy Niña event in place in the fall, 2024. Strong and super Nino events are very good at “killing” themselves come spring….

You’ve been saying this since March. 5 months and counting. Just keep repeating it, eventually you’ll be right….

On the bright side, nothing could possibly be worse than last winter, that was the floor, the only place to go is up. My area only had one 6+ storm at the tail end of February. November was a total dud, December, January and March had next to nothing and January/February was a wall to wall torch a rama. The only winter worse than that was 01-02….97-98, 11-12 and 19-20 weren’t even that bad

Trailer park ratchet trash CAPE is back I see with his typical degenerate responses. If I lived in an area (Greensboro, Maryland) that gets 2 inches of snow total per year on average like you do, I’d be just as miserable as you are with your 2nd grade backwoods, rube education. Go back to the mid-Atlantic forum and wallow in your misery with the other people in that almost subtropical climate. You are the lowest form of life. Oxygen stealer

He’s arguing that ‘57 started east-based with his QBO/solar composite. But yes I agree, it definitely did not end up that way

Reading comprehension isn’t your strong point, so I’ll say it again…My guess for a final peak: between +2.1C - +2.5C

The BOM is very clearly running too warm so far but as you pointed out the JMA has also been cool biased. I still think my guesstimate of this event hitting a peak between +2.1C - +2.5C in November/December is reasonable and well within the realm of possibilities. I believe the JMA peak of +1.7C is too cool, but even so, it’s still not that far off my peak range guess

This is showing a well coupled El Niño by September

At this point, I think the only question is, does this Nino become super in November/December? This event going strong is inevitable, basically guaranteed now

This El Niño continues to be extremely east-based and the region 1+2 warmth is record breaking