snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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IMO, June definitely finishes at least +0.9C, possibly +1.0C…. but we’ll see
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A non met just posted on Twitter that the official weekly update for region 3.4 is indeed +1.0C. Trying to get confirmation though, I don’t like posting tweets from non mets unless it is confirmed info. If that’s correct, June will finish warmer than the POAMA initialized at in last week’s update and we will also be warmer than 1997 was at this point in time….
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Interestingly, the CDAS warmed today
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Looks like the warming is continuing….we may actually officially hit +1.0C in region 3.4 by 6/30
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+7C subsurface anomalies showing up now in regions 1+2 and 3: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp.gif
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The subsurface below regions 1+2 and 3 is an inferno now and still warming. As you mentioned, the +7C subsurface anomalies showing up on the TAO are just staggering. Now, it looks like a good bet that TC’s are going to start forming, which promotes WWBs behind them, only serving to enhance Nino development/Bjerknes feedback even further with DWKWs. We are going to see the Eastern Pacific regions heat up even more in the very near future, that should expand west into region 3.4 as well
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While +2 and over will most likely be a torch winter overall, the chances for a KU bomb up the coast (i.e. 1983, 2016) will be greatly increased because of the raging STJ on roids that will be present. Just need a very well timed, good luck arctic cold shot. Thread the needle
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Good write up. Just my opinion, I think we see a late November/December peak and I think it peaks a little higher than you, probably in the neighborhood of +2.1C - +2.5C. The POAMA is obviously overdone, but I can definitely see it peaking above +2. And the Modoki wishcasting fantasies of the usual suspects are lol worthy
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This El Niño event is building entirely in the Eastern Pacific….something we haven’t been used to since 1980
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Looks like NOAA is expecting a strong El Niño
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Even if we go full on 97-98 you can’t rule out a real lucky well timed KU bomb with thread the needle cold/arctic. Back during that winter a bunch of the big coastal storms were 37 degrees and rain
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5 months of hearing about perfect setups and guaranteed locked and loaded major snowstorms. The boy who cried wolf lol
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But you said we were getting how many massive snowstorms this past winter from November to March? Remember all your perfect, historic, amazing, record, omg, unprecedented setups? Lol [emoji23]
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Get ready for a big jump in regions 1+2 and 3. The east-based warming continues….
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The CFS has been trying and failing miserably to weaken regions 3 and 1+2 since the end of April. The forecasts support regions 1+2 and 3 warming even more going into July
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It looks like warming is continuing in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2….theres actually a chance it goes +1.1C come 6/30….
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Yes, I agree. A good chance June ends at +1.0C. Warming 0.8C by the end of July? Extreme, yes….impossible? No
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The record Mexican heat wave makes sense with the east-based/Eastern Pacific El Niño we have. Latent and sensible heat release into the atmosphere through SST evaporation and convection from the furnace in ENSO regions 3 and 1+2. I would expect that to continue with the positive feedback loop that’s been created there
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If you thought the AGW/climate change talk went crazy after the 15-16 El Nino, just watch what happens in 2024 if this event actually does go super…2 super Ninos within 10 years…it will be completely off the charts and will almost certainly be a very HUGE campaign issue leading up to the elections next year
