snowman19

It’s actually rivaling 97-98. This is very clearly an east-based El Niño developing right now, something we haven’t seen in over 20 years (97-98), pretty much every event since then has been a Modoki. Region 1+2 is on fire and region 3 is warming at an extremely rapid pace. Does this continue into the summer? Who knows but this is quite the event taking shape as of now

And a healthy +IOD is developing. Region 1+2 is on fire right now and region 3 is also warming extremely rapidly. If this continues into the summer (big If) I think there may be a shot at a strong/super El Niño, but way, way too early

I don’t see it either. Who knows how ENSO will look 9 months from now, whether it will be east-based or not. The striking thing is that it’s been decades (97-98) since we have seen an El Niño develop like this. Pretty much all the Nino events since then have been Modoki’s. Does this continue? Who knows but so far this is way out of the norm for the last 20 years. This may be -PDO regime related:

I’m stating fact you vapid little airhead. This event is very clearly developing as east-based, does it stay that way who knows? But right now, it is definitely not a Modoki event taking shape. Don’t believe me? Get go on twitter and argue it out with HM and Paul Roundy, who both say this is developing as an east-based El Niño. Sorry, but that’s reality

The peepers were out here last night. Definite sign that spring has arrived

You live in Philadelphia right? You have a less than zero % chance to see a snowstorm on the 28th

The fact that he’s doubled down is really mind blowing, makes you wonder about his mental state

Paul Roundy thinks this may be a strong to very strong El Niño and this doesn’t like a Modoki event either. It looks like an east-based El Niño is taking shape, something we haven’t seen in many years, although, more typical during -PDO regimes

He’s going down with the ship this year. Still hyping cold and snow for the east coast through 4/15. That guy has totally lost his mind, delusional, he really needs to retire. Crash and burn. The dude is Casey Jones now

The thing that helped 15-16 was the fact that even though it was a super El Niño, it wasn’t severely east-based like 97-98. The 97-98 Nino actually had a secondary area of forcing in ENSO 1+2 where the SSTs were on fire and it displaced the Aleutian low way east over AK (++EPO). The EPO floodgates were wide open and there was nothing but Pacific maritime air and no cold/arctic to be had in Canada or the CONUS. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-AO but the PAC side was so horrific it completely overwhelmed and it didn’t matter

It’s been bad since 2/22. I’ve had 2 plowable storms since then (3/12/22 and 2/27-28/23). Record stretch of basically snowless up here

@donsutherland1 Looks like Joe Bastardi’s forecast of -5F for temps and 20+ inches of snow for NYC from 3/1 - 4/15 is in some trouble…..

Absolutely horrible performance from the Euro/EPS, HRRR, Ukie, ICON and NAM. NAM was beyond horrible. The RGEM/CMC totally schooled them and so did the GFS

Huge bust-a-rama for them, even NWS Boston had a foot plus. I only saw 2” up here in Sloatsburg, grass and car tops only, NWS Upton was calling for 4-6 at one point

December

No kidding. I have under an inch on the grass so far, smh

Sloatsburg dropped to 32F the last hour and nothing at all on the roads with the light snow falling. The mid-March sun angle means business, it will have to snow way harder than this to get anything on the pavement and sidewalks today, just grassy accumulations and cat tops

Good luck and God speed!

Storm vista snowmaps are so severely overdone it’s laughable. Not even close to reality. This is a typical mid March daytime white rain storm south of Orange County. I’m expecting an inch or 2 on grassy surfaces here in Rockland l, not going to stick on roadways today

33 mod snow, not sticking to pavement dusting on grassy surfaces/cars

The 3k is wayyyy east of the 12k. Dreadful model, not even worth looking at anymore. NWS should discontinue it

The RGEM was hinting at a similar scenario. This one may be DOA. And yea, March, 2001 vibes big time with this one…..

The Euro and EPS did God awful the last 2 weeks. Terrible. The RGEM/CMC and GFS just schooled it again with this storm, full cave. The NAM is equally as horrific. Yet another “great pattern”, “unbelievable potential”, “buckle up, historic” falls by the way side. 5 months in a row of “potential” with zippo, nada to show for it. This is a 1-2 inch event up here in Rockland, maybe and nothing for NYC, LI. Just like this past weekend. Non event

The UKMET did cutback some. Those 10:1 snow maps people insist on continuing to use are going to be laughably inaccurate and so overdone it’s not going to be funny. Ratios are going to be 5:1, maybe 7:1 if you’re lucky. I’m riding the RGEM/CMC/GFS like Sea Biscuit. The NAM (12k, 3k) is going to cutback 85% of what it just showed by tomorrow morning, that run was Lmfaoooo worthy, pure comedy. I think the Euro caves in the next couple of runs with that bogus juiced up inverted trough it was showing, which IMO isn’t happening. As far as the ICON, it already cutback from what it was showing last night and it’s resolution isn’t the best. This storm hasn’t changed since Friday. Like I said before and these latest runs haven’t changed my mind. This is an I-84 north major snowstorm with minimal accumulations south of there

The Euro is going to be dead wrong IMO. That inverted trough feature is BS