snowman19

Some on twitter are in panic mode right now that this event may go moderate and also be a late peak

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter

Mike Masco is Joe Bastardi Jr lol

I read that paper, good stuff. The questions now become, 1, after the upcoming recovery, how strong does the vortex become by the end of November/beginning of December and 2, are there more warmings coming down the road?

Great post. I’m seeing tweets from amateurs proclaiming that it’s going to get cold, all they see is a +PNA and -NAO and think that means cold….not when all you’re doing is trapping PAC maritime air with the blocks….cooler? Yes. Cold? Not with that setup, the EPO is still +

You don’t believe that if it wasn’t for the SSW, that would have been a horrible winter? It saved February

The only thing that saved last winter from being a wall to wall dumpster fire was the SSWE in January that gave us 3 weeks of winter in February (2/1-2/22). It was a 3 week winter, the one lone snowstorm in mid-December that was melted down to nothing in less a week, 60’s on Christmas Eve. Nothing at all in January, nothing at all in March. Had it not been for that SSW, it would have been one of the worst winters of all time, right up there with 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12

I never made a winter forecast last year lol

If it gets colder later next month it will come from a PAC reshuffle with the tropical convective forcing, not from some crazy SSW and super weak SPV like Joe Bastardi has been hyping to no end for the last 2 months. His wishcast of a major SSW/super weak SPV causing an uber cold November - January looks to be an epic fail incoming

Evidence is mounting for a rebound and strengthening of the SPV next month:

Yep, we’ve been hearing that the +PNA/-EPO pattern has been coming since September 1st…..eventually it will get here….

If he’s correct and a AK/GOA vortex is a persistent, semi-permanent feature this winter, we are in a lot of trouble. An AK/GOA vortex is a mega torch pattern for the CONUS and Canada

Yea, I would definitely not be comfortable forecasting a cold and or snowy November in the east right now, after weakening initially early in November, the SPV looks to completely recover and strengthen by month’s end. Also, you have a coupled, strengthening La Niña, strong -PDO, -PMM and the SSTs along and off the east coast are blazing right now, they are going to help feedback into the WAR/SE ridge. The PAC has wanted to stay -PNA/+EPO/+SOI since the beginning of September, it’s been a very persistent, stagnant pattern there. Also, unlike last year’s east-based event, this Niña is definitely more central-based:

There are actually signs now that after an initial weakening of the SPV in early November, that it recovers and becomes strong and the stratosphere goes cold by the end of the month:

Not necessarily, there have been warmer than normal October and November in the past that lead to cold/snowy winters. The problem is when all 3 months (September, October, November) are warmer than normal, that it almost always leads to a bad outcome

Maybe it changes for December, but I don’t see anything to support a large scale pattern change in the PAC by November. The PAC, as is, definitely does not support any sustained cold, it’s been the same stagnant pattern there since the beginning of September

I’m starting to very seriously doubt a cold November, in fact I think it’s another warmer than normal month. We have a strengthening, coupled La Niña in place and I don’t see any reason for the -PNA/+EPO/-PDO/-PMM/+SOI to let up. Even if a -NAO/-AO was to develop with a PAC like that, all it would do is trap the junk maritime Pacific air flooding into Canada. We would need a large scale full pattern change in the PAC and I just don’t see it happening by next month, it’s a stagnant pattern there

If November is also a warmer than normal month, that should seal it as a 1st or 2nd warmest met fall ever. September was also way above normal

We will have to see if it actually downwells into the lower stratosphere and troposphere, last week the models weren’t showing that happening. Also, HM just pointed this fact out:

Very interesting. Last winter, it was so far south it was linking up with the WAR

Yep, assuming that’s correct, it’s showing the same weird -NAO/-AO structure that we had in Dec and Jan last winter

Definitely the strongest -PDO/-PMM since 2011

How did the January’s of those winters go? Just looking at this strong signal for October, it’s suggestive of ++EPO with deep cold over Alaska come January:

Yes. And there in lies the problem….the upper level strato warming has to downwell into the troposphere or it’s useless. I’m not saying that’s what is going to happen but if it doesn’t, the flip to a cold November idea is going to have serious problems

Agree with this. Still very early obviously but I’m not so sure that the flip to a cold November narrative being pushed by some is going to work out this time around, there are some glaring hints right now that the major pattern change to cold in November idea may be in some trouble