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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    Whatever you say. You’re the expert, I’ll defer to your professional, seasoned opinion since you know everything. You’re right, it’s going to become a Modoki by fall
  3. snowman19
    Yea, the ENSO regions are starting off warmer now than 1997 at this time, obvious differences are the strong -PDO, strong +AMO and the high solar this year, but we have the same MJO/WWB amplification, +IOD, east-based Nino development and -QBO as 1997 did, the 96-97 winter was cold-neutral ENSO
  4. snowman19
    East Pacific/east-based El Niño events historically shut down development in the Caribbean
  5. snowman19
    There aren’t many analogs for this summer…rapidly developing east-based El Niño, region 1+2 on fire, -QBO, -PDO, +IOD, high solar, +AMO…..not many good matches. Then the question becomes how strong does it get come this fall? As of right now, I think at least high-end strong isn’t far fetched at all
  6. snowman19
    There is absolutely no doubt in my mind whatsoever he will be using 57-58, 02-03, 09-10 and probably 76-77 as analogs, just like he does every year there is an El Niño. It’s mental illness
  7. snowman19
    After a very slight drop, region 1+2 has warmed back up to over +2.6C. Region 3 has begun to warm very rapidly, up to over +0.7C and climbing. The WWB in regions 3 and 1+2 doing it’s dirty work. Paul Roundy is predicting an extreme WWB next month. Uncharted territory right now https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png
  8. snowman19
    When a seasoned expert like Paul Roundy says an extreme El Nino event is coming, it’s probably time to listen…..
  9. snowman19
  10. snowman19
    Make no mistake about it a major El Niño is on the way….this isn’t the 2017 fail. Would not be surprised at all to see a high-end strong, possibly even super peak come late fall….
  11. snowman19
    Any bets on when Joe Bastardi starts the delusional ranting that this El Niño is really “west-based” or a “Modoki in disguise” and uses 57-58, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”?
  12. snowman19
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  15. snowman19
    If region 3.4 really does achieve super status, the AGW talk will be off the charts, that would be 2 super El Niños within a 10 year span
  16. snowman19
    02-03 and especially 09-10 are the strongest Central Pacific (CP)/Modoki Ninos you will ever see
  17. snowman19
    By the very nature of a super Nino event you would need a lot of warmth in the eastern regions to support and sustain that kind of warmth in region 3.4. A true Modoki setup would make that impossible. I suppose if you believe in Santa Clause, the Easter Bunny and Fairy Godmothers it’s possible….
  18. snowman19
    There is no such thing as a super Modoki El Niño
  19. snowman19
    Nino 1+2 has been on fire even cooled off, it’s still record breaking warm
  20. snowman19
  21. snowman19
    Up to this point in time, Nino 3.4 is warmer than it was back in 1982 and 1997
  22. snowman19
  23. snowman19
    Want to add how rare these strong WWBs in the East Pacific are….you normally don’t see them setting up in regions 3 and 1+2 like we are now and have been. It’s a testament to how east-based/EP this Nino is so far
  24. snowman19
    The 72-73 super El Niño developed with a -PDO. Rare? Yes. Impossible? No
  25. snowman19
    Yea, I think this is going to be a big one. When Paul Roundy says this one is for real, it’s probably for real
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