snowman19

Out of those years, which ones also had +IOD?

The BOM’s +3.0C is overdone, yes. So overdone that this event is not even getting to super? No way IMO. The BOM hasn’t budged from the same general numbers in months, run after run. It’s seeing something and it’s definitely not an inferior, jumping all over the place, flip flopping model like the CFS. It’s not known for having major biases one way or the other over the years, even though this year, it has been running a bit warm. I’m sticking by my prediction of a +2.2C trimonthly ONI average for NDJ. Even if we make the argument that the POAMA is too warm by over +0.5….that’s still solidly into super territory, since it’s showing that +3.0C for January. I think the other models warm back up on next month’s updates, this slight cooling was more of an over correction/windshield wiper effect. I think the entire complexion of this Nino takes off in a very big way the end of this month and October. I believe it couples and feeds back strongly and we see substantial warming, WWBs/DWKWs coming up for OND. I think the OHC peaks in November at over +2

Great illustration from Ben Noll of how this El Nino is expected to interact with the +IOD and how the forcing should develop going through winter: https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1701670076678824384?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The UKMET still projecting a super Nino: https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1701598862497218888?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Also, 2009 was a classic Modoki, start to finish, classic Central Pacific El Niño

This +IOD is already overperforming, up to almost +1.2. Each update has increased its strength and extended its duration. The new BOM update has it going over +1.7 in November and not going back to neutral until February

@raindancewx I think the real odd thing about this year has been the El Niño/-PMM combo. We’ve had -PDO/Nino combos before but I really can’t find one with this strong of a -PMM

The WPAC has very clearly been cooling notably and is still cooling. It’s undeniable. We have also gone into a significant +IOD and the models are getting stronger with it on each new run. The argument that we are still in a La Niña state and it’s killing the Nino and that all these new model runs are dead wrong about this Nino going super this close to game time is mind boggling to me

Here’s the new JMA, still showing a super trimonthly (NDJ) peak: https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1701283581107089723?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The whole west PAC warm pool is stopping the El Niño argument is pretty much over now. As was shown earlier in this thread, the west PAC has cooled notably and is continuing to cool for at least the last month and a half

While it’s obvious that the POAMA is overdone, there’s still going to be a super El Niño. Sorry mitch lol

The new POAMA run isn’t backing down on the Nino, still showing a trimonthly super ONI for NDJ…has Nov at +2.6C, Dec at +2.9C and Jan at +3.0C: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34 It’s also showing a strong +IOD now, the new run increased its strength from now through Jan, it has Nov as the peak, gets it up to +1.7, it doesn’t go back to neutral until Feb: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=IOD

I was wondering the same thing, it has a pretty accurate region 3.4 reading for September so far…actually a tick too cool since it’s over +1.6C right now. It gets the Nino to super in the NDJ time frame

Agreed. Since we have 2 1/2 more months to go until the OHC normal peaks (November), trying to say it already peaked on 9/10 is kind of ridiculous, no offense

Even the conservative UKMO has the weekly reading up to +1.7C. IMO, this one is going super and I can definitely see something like the new Euro showed

He kept using 95-96 and 10-11 as his analogs last year and wouldn’t stop insisting that it was about to get very cold and snowy week after week from November through March. It was like he was living in an alternative universe. He was God awful last winter, terrible

You’re just upset because your Hunga Tonga theory got shot to hell last night. Next time don’t act like a volcanologist lol

While region 1+2 has probably peaked and cooled to below +3.0C recently, as the models did a good job of showing, it appears there will be another round of warming coming up with another DWKW. While unlikely to exceed +3.5C again, this would fit with the models showing it staying in super status and remaining just below +3.0C through January….

@ORH_wxman Will, I would think 65-66 acted like a Niña at times due to the -PDO. It was smack dab in the middle of the record strong 50’s-70’s -PDO cycle

Only took since mid-March to finally get the drop right….

That’s where the north PAC looks really weird to me….-NAO/-AO aside, the models have a super El Niño and the Aleutian Low way west with a -EPO. Maybe it actually does happen? But to believe a +2.3C anomaly in region 3.4 in January (Euro) and a north PAC look like that right now is a bit of a stretch. If the models still show that come November, then it will get interesting and that atmospheric response will not match any of the super El Niños in recent history (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16)

The CFS is really proving itself to be garbage it is and always has been

It would be truly unprecedented and very hard to believe for us to see a La Niña pattern and no response from a super El Niño this winter. If the Euro is correct and there’s a trimonthly +2.2C ONI for NDJ, I would bet my year’s salary that there is a very strong atmospheric response. I would be completely shocked if there’s not. All the seasonal models so far show an absolutely raging STJ on roids, not La Niña like in the least

The CFS has been laughably horrible. It’s been trying to cool region 1+2 down to +1.0C literally for the last 6 months.

If the Euro is correct, this will be one of the strongest super El Niños in recorded history and December actually hits +2.5C, and yes, January at +2.3C, but either way…wow if the Euro is correct. @so_whats_happeningAs I said “one of the strongest”, not THE strongest, I’m well aware of the 15-16 ONI peak