snowman19

@donsutherland1 Looks like Joe Bastardi’s forecast of -5F for temps and 20+ inches of snow for NYC from 3/1 - 4/15 is in some trouble…..

Absolutely horrible performance from the Euro/EPS, HRRR, Ukie, ICON and NAM. NAM was beyond horrible. The RGEM/CMC totally schooled them and so did the GFS

Huge bust-a-rama for them, even NWS Boston had a foot plus. I only saw 2” up here in Sloatsburg, grass and car tops only, NWS Upton was calling for 4-6 at one point

December

No kidding. I have under an inch on the grass so far, smh

Sloatsburg dropped to 32F the last hour and nothing at all on the roads with the light snow falling. The mid-March sun angle means business, it will have to snow way harder than this to get anything on the pavement and sidewalks today, just grassy accumulations and cat tops

Good luck and God speed!

Storm vista snowmaps are so severely overdone it’s laughable. Not even close to reality. This is a typical mid March daytime white rain storm south of Orange County. I’m expecting an inch or 2 on grassy surfaces here in Rockland l, not going to stick on roadways today

33 mod snow, not sticking to pavement dusting on grassy surfaces/cars

The 3k is wayyyy east of the 12k. Dreadful model, not even worth looking at anymore. NWS should discontinue it

The RGEM was hinting at a similar scenario. This one may be DOA. And yea, March, 2001 vibes big time with this one…..

The Euro and EPS did God awful the last 2 weeks. Terrible. The RGEM/CMC and GFS just schooled it again with this storm, full cave. The NAM is equally as horrific. Yet another “great pattern”, “unbelievable potential”, “buckle up, historic” falls by the way side. 5 months in a row of “potential” with zippo, nada to show for it. This is a 1-2 inch event up here in Rockland, maybe and nothing for NYC, LI. Just like this past weekend. Non event

The UKMET did cutback some. Those 10:1 snow maps people insist on continuing to use are going to be laughably inaccurate and so overdone it’s not going to be funny. Ratios are going to be 5:1, maybe 7:1 if you’re lucky. I’m riding the RGEM/CMC/GFS like Sea Biscuit. The NAM (12k, 3k) is going to cutback 85% of what it just showed by tomorrow morning, that run was Lmfaoooo worthy, pure comedy. I think the Euro caves in the next couple of runs with that bogus juiced up inverted trough it was showing, which IMO isn’t happening. As far as the ICON, it already cutback from what it was showing last night and it’s resolution isn’t the best. This storm hasn’t changed since Friday. Like I said before and these latest runs haven’t changed my mind. This is an I-84 north major snowstorm with minimal accumulations south of there

The Euro is going to be dead wrong IMO. That inverted trough feature is BS

Those Storm Vista 10:1 ratio snow maps are so severely overdone it’s not even funny. They are extremely and I mean extremely inaccurate. The Kuchera snow map on piviotal weather doesn’t look anything close to that, like not even in the ballpark. Ratios are going to be like 5:1

It’s actually a revolutionary idea called “changing my mind”. After the Euro’s wretched performance this winter, I’d say it’s equally as horrible. You change with the times my man. Things change…. Happy Daylight Savings Time [emoji2]

This storm hasn’t changed since Friday IMO, still an I-84 north special. Little accumulation south of there, really a non event. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031206&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs

Those 10:1 ratio maps are severely overdone

Throw it in the trash. Not even worth looking at that model at 84 hours, it’s even dreadful at 36 hours

34F rain/snow mix, it just started mixing with wet snow the last 15 minutes here in Sloatsburg. We will be lucky to see a coating/dusting here

The NAM sucks. This storm has I-84 north special written all over it. I think there’s going to be little accumulation south of 84. Mostly a rain event in the NYC metro

This is probably a 24+ storm inland. Question is how far inland?

The northern branch keeps dropping in earlier with every run, that keeps up and it will definitely get tugged west, which I think happens. I think it ultimately runs inland

This is going to be an inland snowstorm. NYC/coast/LI are not going to see much at all IMO. Rockland/Westchester/Bergen/Passaic might not either. I can see this easily becoming an I-84 north special

All the 0z runs all trended worse for tonight/tomorrow morning. The WWA is going to be way overdone. 4-6 inches is not happening. This is an inch or 2 at best NW of NYC, 2 being the max