snowman19

BAM who flip flops like fish out of water lol Anyway, how exactly is it going to get arctic cold here by late December when all of the arctic air is on the total other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia at that point??? I don’t care if the NAO is -10. Please explain that one to me. That should be a real good trick

Kind of hard to get cold when all the arctic air is on the complete opposite side of the pole….

Your warm December idea may work out after all Ray lol Maybe don’t abandon it yet

Given the current anomalies and subsurface, I don’t think we will have any problem warming to a trimonthly super ONI next month….the signal for the MJO coupling event with another strong WWB/DWKW by the end of the month is getting stronger and stronger. Also will be interesting to see how high the OHC adjusts for this month as a whole

FWIW…

Well, I disagree. I can care less what the CFS shows. People have been doubting this event for months and months now and this one is headed for a 4th place (in strength) El Niño event since 1980, behind only 15-16, 97-98, 82-83….in that order. This event has clearly not yet peaked and it’s going to warm further next month. I think it easily goes over +2.0C for more than a month Mitch. 3.4 is already +2C right now @bluewave Here is this event in comparison to all the others in the last 43 years….clearly headed to a top 4 event, most likely taking 4th place just behind 82-83

Mike Masco is a weenie met too lol HM dropped off the face of the planet. I hope he’s ok. It’s extremely weird that he’s nowhere to be found. He’d normally be all over a major Nino event like this. Shame @Isotherm doesn’t post here anymore either, another great met

No, wrong. Quite the opposite, high geomag corresponds to +NAO/+AO actually. Tony Pann is a weenie met just like Bastardi, Margavage, Margusity, Steve D and more recently Cosgrove

@Jbenedet The final El Niño strengthening/warming period looks to be roughly 12/10 - 12/31 (late December) when the MJO enters the Pacific, constructively interferes and causes what should be a very substantial WWB and DWKW. It will have an extremely warm subsurface and OHC to work with. Think this is when the trimonthly super ONI is achieved

@Gawx As suspected, Nino region 3.4 warmed back up over +2C on OISST so temporary day to day flux like we thought https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png Also, strong +IOD still in place, looks like it’s going to stay positive until sometime later in January when it reaches neutral:

This is going to be one of the strongest El Niños since 1980. In the top 4 in the last 43+ years actually. This one will go down with the big guns (82-83, 97-98, 15-16). It may get close to 82-83’s strength when all is said and done, but I think it takes 4th place, maybe not by much. 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 23-24, in that order. Just looking at what this El Niño has done to the global heat budget…moved the +30C warm pool east of the dateline through a massive (record) WWB and DWKW, +2C SSTs in Nino regions 1+2, 3, 3.4….if anyone thinks a Nino of this strength would stay “uncoupled” then I don’t know what to say (don’t think anyone here is suggesting that?). That would be completely delusional. No one should make any mistake about it, this Nino will make its presence felt in a HUGE way this winter. It will be the main player, by far and the atmospheric response will be overwhelming and I’d have to agree it will be extreme. This is a real good illustration of just how intense this event is:

@GaWx This is a testament to just how strong this event is:

The final “push”/strengthening next month is the one that gets it to a trimonthly super ONI IMO. I’ve a been thinking a late December/early January peak since October

Looks like one more month to go of El Niño strengthening, big WWB event next month, then it starts to decay come January. Not unexpected:

@Bluewave @Gawx Very likely we see more big warming in December, here’s why:

Yea, besides the projected WWB activity to come and the MJO related assist, I think the feedback process is there and entrenched for further strengthening in December. Also, significant warming ongoing in region 1+2, with the oceanic kelvin wave surfacing off South America. IMO this pushes west https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

Yea, think a NDJ peak may be a possibility. As of today, I have no reason to change my forecast guess

Saw that. Question is, is this a temporary day to day flux like we’ve seen a bunch of times during this event (warming/cooling) or something bigger? Let’s see what it does into the weekend. If it continues to drop steadily into Saturday/Sunday then maybe something is going on. If I had to guess this is transient and it warms back up again given the big synoptic picture of everything right now but I could be wrong. Going to give it to the weekend to see if this drop doesn’t stop and hold or start warming again

As suspected, 3.4, 3 and the OHC have increased. Probably going to need to see a +2.4C reading next month in order for a super trimonthly ONI to verify. An ONI of +1.9C (at least) looks like a given now. Region 1+2 has just started to warm again as the Kelvin wave surfaces, I expect next week’s reading to reflect that. Probably one month left before we know for sure

It’s wait and see now. This latest record WWB already did the dirty work of pushing the warm pool east of the dateline, causing a big DWKW which warmed the subsurface and surface and pushed up the OHC. The follow up WWBs in December don’t have to be massive in order to warm 3.4 further. Minor ones will do. Like I said, IMO a +1.9C ONI is pretty much a given, some more work needed for a super trimonthly but not much. As suspected with the thermocline response, the kelvin wave is starting to surface off SA, region 1+2 has started to rewarm

Right. Like Paul Roundy pointed out, up until the end of November, we had weak WWBs the entire event which reduced the normal wind evaporation cooling as they went by….this lead to a much warmer and expansive warm pool, which this latest massive WWB has pushed east of the dateline. The DWKW was no slouch either. At this point I’d say a trimonthly ONI of AT LEAST +1.9C is almost a certainty and a super peak has become a very real possibility….more so than at any other point in this event. It all depends on what happens with the follow up WWBs and region 3.4 SSTs over the next month

That area of +31C east of the dateline is very significant as is the OHC uptick. Big reservoir of very warm subsurface water available to warm the 3.4 SSTs further as we go into December. Looks like the DWKW/WWB response and rewarming in region 1+2 is starting to happen now as the kelvin wave starts to surface