snowman19

This event has built entirely from the east (regions 1+2 and 3) with DWKWs breaking at the South American coast. It may very well end up being one of, if not the most east-based event on record. Once the -SOI/WWBs get going in earnest, I think we will see very rapid warming in 3.4. Like you said, +1.1C at the end of July is already very impressive and the warming still has yet to really take off. When the developing +IOD kicks in next month, it’s going to constructively interfere and that’s when I think things start to go bonkers with the warming

Adios -PMM/-PDO….El Nino forcing the change

@bluewave A +IOD is very clearly developing now

Once the +IOD gets going (should be next month) I think this really takes off and we see good atmospheric coupling/-SOI/WWBs/DWKWs along with the associated warming and feedbacks

The POAMA took a dump on this one. Much too warm. I think the Euro ends up being the closest to reality with a “low-end” super Nino peak around December. The warm water volume we have isn’t going to be denied

Just based on recent history (since 72-73) and the way the subsurface is starting to look, I’d have to say the chances are high that there’s a La Nina for fall, 2024. That said, a very, very long way to go obviously

I know no one is going to want to hear this, but based on the current subsurface evolution, I think this El Nino very rapidly decays this spring and we go into yet another La Niña. Would not be surprised if we are knocking on the door of a weak La Niña next summer and have a healthy Niña event in place in the fall, 2024. Strong and super Nino events are very good at “killing” themselves come spring….

You’ve been saying this since March. 5 months and counting. Just keep repeating it, eventually you’ll be right….

On the bright side, nothing could possibly be worse than last winter, that was the floor, the only place to go is up. My area only had one 6+ storm at the tail end of February. November was a total dud, December, January and March had next to nothing and January/February was a wall to wall torch a rama. The only winter worse than that was 01-02….97-98, 11-12 and 19-20 weren’t even that bad

Trailer park ratchet trash CAPE is back I see with his typical degenerate responses. If I lived in an area (Greensboro, Maryland) that gets 2 inches of snow total per year on average like you do, I’d be just as miserable as you are with your 2nd grade backwoods, rube education. Go back to the mid-Atlantic forum and wallow in your misery with the other people in that almost subtropical climate. You are the lowest form of life. Oxygen stealer

He’s arguing that ‘57 started east-based with his QBO/solar composite. But yes I agree, it definitely did not end up that way

Reading comprehension isn’t your strong point, so I’ll say it again…My guess for a final peak: between +2.1C - +2.5C

The BOM is very clearly running too warm so far but as you pointed out the JMA has also been cool biased. I still think my guesstimate of this event hitting a peak between +2.1C - +2.5C in November/December is reasonable and well within the realm of possibilities. I believe the JMA peak of +1.7C is too cool, but even so, it’s still not that far off my peak range guess

This is showing a well coupled El Niño by September

At this point, I think the only question is, does this Nino become super in November/December? This event going strong is inevitable, basically guaranteed now

This El Niño continues to be extremely east-based and the region 1+2 warmth is record breaking

I have more friends than you do accurate forecasts

Just like it was impossible that we were weren’t going to get at least one historic KU bomb from the best pattern in history last December

That makes zero sense. If the Nino doesn’t couple at all, then you are stuck with the same exact background system that’s been in place since 2019

The people who want a change from what we’ve seen since 2019 better hope this Nino changes things up in a big way or we’ll be stuck in the same rut we’ve been in since then. If you want a change then you want the Nino to couple or it’s just more of the same. Funny how the same people who were cheering on an El Niño last winter don’t want it to happen now

The 1982 super El Nino took until September to really take off

What a difference a year makes….