snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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If region 3.4 really does achieve super status, the AGW talk will be off the charts, that would be 2 super El Niños within a 10 year span
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02-03 and especially 09-10 are the strongest Central Pacific (CP)/Modoki Ninos you will ever see
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By the very nature of a super Nino event you would need a lot of warmth in the eastern regions to support and sustain that kind of warmth in region 3.4. A true Modoki setup would make that impossible. I suppose if you believe in Santa Clause, the Easter Bunny and Fairy Godmothers it’s possible….
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There is no such thing as a super Modoki El Niño
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Nino 1+2 has been on fire even cooled off, it’s still record breaking warm
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Up to this point in time, Nino 3.4 is warmer than it was back in 1982 and 1997
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Want to add how rare these strong WWBs in the East Pacific are….you normally don’t see them setting up in regions 3 and 1+2 like we are now and have been. It’s a testament to how east-based/EP this Nino is so far
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The 72-73 super El Niño developed with a -PDO. Rare? Yes. Impossible? No
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Yea, I think this is going to be a big one. When Paul Roundy says this one is for real, it’s probably for real
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IMO the people who are doubting that we even have an El Niño because other attempts have failed in the past since 2000 or because the PDO is negative or because the SOI isn’t strongly negative right now or saying it can’t or won’t get strong, are going to be very wrong. I also think the writing is on the wall that this one isn’t turning into a Modoki event, in fact, I think this one ends up being a classic East Pacific/EP event
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True about 2014 with the SOI, however, back then you didn’t have an inferno in region 1+2. Also, region 3.4 is starting out even warmer now than 82 and 97 did at this point in time. IMO this one is for real. We shall see…..
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This event (so far) is definitely not behaving like the previous El Niño fails we’ve seen since 2000. IMO this one is for real and it means business. The +IOD, among other things like the WWBs/MJO waves and the dramatic East Pacific warming, tells me this one isn’t just falling apart. Yes, the PDO is “out of phase” right now with a +ENSO, but as has happened in the past, there have been PDO disconnects with both major Niño and Niña events
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The unprecedented, extreme warmth in ENSO region 1+2 right now, which is starting to encroach into region 3, is probably going to be devastating to Ecuador and Peru:
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So far, we are ahead of both 1982 and 1997
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Very early guesses at possible analogs….72-73 (-PDO, ultimate El Nino strength remains to be seen) and 06-07 (East Pacific/EP El Nino so far and also coming off a La Niña, like we are now)…..
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An El Niño would have no problem developing along with a -PDO. ENSO is independent of the PDO. Although rare, 1972-73 was a super, east-based El Niño formed while the PDO was negative. In fact, that was a -PDO/super El Niño winter. Another example, 1995-96. La Niña/+PDO winter, the PDO was very positive that winter along with a solid La Niña
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I’m sure Paul will get into more detail on twitter as this El Nino continues to progress, he’s definitely one of the best in the business. He did say back in late March that he believes this will be a classic East Pacific (EP)/east-based event. Its development so far would definitely support that
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I can easily see how this event would peak at strong. Super is probably a stretch as of right now, but I don’t think a strong peak is far fetched at all
