snowman19

You got it

Very confident region 3.4 is over +2.0C on the weeklies late November and December

IMO, I think it gets stronger than that, but I do agree that it peaks in December. I think it strengthens right into December when the final peak happens

I suppose anything is possible, but if we see I peak of over +2.0C come November/December (and I’m becoming increasingly confident that we will), I can’t imagine this event not behaving like a canonical El Niño. All we can do is wait and see

An Atlantic season like this with the new Euro showing over +2C in the means? I’ll take the under…..

After the MJO event later this month the warming will take off big time. Even Eric Webb, who was skeptical, has come onboard now. The CFS is hot garbage btw, that model had a borderline weak Nino developing last year at one point

Oh yea, and I’m waiting for the big ENSO region 1+2 SST drop to an iceberg that you’ve been posting is coming since the end of March…

@gawx This looks like the real deal for later this month. If this is correct (Paul Roundy says it is) a very strong MJO event with an associated major WWB is going to take shape. If it happens, this will couple the atmosphere, cause a strong DWKW and we will see major warming in region 3.4 and pushing east into 3 and 1+2. It will also help to really get the +IOD going and constructively interfere with the El Niño. It needs to be monitored very closely

@Gawx Is there confirmation that region 3 has shot up to +1.9C?

What is your hero’s Joe Bastardi, Tony Pann, Mark Margavage and Henry Margusity saying Metsfan? [emoji1782][emoji1782]

Region 4 is neutral again, the calls by some that this is going to turn into a Modoki look to be in very huge trouble. This El Nino is more east-based than 1997 and 1982. I think once the seasonal MJO/WWB parade gets going in August/September, region 3.4 warming should really take off. The SST warmth in regions 3 and 1+2 is extremely impressive as is the subsurface there. The DWKWs keep breaking at the South American coast, which is something we aren’t used to and it’s keeping the Bjerknes feedback loop going in the eastern regions

Remember when you were convinced this year was definitely going to be a Modoki? Or how you thought last winter was going to be a Nino at one point? I’d show some humility at this point

We knew that was happening. The +3.2C was ridiculously overdone. +2.5C is definitely reasonable and within the realm I’m expecting for the November/December peak. I think the ultimate peak is +2.1C - +2.5C and it occurs late November/December

@Gawx Region 3 is blazing too….over +1.7C now

@Gawx Coral Reef has region 3.4 at +1.0C and region 1+2 at a whopping +3.2C