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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    It doesn’t matter if it’s east-based or basin-wide once it gets to super status. There’s no such thing as Modoki/central pacific super Ninos, they are either Eastern Pacific or basin-wide. 15-16 was a basin-wide super event and it was a torch. We got lucky with one storm that winter
  3. snowman19
    I’m more interested in what the ultimate strength of the El Nino is. If it goes super (+2.0C or above), it will be a very, very easy winter forecast…..blowtorch…just like 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 were. Then all you can do is pray for a real lucky, well timed snowstorm when you actually have cold air, like 1/16 and 1/83
  4. snowman19
    The Euro seasonal has an extremely east-based/Eastern Pacific (EP) canonical El Niño:
  5. snowman19
    Correct, however, the POAMA (BOM) and CANSIPS are both showing similar outcomes
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  7. snowman19
    If the El Nino is that strong and east-based like the Euro Seasonal is showing, that outlook makes no sense. It’s going to strengthen the tropical Atlantic trade winds and there will be wind shear from the PAC galore. At the very least, it would shut down the Caribbean
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    Also, 97-98 was -QBO, like this year…. And although it didn’t come off a Niña, the 96-97 winter was cold neutral ENSO
  10. snowman19
    A late November peak sounds about right. The 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 events all peaked in late November
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  15. snowman19
    If this turns into an El Niño fail (A La 2017) a whole lot of pros and experts are going to look really, really stupid….CPC/NOAA, BOM, PAGASA, Paul Roundy, HM, Mike Ventrice, Jason Nicholls, World Climate Service, Accuweather, Commodity Wx Group, The Weather Channel, Eric Webb, Ben Noll, Phil Klotzbach, DT, JB, Matt Lanza, Rob Carlmark, Simon Lee…..
  16. snowman19
    So far, both Nino 3 and 1+2 are the warmest ENSO regions. Nino 3 is now +0.7C and has been warming rapidly since the end of March https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png
  17. snowman19
  18. snowman19
    So much for region 1+2 dropping. It appears Bjerknes feedback is setting up, if that’s what’s happening it’s going to sustain that warmth and continue to migrate into region 3. Studies have shown Bjerknes feedback is enhanced when it sets up over the eastern ENSO regions. See this study https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5#:~:text=El%20Niño%2DSouthern%20Oscillation%20
  19. snowman19
  20. snowman19
    The overwhelming majority of ENSO events (Ninos and Niñas) normally peak in late fall, then begin to weaken….both 2015-16 and 1997-98 peaked the last week of November then began to weaken after that. If I’m not mistaken, 1982-83 was also an end of November peak….
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  23. snowman19
    Whatever you say. You’re the expert, I’ll defer to your professional, seasoned opinion since you know everything. You’re right, it’s going to become a Modoki by fall
  24. snowman19
    Yea, the ENSO regions are starting off warmer now than 1997 at this time, obvious differences are the strong -PDO, strong +AMO and the high solar this year, but we have the same MJO/WWB amplification, +IOD, east-based Nino development and -QBO as 1997 did, the 96-97 winter was cold-neutral ENSO
  25. snowman19
    East Pacific/east-based El Niño events historically shut down development in the Caribbean
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