snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Just based on recent history (since 72-73) and the way the subsurface is starting to look, I’d have to say the chances are high that there’s a La Nina for fall, 2024. That said, a very, very long way to go obviously
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I know no one is going to want to hear this, but based on the current subsurface evolution, I think this El Nino very rapidly decays this spring and we go into yet another La Niña. Would not be surprised if we are knocking on the door of a weak La Niña next summer and have a healthy Niña event in place in the fall, 2024. Strong and super Nino events are very good at “killing” themselves come spring….
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You’ve been saying this since March. 5 months and counting. Just keep repeating it, eventually you’ll be right….
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On the bright side, nothing could possibly be worse than last winter, that was the floor, the only place to go is up. My area only had one 6+ storm at the tail end of February. November was a total dud, December, January and March had next to nothing and January/February was a wall to wall torch a rama. The only winter worse than that was 01-02….97-98, 11-12 and 19-20 weren’t even that bad
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Trailer park ratchet trash CAPE is back I see with his typical degenerate responses. If I lived in an area (Greensboro, Maryland) that gets 2 inches of snow total per year on average like you do, I’d be just as miserable as you are with your 2nd grade backwoods, rube education. Go back to the mid-Atlantic forum and wallow in your misery with the other people in that almost subtropical climate. You are the lowest form of life. Oxygen stealer
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He’s arguing that ‘57 started east-based with his QBO/solar composite. But yes I agree, it definitely did not end up that way
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Reading comprehension isn’t your strong point, so I’ll say it again…My guess for a final peak: between +2.1C - +2.5C
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The BOM is very clearly running too warm so far but as you pointed out the JMA has also been cool biased. I still think my guesstimate of this event hitting a peak between +2.1C - +2.5C in November/December is reasonable and well within the realm of possibilities. I believe the JMA peak of +1.7C is too cool, but even so, it’s still not that far off my peak range guess
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This is showing a well coupled El Niño by September
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At this point, I think the only question is, does this Nino become super in November/December? This event going strong is inevitable, basically guaranteed now
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This El Niño continues to be extremely east-based and the region 1+2 warmth is record breaking
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I have more friends than you do accurate forecasts
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Just like it was impossible that we were weren’t going to get at least one historic KU bomb from the best pattern in history last December
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That makes zero sense. If the Nino doesn’t couple at all, then you are stuck with the same exact background system that’s been in place since 2019
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The people who want a change from what we’ve seen since 2019 better hope this Nino changes things up in a big way or we’ll be stuck in the same rut we’ve been in since then. If you want a change then you want the Nino to couple or it’s just more of the same. Funny how the same people who were cheering on an El Niño last winter don’t want it to happen now
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The 1982 super El Nino took until September to really take off
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What a difference a year makes….
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Years ago, region 3 was used instead of 3.4 to determine ENSO strength. Paul Roundy wrote about this on twitter back in April. I believe it was sometime in the 80’s? That 3.4 became the new metric
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The IOD is going to go positive, but not to the extent that was being shown in June
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Past events not withstanding, this one may stay east-based
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Up until “recently”, region 3 was the one used to measure the strength of an El Niño event. Some mets still use region 3 instead of 3.4 for that
