snowman19

IMO if it does go basin-wide it has an east lean in regions 1+2 and 3. Where the actual main tropical convective forcing is if that happens is anyone’s guess

Agree. Maybe it goes basin-wide? That said, I very highly doubt a Modoki this year, if you look back at all the years that started off this extremely east-based, none of them went to a true Modoki configuration. My guess is that it either stays east-based (most likely) or it goes basin-wide

Region 3.4 is ahead of 1997 and 1982 at this point in time and we are more east-based

This is nothing at all like the El Niño fail of 2017

This is event developing like the El Niños of yester year….starting in regions 1+2 and 3 then expanding westward…..

I think we’re done with the Niña background state. The big +AAM run back in January proves it wants to change. As the El Nino continues to build I expect more +AAM/-SOI runs in the future as the atmosphere couples and feedsback as the Bjerknes effect gets stronger with time

A +IOD is starting to take shape, this is expected to really strengthen over the summer and constructively interfere with El Niño development

Paul Roundy thinks this WWB is going to be legit

The most detailed winter outlook I’ve ever seen. It didn’t work out like you thought but it also didn’t for some big name pros like HM, DT and Larry Cosgrove. HM completely missed the late Dec and Jan/Feb torch a rama, he thought the early-mid Dec blocking was going to lock in. Larry Cosgrove was expecting a 95-96 type of winter from Dec-Mar, a very bad bust for him and he kept saying it was coming right to the bitter end. DT thought it was going to be a big winter initially then he relented in Jan. I know I enjoyed reading through your forecast even though we disagree alot

Paul Roundy still gung ho about this being a very strong El Niño

So far, this Nino event is concentrated in regions 3 and 1+2. Back in the day, they used to use region 3 instead of 3.4 to officially determine Nino strength https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

You don’t ever see this….NOAA giving 94% odds of a very significant El Niño event this fall and early winter….

Not so sure the atmosphere isn’t responding….the SOI is dropping like a rock

Agree that this is an extremely east-based/eastern pacific Nino event, however, I can see it spreading and migrating west from 1+2 and 3 into 3.4 as some of the old time ones have done in the past. Granted there’s definitely some different background states this year as you mentioned

The south is cooler in strong/super Nino events simply because the STJ is juiced and roaring across that area all winter, bringing non stop cloud cover and precip

This event is forming like the old time strong/super El Niños prior to the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 events. The “old” events would start and get strong in regions 1+2 and 3, then migrate west from there into region 3.4. The 72-73 and prior major east-based El Niño events did this

The models keep getting warmer and warmer, caving towards the BOM, also, 3.4 just crossed the 0.5C threshold

It’s funny. You do exactly what you accuse me of. I have yet to see you ever predict anything but a cold and snowy winter and I’ve been on these forums for years. I’m sure if there’s an east-based super El Niño in place this fall you will find some excuse to still go cold and snowy. Absolutely no doubt in my mind, you will say the forcing is really central based or some other nit picked excuse to go snowy.