snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Region 4 has dropped pretty sharply to -0.6C , but the coldest anomalies are definitely not focused there
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Region 4 had been strongly biased warm for over 10 years. Last year it finally broke the trend and ENSO 4 got cold for the first time in a very long time. Not sure what it does later on in this fall and the winter, but right now the cold anomalies aren’t focused there. I think they end up focusing in region 3.4 as we move into the winter and the models are all agreeing with that so far
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@40/70 BenchmarkIf this really does become a true central Pacific La Niña for late fall and the winter, would it change your forecast? Or no because it’s weak?
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Lol No one in their right mind takes Judah Cohen, Joe Bastardi or Henry Margusity seriously anymore. I would call them clowns but that would be an insult to clowns….
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I was 4 lol
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Oh yea definitely a -AO/-NAO driven winter. The PAC side was also favorable that winter even with the Niña. It was just wall to wall cold and snowy from November right through the end of March. It was one of those winters that found a way to snow
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95-96 was strange because it was strong +PDO which is very odd with a healthy La Niña in place, even for a 1st year Niña in that case. It was also +PMM which probably lead to the juiced up STJ
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Did they give a reason as to why? We have gone into a -PMM since late last winter, that would seemingly support a weak/inactive subtropical jet
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Not really IMO maybe @CoastalWx and @40/70 Benchmarkcan chime in, but the 1960’s-1970’s saw an extremely negative PDO cycle and some of the deepest -NAO/-AO periods on record
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This is the deepest -PDO we’ve seen in many years. You can see the classic “cold ring” developing over the last month.
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Aren’t the overwhelming majority of 2nd year La Nina’s CP/Modoki? I remember reading a research article about that maybe 6 or 7 years ago. I’ll try to find it again
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This goes into some detail about the Niña/QBO/Aleutian ridge relationship also mentions HM’s research: https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/56240977/griteaters-winter-outlook-16-17
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I wouldn’t be either if I lived in New England
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It’s central based for sure….however, if Coastalwx is right and this event goes low-end moderate….I would not want to be south of New England this winter
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Are there any analogs for 2nd year weak La Niña (Modoki), -QBO, rising solar, -PDO?
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Good write up. About the Aleutian ridge….HM wrote an article back in 2012 showing that La Niña/-QBO results in a flat Aleutian ridge while La Niña/+QBO results in a poleward Aleutian ridge.
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Yep I remember the November runs getting stronger with the +AO/+NAO they were showing, it was unanimous at that point. All the models missed it
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The models were an abysmal failure for last winter. Every one of them insisted on raging +AO/+NAO run after run after run.
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It was a 3 week winter for the NYC metro area. 2/1 - 2/22 and that was all she wrote, over and done, nothing else after that in March or April. December had the one snowstorm mid month that was all melted in less than a week and it was in the 60’s by Christmas Eve. Nothing at all in January. Had it not been for the SSW which lead to the 3 week period of NAO blocking in February, that would have been one of the worst winters ever
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Don’t really buy into the solar arguments we have had horrible mild winters during low solar periods. The people who were boasting low solar means cold and snowy winter got burned badly. IMO it’s on par with the whole Siberian snowcover/SAI index, epic fail after epic fail
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The HRRR and NAM are showing one hell of an intense rain band forming and sitting over SE NY/ northern NJ for awhile tonight. If that’s correct you are going to have major flooding issues there
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2010-2011 is not an analog IMO. It came off a healthy El Niño the year before, remember us having a strong STJ early on that winter, atypical for a Niña, we are in a multi-year La Niña right now. I don’t remember what the solar cycle was doing in late 2010, the QBO was positive, the -PDO is the same so far but that’s about it. It also was not a Modoki Niña, it started east-based early on then moved west, which is a typical Niña progression
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I don’t think there are many analogs for this upcoming winter….weak Modoki La Niña, following a moderate Niña, -QBO, rapidly rising solar, -PDO. I remember a few years ago, HM wrote an article showing that a La Niña/-QBO combo results in a flat Aleutian ridge, conversely, a La Niña/+QBO combo results in a poleward Aleutian high. I don’t see this winter being an easy one to predict, it’s still extremely early though
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Just IMO we are going the need the AO and NAO to really cooperate this winter. HM wrote an article a few years ago that showed La Niña/-QBO leads to a flat Aleutian ridge, as opposed to La Niña/+QBO leading to a poleward Aleutian ridge. Assuming a -QBO, -PDO, weak Modoki Niña following a moderate Niña, rapidly increasing solar….I would think the PAC side will most likely be garbage, but I guess stranger things have happened, still very, very early
