snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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If the El Nino is that strong and east-based like the Euro Seasonal is showing, that outlook makes no sense. It’s going to strengthen the tropical Atlantic trade winds and there will be wind shear from the PAC galore. At the very least, it would shut down the Caribbean
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Also, 97-98 was -QBO, like this year…. And although it didn’t come off a Niña, the 96-97 winter was cold neutral ENSO
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A late November peak sounds about right. The 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 events all peaked in late November
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If this turns into an El Niño fail (A La 2017) a whole lot of pros and experts are going to look really, really stupid….CPC/NOAA, BOM, PAGASA, Paul Roundy, HM, Mike Ventrice, Jason Nicholls, World Climate Service, Accuweather, Commodity Wx Group, The Weather Channel, Eric Webb, Ben Noll, Phil Klotzbach, DT, JB, Matt Lanza, Rob Carlmark, Simon Lee…..
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So far, both Nino 3 and 1+2 are the warmest ENSO regions. Nino 3 is now +0.7C and has been warming rapidly since the end of March https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png
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So much for region 1+2 dropping. It appears Bjerknes feedback is setting up, if that’s what’s happening it’s going to sustain that warmth and continue to migrate into region 3. Studies have shown Bjerknes feedback is enhanced when it sets up over the eastern ENSO regions. See this study https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5#:~:text=El%20Niño%2DSouthern%20Oscillation%20
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The overwhelming majority of ENSO events (Ninos and Niñas) normally peak in late fall, then begin to weaken….both 2015-16 and 1997-98 peaked the last week of November then began to weaken after that. If I’m not mistaken, 1982-83 was also an end of November peak….
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Whatever you say. You’re the expert, I’ll defer to your professional, seasoned opinion since you know everything. You’re right, it’s going to become a Modoki by fall
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Yea, the ENSO regions are starting off warmer now than 1997 at this time, obvious differences are the strong -PDO, strong +AMO and the high solar this year, but we have the same MJO/WWB amplification, +IOD, east-based Nino development and -QBO as 1997 did, the 96-97 winter was cold-neutral ENSO
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East Pacific/east-based El Niño events historically shut down development in the Caribbean
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There aren’t many analogs for this summer…rapidly developing east-based El Niño, region 1+2 on fire, -QBO, -PDO, +IOD, high solar, +AMO…..not many good matches. Then the question becomes how strong does it get come this fall? As of right now, I think at least high-end strong isn’t far fetched at all
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
snowman19 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind whatsoever he will be using 57-58, 02-03, 09-10 and probably 76-77 as analogs, just like he does every year there is an El Niño. It’s mental illness -
After a very slight drop, region 1+2 has warmed back up to over +2.6C. Region 3 has begun to warm very rapidly, up to over +0.7C and climbing. The WWB in regions 3 and 1+2 doing it’s dirty work. Paul Roundy is predicting an extreme WWB next month. Uncharted territory right now https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png
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When a seasoned expert like Paul Roundy says an extreme El Nino event is coming, it’s probably time to listen…..
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Make no mistake about it a major El Niño is on the way….this isn’t the 2017 fail. Would not be surprised at all to see a high-end strong, possibly even super peak come late fall….
