snowman19

Will be interesting for sure, some are saying the SPV stays strong through the end of the month, some saying it weakens. I’m not buying the EPS +PNA spike in the long range. First off, the EPS has a history of pumping phantom +PNAs in the long range only to back off as we get closer. The GEFS are already backing off the PNA. Second, this isn’t last year where the Niña never coupled. We now have a very well coupled, strengthening La Niña in place along with a strong -PDO and -PMM. I very seriously doubt any extended +PNA

If November turns out to be another above normal month, this will be one of the warmest met falls (Sept - Nov) in history

They are cold for part of Alaska lol

NOAA’s revised temperature outlook for November:

This has been the risk all along…warmer as we get further along in time….the models keep overestimating the “cold” in the long range. The beat goes on……November most likely turns out to be another AN month…..

As long as you have troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO), you aren’t getting arctic cold. That has to change. All -NAO/-AO would do is bring down PAC maritime junk air in that setup. I think we end up with yet another above normal month

I expect November to be yet another above normal month, nothing like October was, which was ridiculously warm, but something like a +1 - +2 AN month would not surprise me. After this week, we mild right back up again. You still have the troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO)….you aren’t going to get cold with that look

Stop listening to Joe Bastardi

Likely in large part thanks to the very persistent +EPO since the beginning of September, it’s been relentless. If November also averages a +EPO, it would be a very bad sign. Griteater’s new twitter thread explains in detail:

I see what you mean, massive solar flare/geomagnetic storm going on right now, just saw the news article on it. Supposedly the biggest solar storm and flux in years: https://timesofsandiego.com/tech/2021/10/29/giant-solar-flare-prompts-geomagnetic-storm-warning-for-halloween-weekend/

He’s irrelevant, been irrelevant for years. No one takes him, Henry Margusity or Judah Cohen seriously anymore.

This time around, the MJO is going to favor phases 4-6 (classic La Niña forcing). You have a very strongly coupled Niña this time around unlike last winter, where phases 1-3 were dominant.

It looks like it gets real mild again by mid-November, nothing like October was, but definitely above normal….question is what happens at the end of the month going into early December?

March, 2012 was ridiculous. I had to turn the a/c on a couple of days after St. Patrick’s Day. It was in the upper 80’s

After their absolutely abysmal performance predicting the AO/NAO last winter, I view all these models with extreme skepticism until proven otherwise. Last year at this time, all of them were showing raging ++AO and ++NAO for Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar……and they were dead wrong, literally could not have been more wrong

What are the potential effects of a high solar flux given the current background states? I really haven’t read too much into the solar aspects

Judah…..lmfaooooo hahahahaha What do JB and Henry Margusity say? Lol

No, you really don’t lol and 10-11 was a 1st year Niña coming off a Niño and it was +QBO lol

Once again, courtesy of the WAR, the cold can only progress so far east. Deja Vu of the last few years….the models are way too cold in the extended only to correct warmer the closer we get

You have no idea what you’re even talking about, literally none. 11-12 was -QBO also

Those SSTs along and off the east coast aren’t just warm, they are record warm. They are going to feedback into the WAR and SE ridge. Also, unlike last year, we have a very well coupled and strengthening La Niña, along with a strong -PDO and -PMM. Any +PNA is not going to sustain itself like last year, any PNA spike is going to be transient

@bluewaveOnce again, the models are correcting to the WAR as we get closer to the beginning of November. What once appeared “cold” in the long range isn’t so cold anymore

This is exactly why I would be hesitant to predict a cold November in the east. The SE ridge/WAR are feeding off those record super warm SSTs along and off the east coast, a positive feedback loop is in place. I also do not think you are going to sustain +PNA this time around, you have a coupled, strengthening La Niña, a very strong -PDO and a -PMM, any +PNA isn’t gong to be around very long

The problem is that some folks on Twitter are advertising that November is going to be a deep arctic freeze. That couldn’t be further from reality. It goes from insanely above normal to normal, maybe slightly below. You need to seed Canada with cold and that will take awhile. When we start November, all the air is still PAC maritime origin, not arctic or Siberian origin

It’s going to be PAC origin air until Canada gets seeded with cold, which is going to take awhile. You are going to need extended -EPO to do that. Transient -EPO won’t get it done