snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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You are going to have to depend on strong dynamic cooling. Unless there is an amped up storm with strong UVVs and heavy precip rates to cause dynamic cooling and bring down cold air from aloft, it’s going to be rain. Lack of cold and approaching mid-March
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@40/70 Benchmark If this is correct, it looks like an east-based El Niño is starting to develop:
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Just based on the 500mb the new Euro is going to look absolutely nothing at all like 0z
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The RGEM has nothing at all. Zip zero. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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There was also good op Euro and EPS support for a major snowstorm here this weekend too
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I’ll take “Things that aren’t going to happen” for $500 Alex….
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I agree. This one is going the wrong way IMO. I don’t trust the Euro/EPS anymore. It’s definitely not what it used to be
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IMO, next weekend’s setup doesn’t look as favorable as it did yesterday. Here’s a good visual on why
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I agree. There are multiple issues post 3/15, besides the climo ones you mentioned, length of day and sun angle are also big issues
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If next weekend is a fail we will be running out of time very very quickly at that point
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There is an inland runner risk for sure, long way to go though
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I think you can definitely rule out a cutter with that block. An inland runner is a possibly though as is a coastal track and OTS but I think you can definitely eliminate a cutter option
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Jackpotted next Sunday! What could possibly go wrong??? [emoji23][emoji23]
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Based on the new model runs I believe there’s little if any snow south of I-84. It most likely starts as brief snow/sleet and goes to rain south of 84. The new runs have less than an inch of snow for Rockland
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None of the 0z models have more than an inch of snow even up here in Rockland, most have no snow at all. The midlevels are torched by the time the precip starts. It’s sleet to rain at best south of I-84
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Everyone discounting the GFS and throwing it out needs to remember it was the first one to show Friday/Saturday as being a non event. The Euro and CMC kept showing a snowstorm this weekend run after run. Not saying the GFS is going to be right, but I would not just toss it in the trash either
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Happy Met Spring everyone! [emoji854]
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If that’s really a trend and not more than noise from the 18z GFS, other models need to follow suit at 0z tonight
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Right, because you know there’s definitely going to be a massive, historic KU climbing the coast with 24”+ and -30F below normal highs. There are no definites in weather and for the most part, in life
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The thing is, people are looking at those maps and saying “oh my God it’s going to be -8 below normal!” But that’s -8 below normal for a normal high on March 12th, which is cold by 3/12 standards but we’re not talking 20’s for highs lol You have to temper expectations based on climo, we will be approaching mid-March at that point
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Best to keep expectations tempered for this reason
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Ratios are going to be around 8:1
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The models show 725-750mb getting torched very quickly. I can see more sleet than a big dump of snow at the onset, even north and west of NYC. Warm noses are always badly undermodeled at this range. Verbatim there would be fairly intense WAA at 725-750mb with the low level jet punching in
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It’s called being realistic, not negative. Is it going to get cold relative to March averages starting on 3/10 and beyond? Yes, if the models are correct. Is there going to be a parade of KU’s up the coast a la March, 2018? Incredibly doubtful
