snowman19

The Nino has gone strong in region 3.4 on the CRW (over +1.5C), yesterday’s OISST update wasn’t far behind at over +1.44…..

I think it peaks a little later, December would be my guess. If I had to make an early guess right now, I can see the trimonthly ONI go something like +2.2C, +2.3C, +2.1C for NDJ. The models show that this Nino is going to be very slow to weaken after it peaks, through JFM. I also agree with Griteater that this event stays east-based/EP

@Volcanic Winter Could you offer some insight into this please?

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1694421806835450262?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I agree, given the renewed subsurface warming under regions 1+2 and 3 from the WWB/DWKW, I think this Nino stays a classic east-based/EP event, all the models show regions 1+2 and 3 staying warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January. Bjerknes (positive) feedback is already going in earnest in those regions. Also, as @Gawx pointed out, the OHC is climbing again and we are about to experience a strong round of -SOI…I’m going a little higher than you for the region 3.4 trimonthly ONI peak, I’m thinking +2.1C - +2.5C for NDJ. This +IOD was under forecasted IMO, I think we see a strong event, we’re already ahead of schedule and it just started. Strong +IOD correlates very well to +ENSO

The effects were on the southern hemisphere first, it took longer to migrate into the northern hemisphere

If anything the extreme amounts of water vapor in the stratosphere from Hunga Tonga argues for a cold stratosphere/strong SPV/++NAM, one factor I know but still…

From HM: https://x.com/antmasiello/status/1693972459962146932?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/antmasiello/status/1693979265379754146?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/antmasiello/status/1693975229322686476?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The monsoon has to end first, that will happen in early September

The reason why the IOD going positive is important is this….it is going to end the eastern hemispheric monsoon quickly, which should bolster the El Niño. According to the latest data, it’s climbing rather quickly, actually ahead of where it was forecasted to be at this point in time. Also, would appear the SOI has gone very solidly negative again https://x.com/jnmet/status/1694001198754570382?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Once the monsoon is gone, it’s all systems go time for the Nino. Good bye trade winds. IMO we will see the strong WWB and DWKWs you speak of. Here comes the +IOD assist

Correct, literally all the models show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than regions 3.4 and 4 right through January

As I mentioned above, the +IOD just officially got going on the new update (+0.79). Early next month, the monsoon circulation ends in the eastern hemisphere and that’s when this El Niño should get going and start really warming up. The end of the monsoon should kill the trade winds off in the central PAC and that’s when the WWB/DWKW activity begins in earnest

@GaWxRegion 3.4 is now over +1.4C on the OISST

The +IOD regime has started, jumped up to +0.79 on the new update

After about the 1st week of September, the monsoon circulation in the eastern hemisphere should completely collapse and that’s when the trades should fall apart/reverse and region 3.4 warming should really take off in a big way

If that reading isn’t a “glitch” in the OISST given the warmer CDAS and CRW, it’s not going to last long with the strong WWB ongoing in regions 1+2, 3 and eastern 3.4….

The BOM warm bias this year has been with ENSO, I haven’t seen the same bias with the IOD

Very good explanation of why this Nino is staying very east-based/EP

It’s projected to stay positive through January: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#tabs=Graphs&region=IOD

This Nino has been defying all the “rules” on how it’s “supposed” to develop for the last 6 months. Since March, we have been hearing about how it’s going to fail, collapse, not get any stronger than weak, nothing like this has ever happened before, it defies logic, we might go into a neutral/La Nada, it makes no sense, there’s no past precedent for it, it’s not developing anything like previous strong and super El Niños, the trade winds are killing it, the subsurface is killing it, the forcing is killing it, the PDO is killing it, the -PMM is killing it, the configuration makes zero sense….yet here we are on 8/19, way, way past the spring barrier with region 3.4 almost at official strong (+1.5C) status, region 3 at +2.0C and region 1+2 at over +3.0C and every new model run getting warmer and showing a super El Niño developing this fall

When there is an overwhelming ENSO signal (strong/super El Niño), it’s not hype, it’s going to alter the global heat budget and have a very profound effect on the global longwave pattern. In the absence of an overwhelming signal (weak/moderate Nino or Niña), then other factors may end up overriding it so to speak

I have no comment on snow, it’s too hard to predict because one storm like 2/83 or 1/16 in a super El Niño can skew the numbers. That said, if there’s an ONI of over +2C, I don’t see a cold winter (Dec-Mar), especially given AGW. If we do in fact get a trimonthly super peak as the models are showing, I just can’t imagine any month with -2F, -3F, etc. negative departures in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast. The STJ is going to flood the CONUS and Canada with maritime PAC air, it would be a raging firehose. The south may see -1F departures due to solar irradiance from constant raging STJ cloud cover

Actually I wasn’t talking about you, not sure why you felt the need to attack but whatever. And I haven’t given an opinion on where I think the forcing will be other than saying “wait until November”. I have however given my opinion on the ultimate strength of this El Nino which I believe will be a solidly super ONI peak for NDJ. As far as these climate models, I would err on the side of caution given their monumental, epic fail for the 19-20 winter. I will never forget the non stop climate model hype that summer and fall of the historic winter and historic blocking, cold, snow, that was coming for the east coast, boy oh boy was that a bust for the ages

I have a feeling the people who think the forcing is just going to stay pinned like a statue exactly where it is right now for the next 7 months because some of the climate models say so and show what they want, may be very disappointed come December…..