snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The CMC caved to the GFS
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If that starts getting delayed much beyond March 10th, start worrying
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I don’t know why anyone is using 10:1 ratio snow maps for this event. They are wayyyy overdone and inaccurate. And let’s see what the other models do at 12z and 0z. Is it the NAM being the NAM or the start of a trend?
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No, it’s really not. It’s consistently showing an inland runner setup, small movements run to run are noise
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The new RGEM is 2-4 area wide. Looks like this will be the 1st plowable snowfall in Sloatsburg since 3/12/22. Insane, almost an entire year without a plowable snow. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022606&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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The new NAM shows the risk for Mon/Tues….it absolutely torches the midlevels. Gives 1 inch total of snow even up here in Rockland. Yes, I know the NAM isn’t good but in the past, it has done a pretty good job of picking up on midlevel warming/warm tongues where no other model had it. Has this as a ping fest. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023022506&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Either way, you are not getting 10:1 ratios on Monday, it’s going to be lower than that
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Levi Cowan did a write up on it a few years ago, but the UKMET 10:1 ratio snowmaps are badly overdone. They count sleet as snow
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We are not New England. Post 3/15 becomes very difficult to sustain cold and snow at this latitude minus freak, anomalous events. Climo, sun angle and length of day are all working against you big time by then. By the end of March, you have an August sun overhead
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Are we talking “cold” relative to mid-late March climo standards?
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Given that primary, parent low cutting into the lakes and the still absolutely horrible PAC at the time I would not at all be surprised if the primary holds on longer than what is currently being modeled and 2/28 turns into a mainly rain event south of I-84. If those mid level low tracks are correct, the mid level torch is being grossly underestimated by the models right now, which is typical at this range. This could easily turn into a SWFE by the end of the weekend
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15 days away….do we really believe the -PNA just goes away or is this yet another day 15 “great pattern” mirage on the ensembles? I can definitely buy the -NAO, but the PNA flip? Color me very skeptical
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And the GFS is very likely too far south with 2/28. Its bias at play again. A CMC scenario is the most likely outcome
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Are you a weather fan? Or only a cold and snow fan?
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The Euro with a monster storm on 3/4. Plows a deeply occluded 958mb low into Illinois
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Yep. Given that setup, it would take an absolutely perfect, everything has to go exactly right, Miller B transfer to bring NYC a major snowstorm
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If I lived in New England, especially central and northern New England I’d be gung-ho about next week too
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The winter of day 9-10 “threats” lol
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Saturday has absolutely screaming fast flow. I don’t think it amounts to anything but I guess stranger things have happened
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If there is an actual legit threat window, it’s probably something like 3/8-3/16. It’s way out there but the -NAO will be decaying at that point and the -PNA might relax somewhat (that’s not saying much) but assuming it’s still even cold enough at that point, it may be the “last gasp” if that’s what you want to call it. Past that point, it’s over, stick a fork in it IMO. I think Sat/Sun is a weak sauce nothing burger and 2/28 is a massive cutter. Low confidence on the 3/8-3/16 idea right now though
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The only model showing any interest in Sat/Sun is the UKMET. The CMC is a sheared, disjointed strung out mess like the GFS, ICON and last night’s EURO
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If the weeklies and GEFS ext are correct and we get a retrograded west based -NAO block setup come 3/12 on…what good does it feasibly do for us (snow/cold wise) at that point in time given our latitude, sun angle, climo and length of day?
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The EURO strengthened the -PNA big time going into early March at 12z. It has snow into the higher elevations of Baja. This is nuts, the 534 line is into Mexico https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022012&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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@donsutherland1 Turns out MJO phase 8 isn’t as cold on the composites in March as it is in Dec, Jan, Feb…so even if it gets there, it’s not going to live up to the hype
