snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Incredibly intelligent post from you, as always. Absolutely riveting. The brainiac of the forum. The guy who doesn’t know the difference between facebook and twitter, that says all you need to know right there lol
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I’d really like to know how a strictly El Niño thread suddenly turned into a winter thread with ridiculous clown maps 7, 8, 9 months (Jan, Feb, Mar) from now getting posted. Really? And it’s from the CANSIPS model no less, which did an absolutely horrific job last winter, continuously showing huge blocking in the heart of winter that never came close to happening but that’s besides the point. Talk about going completely and totally off topic with wishcasting fantasies
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DT pointed this out a month ago but the CDAS is notoriously biased too cool and is inaccurate
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Honestly, I think HM is right. The 1925 El Niño is the closest match to this year. It’s actually very close, I would say it’s the best match https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00398.1.xml
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Paul Roundy thinks this is going to become a super event, less than an hour ago:
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Looks like some big warming coming up in regions 1+2 and 3, where is subsurface is already incredibly warm. The WWB and DWKW already starting to do their dirty work there. I think 1+2 officially goes over +3.0C very shortly and it should start expanding into region 3. The very east-based nature of this El Niño continues
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Vapid. You must have some real serious reading comprehension problems. Facebook? Lol Who’s posting facebook? Wow. No clue. And I’ll take HM’s (Anthony Masiello) analysis any day over yours. [emoji4]
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“By the way, every event is unique. We have been on step with 97-98 in terms of weekly 3.4 numbers. But other big events like 82-83 took until Aug-Sep to really get going. There's no time constraints here to go super. If the right coupling happens, it doesn't matter when...” - HM
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HM has said he’s open to and can see it possibly getting stronger than that and hasn’t made that preliminary +1.6C - +1.8C guess his official forecast yet. I still think this thing really takes off in a big way in the next several months and eclipses +2.0C. All we can do is wait, watch and see
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Here comes El Niño…..
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Kind of like last year when the CFS was showing the La Niña totally collapsing and going warm neutral/borderline weak El Niño at one point….yea….that worked out superbly. The CFS is a wretchedly awful model.
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I have to look into how that year started, it may have had an east lean at first but no it didn’t definitely end up that way. I doubt it started as east-based as this one
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IMO, June definitely finishes at least +0.9C, possibly +1.0C…. but we’ll see
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A non met just posted on Twitter that the official weekly update for region 3.4 is indeed +1.0C. Trying to get confirmation though, I don’t like posting tweets from non mets unless it is confirmed info. If that’s correct, June will finish warmer than the POAMA initialized at in last week’s update and we will also be warmer than 1997 was at this point in time….
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Interestingly, the CDAS warmed today
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Looks like the warming is continuing….we may actually officially hit +1.0C in region 3.4 by 6/30
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+7C subsurface anomalies showing up now in regions 1+2 and 3: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp.gif
