
snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Strong as of now
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This definitely is not looking anything like the El Niño fails of the past 2 decades, it means business. A Bjerknes feedback loop is going to get established, which will keep strengthening and reinforcing the Nino Walker circulation
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Here comes El Niño and there’s going to be another big one behind it in May
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The models absolutely nailed 15-16 and they did it early on too. It was actually a great job. I remember all the deep denials about how the models were severely overdoing the strength, it was going to fall apart, it was never going to reach super status, it was going to peak in August, then it was going to peak in September, it was going to be a Modoki, it was going to be west-based, it was weakening…..The wishcasts back then were truly a sight to behold. Joe Bastardi was the worst out of all of them. The fool actually used 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”
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All the models are showing a strong El Niño along with a -PDO for this upcoming winter. If that’s actually what happens, good luck finding analogs….maybe 72-73? But that was in a totally different climate era, pre AGW…
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Wrong as usual. I doubted strong I said high end moderate but I understand you have serious reading comprehension and memory problems
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Regardless of where the Nino is centered, it looks like it’s going to be a very major event
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IMO this one will either be basin-wide or east-based. I think Modoki/CP is off the table at this point. I also think this one goes strong, I doubt “super” at this point but I think there is a well above average chance at strong. The +IOD is only going to encourage further development through constructive interference
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Moderate to strongly positive IOD developing…this is only going to facilitate further Nino development as it constructively interferes
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This one is way different in that it’s forming in ENSO regions 1+2 and 3, something that has been extremely rare since 1997, which was also an eastern Pacific/EP Nino. I’ve read research which found that EP Ninos are more common in -PDO regimes, which would fit
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The extreme warmth has begun migrating into region 3, expect a big uptick there soon
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I agree
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Yes, in theory it would most likely eventually flip the PDO positive. That said, the 72-73 winter featured a -PDO for the entire winter and that was a super event
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Although “super” may be a stretch, I can easily see it going high-end strong. The developing +IOD looks like it means business, which supports beefed up Nino development. 1997 was +IOD. I also think this is going to be an EP/east-based event given how it has started to develop in regions 1+2 and 3. The Eastern Pacific (EP) Ninos in the past have developed in this way, also, the -PDO regime lends support to an east-based event, they much more common during negative PDO cycles
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This research classified 86-87 as an EP El Niño: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2651&context=etd
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A very significant El Niño for 23-24 is gaining more and more traction. The fact that we are in 3rd place right now behind only 82-83 and 97-98 is very telling, the big dogs developed as eastern Pacific Ninos like this one is so far
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Correct, so far this one is unique in that isn’t just an EP/east-based El Niño …it’s EXTREMELY east-based, with both SSTs and WWBs. This may end up being a record event in that regard. It does look like a very robust, possibly strong to very strong Nino event is on the way. The +IOD leads me to believe it’s going to continue to strengthen. And yea this year’s PDO is starting much lower than 1972
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So far, this event is developing as a classic eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, we are seeing strong warming in regions 1+2 and 3, we also had a very strong WWB/downwelling KW in those regions in March. Since 1980, the major EP El Niño events were: 82-83, 86-87, 97-98 and 06-07. The major central Pacific/Modoki (CP) El Niño events were: 94-95, 02-03, 04-05 and 09-10. There is also a strong +IOD event taking shape, which would support continuing El Niño development, 97 was also a strong +IOD year. Research has shown that EP Ninos are more common in -PDO regimes than are CP Ninos. This one should be interesting to follow…..
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I think the question will be does it become basin-wide or stays east-based. Unless something changes dramatically over the next several months (possible), I highly doubt a Modoki event. East-based events tend to be more frequent during -PDO cycles