snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Region 3.4 (+1.72C - highest of this event) and region 3 (+2.2C) SSTs are soaring rapidly, -SOI has also strengthened. This Nino is off to the races: Nino 3.4: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png Nino 3: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino3.png SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
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This month and next month is when you want to monitor the SPV and stratospheric temperatures to get an idea of possible effects coming up this winter from all the record volcanic (Hunga Tonga) water vapor that has saturated the arctic/polar stratosphere on our side of the hemisphere
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Should see some real good warming in 3.4 and 3 now. DWKW. And the +IOD continues to strengthen rapidly as well
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It already coupled:
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It was for the NYC metro area…
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I fully expected February and March to be lost causes last winter, I did not expect the unmitigated December and January disasters though in spite of the healthy 3rd year La Niña however
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I can easily see this eclipsing +2.0C in November: Region 3.4: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png Region 3 and 1+2: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino3.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png
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It appears some healthy warming is imminent: “Do you think this Nino will reach super status?”
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You’re right about that, maybe they should have said the strongest event in the last 20 years? Although this one may very well rival 1997’s event. One thing is for sure, this Nino is coupling now:
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Regardless of what happens with ENSO between now and December it does appear that we will have a new +IOD record on our hands:
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+IOD standing wave in place now
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I’m calling it now, IMO we go above +2.0C in region 3.4 come the 1st week of November and November will average at least +2.1C. That will be the 1st month of the trimonthly super peak. I’m also calling that this +IOD becomes stronger than the 2019 event, peaks in early November and lasts longer than 19-20 did, doesn’t go neutral until February
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Potential Hunga Tonga effects aside, that study has some pretty convincing evidence that the NAM and NAO may not be as favorable as some think due to the very strong +IOD event and the effects from that
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It is definitely east-based/EP when looking at raw SSTs and the EP look is about to be reinforced. I would also wait until November before declaring that this has no chance of becoming super either
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I’m not so sure we see a predominantly -NAO this winter here’s why: Study link: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1005
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@brooklynwx99 https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1712052777453527330?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw FWIW the new JMA still gets it to super
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I don’t care about that model. I posted it for their disco
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New BOM update: https://ow.ly/MjnY50PVpMh
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Here comes the parade of Nino linked typhoons
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This is why I still think this Nino goes super:
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I’m going down with the ship I guess. I still think it goes super
