snowman19

If we had a -NAO block, this would have been a metro area snowstorm and probably a decent one at that

Not surprising, but the new EPS has begun a move north, which I’m sure will continue. These always move north in a lousy setup like this

We may be stuck in a warm pattern for most of December. The MJO wave is going to run into a wall of easterlies from the Niña and get ripped apart before it can propogate into phase 7. Classic model bias of exaggerating phase 7, which is why they kept going back and forth in the long range

Next week has interior New England and probably interior central and northern New England at that, written all over it. Marginal airmass, no arctic high locked in to the north, -PNA with a big low crashing into the west coast, +AO, neutral NAO, +EPO, neutral WPO, raging PAC jet, super fast flow, no blocking, northern branch shortwave may outrun the southern branch shortwave due to the very fast zonal flow and lack of blocking. It would be the definition of thread the needle and extremely good luck to get anything of significance (snow wise) here in the metro area:

The use of 95-96 as an analog for this winter was preposterous. A wishcast through and through.

It was actually the epic arctic cold and snow pattern that was supposed to lock in the east from Thanksgiving week until the New Year. That was hyped since early September by a certain someone lol Another monumental bust as usual

Very good consensus from this far out:

This is probably the strongest signal we’ve seen for a warm December since 2015

Evidence continuing to mount for a well above normal stretch coming up, the SPV problem also there:

Interior northern New England may get something out of it…..

We currently have one of the strongest ENSO standing waves on record:

We got lucky with the +PDO Nina’s since 2000. This year….different story. Also great point about those torched SSTs along and off the coast. They are just going to feedback into the SE Ridge/WAR

Last night’s ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were extremely ugly, +EPO, +AO, -PNA, +NAO, as far as the eye can see and they all have lost the -WPO look they had been advertising as well. The new CFS and CANSIPS runs for the month of December were equally as terrible

No, considering the EPO is positive and the WPO is neutral at the same time. I don’t think many expected the PAC to cooperate when we saw the strongest -PDO since 1955 and the coldest GOA since the late 1970’s. When you factor in the La Niña and -PMM (which strongly favors -PNA/RNA), it was obvious our chances this winter were going to have hinge on the AO/NAO

If December sucks in a Niña, it’s usually a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter

And if this is correct, we are not going to see -NAO for awhile:

I unfollowed him last winter he’s awful. His tweets are bipolar and it seems like he hasn’t a clue

It is going to take absolutely perfect timing to pull off a snowstorm next Monday; +NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, neutral WPO, roaring PAC jet. Not saying it can’t happen but when you depend on really good luck and perfect timing it normally doesn’t work out very well

The operational 6Z GFS at 180 hours….that’s guaranteed to verify Lmfaoo

Yea, let’s predict a +PNA for the entire month of December in a Niña approaching moderate status. Brilliant, should work out great. This guy isn’t even a meteorologist

@bluewave Here is the discussion on this with Griteater and Don Sutherland from last fall, 2020: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1959-met-winter-20-21-pattern-drivers-evolution/

One thing to keep in mind is an article HM wrote several years ago, A -QBO/Niña combo favors a flat Aleutian Ridge from Dec-Mar. On the other hand, A +QBO/Niña combo favors a poleward Aleutian Ridge from Dec-Mar

The current healthy -ENSO and background state in the PAC strongly supports the MJO continuing to stay stagnant in phases 4-6. Every attempt by the models to advance it beyond phase 6 has failed since September 1st

@bluewave We are in a very stagnant pattern for sure Don. And all that talk last month of a rapidly dying La Niña were wrong. We are about to see it go into moderate territory: