snowman19
-
Posts
8,848 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by snowman19
-
Those Storm Vista 10:1 ratio snow maps are so severely overdone it’s not even funny. They are extremely and I mean extremely inaccurate. The Kuchera snow map on piviotal weather doesn’t look anything close to that, like not even in the ballpark. Ratios are going to be like 5:1
-
It’s actually a revolutionary idea called “changing my mind”. After the Euro’s wretched performance this winter, I’d say it’s equally as horrible. You change with the times my man. Things change…. Happy Daylight Savings Time [emoji2]
-
This storm hasn’t changed since Friday IMO, still an I-84 north special. Little accumulation south of there, really a non event. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031206&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs
-
Those 10:1 ratio maps are severely overdone
-
Throw it in the trash. Not even worth looking at that model at 84 hours, it’s even dreadful at 36 hours
-
34F rain/snow mix, it just started mixing with wet snow the last 15 minutes here in Sloatsburg. We will be lucky to see a coating/dusting here
-
The NAM sucks. This storm has I-84 north special written all over it. I think there’s going to be little accumulation south of 84. Mostly a rain event in the NYC metro
-
This is probably a 24+ storm inland. Question is how far inland?
-
The northern branch keeps dropping in earlier with every run, that keeps up and it will definitely get tugged west, which I think happens. I think it ultimately runs inland
-
This is going to be an inland snowstorm. NYC/coast/LI are not going to see much at all IMO. Rockland/Westchester/Bergen/Passaic might not either. I can see this easily becoming an I-84 north special
-
All the 0z runs all trended worse for tonight/tomorrow morning. The WWA is going to be way overdone. 4-6 inches is not happening. This is an inch or 2 at best NW of NYC, 2 being the max
-
This is going to be 1-2 feet + of snow inland. Question is how far inland? Rockland/Bergen/Westchester/Passaic inland (option 1)? Or Sussex/Orange/Putnam/Ulster/I-84 north inland (Option 2)? My guess is the west trend is real and it’s option #2. I don’t think NYC, coast and LI get much out of it (either option) and if a west trend continues neither will Westchester/Rockland/Bergen/Passaic
-
Before my time, but I looked up the stats, the period from 1979-1993 was the absolute worst for snowfall here. The worst 14 year consecutive period in the last 45 years. People on this board would have completely lost their minds back then
-
The 6z runs are starting to show a New England special. Capture happens too late for us and the storm doesn’t really wrap up and crank until it’s at New England’s latitude
-
Same result….still 1-2 area wide: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030818&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
-
Not even worth arguing about an operational run this far away. It is not going to play out anything like that in reality. Also of note the Euro is the only model showing this
-
It still looks like a 1-2 inch event, especially north and west of the city
-
My guess is an inch or 2 at best north and west of NYC. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 inch amounts but that would be the ceiling IMO. Marginal setup. Take the under
-
Friday night/Saturday looks like a 1-2 inch maybe 3 inch (in spots) event especially north and west of NYC IMO. The city itself might not see much at all. Next week might possibly be more impressive?
-
Agree. You aren’t getting 10:1 ratios during those waves. The Kuchera is actually closer to reality
-
That Euro run was very unimpressive. Using the Kuchera, it has 1-2 inches of snow, total, in the metro area over the next 10 days. Not so much as a peep from Bernie Rayno, which is very telling. When he doesn’t think there’s a legit snow threat for the east coast he doesn’t post anything. If he thought this weekend and next week was a legit threat he’d be all over it right now
-
In reality on Saturday, that’s all white rain and non accumulating slop. Temps are in the mid to upper 30’s, during the day, approaching mid-March. Those 10:1 maps are going to be way overdone
-
NWS Upton is not buying any snow for Saturday. They are calling for rain even up here in Rockland County. No cold air
-
It’s all going to be dynamic cooling dependent snow. No real cold air in place, no arctic connection. If there isn’t strong lift and heavy QPF rates it’s going to be rain. All dependent on bringing cold down from aloft/creating its own cold air. Pray for a strong wrapped up coastal low with a decent track and real good UVVs
-
You are going to have to depend on strong dynamic cooling. Unless there is an amped up storm with strong UVVs and heavy precip rates to cause dynamic cooling and bring down cold air from aloft, it’s going to be rain. Lack of cold and approaching mid-March
