snowman19

Several of us suspected this robust MJO was going to couple with the El Nino standing wave and slow down

As suspected, once the MJO gets into phase 7, it constructively interferes with the El Niño standing wave and slows down. Expect the associated WWB to also increase in strength as we get closer in time. This is almost certainly going to result in substantial warming of Nino regions 3 and 3.4 at the end of this month….it has a lot of warmth in the subsurface and OHC to work with…..

Eric Webb (love him or hate him) makes an interesting point, is AGW making the warmth even more dramatic?

This upcoming WWB and MJO constructive interference is going to have a boat load of subsurface/OHC warmth to work with. We may see very dramatic warming in both regions 3 and 3.4 at the end of this month

The overnight model runs have gotten even stronger with the PAC jet late month. This is pretty incredible

That signal for a raging, extended PAC jet come late December is crazy

Yes. I agree with you, I think the WWB ends up stronger than modeled and it warms 3.4 substantially by the end of December, but in the grand scheme of things, if I turn out to be right or Ray @40/70 Benchmark turns out to be right, it won’t make a damn bit of difference….a +1.9C trimonthly or a +2.1C/+2.2C trimonthly isn’t going to change the atmospheric response, it’s still going to be the exact same. We are talking about a difference of 0.3. Like @Bluewave said, Mother Nature isn’t going to say “let me respond completely differently to a +1.9C and a +2.2C”

Red flags all over the place for late month. If anyone believes that we are going into an arctic cold pattern by then with a look like that they are going to be in for a real huge surprise

Here comes the next period of WWBs and El Nino strengthening/warming:

It’s generally not a good sign for a cold pattern when all of the arctic air is on the other side of the pole in Eurasia, arctic sea ice is low and snowcover on our side of the hemisphere looks like this:

I didn’t doubt it. However, if the MJO behaves as expected this cooling will be short lived

Given the subsurface (from the recent major WWB/DWKW), surface, upcoming constructive interference from the MJO and what looks to be another very substantial WWB coming up, I really don’t think it’s that far fetched at all

@so_whats_happening @bluewaveHere’s the new Euro run, shows a super El Niño. VERY strong signal!

Looks like a very strong WWB coming up, this event has most definitely not peaked yet. Here is an interesting perspective @bluewave might find this interesting too:

IMO the MJO wave is going to slow down dramatically, maybe stall once it interacts/constructively interferes with the El Niño standing wave

@bluewave Are you also expecting the MJO wave to slow down dramatically, maybe stall when it interacts/constructively interferes with the El Nino standing wave?

If the Pacific jet doesn’t slow down big time nothing is going to change. An extended Pacific firehose aimed at western North America definitely doesn't = cold and and snow in the east. I’m also not understanding some of the hype on twitter right now calling for an arctic cold late December. That’s going to be a really good trick considering all of the arctic air is locked on the other side of the pole in Eurasia

This Nino is a top 4 warmest event in region 3.4 since 1950. It’s neck and neck with 82-83 right now with only 97-98 and 15-16 being stronger: More warming to come mid-late December as the MJO moves strongly in phase 7, triggering a very impressive WWB and +AAM spike:

New CPC ENSO weekly update: 1+2: +2.0C 3: +2.0C 3.4: +2.0C 4: +1.7C https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf