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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    @Allsnow“La Niña is dead” - over a month ago from you lol another good one. Reality:
  2. snowman19
    @AllsnowKarma. It’s going to be funny when we have a raging SE ridge by the end of the 1st week of February lol It’s already starting to show up on guidance. The ‘SSW, epic cold and snow blocked January’ turned into an epic, monumental fail. What’s your other favorite saying...oh yea “CCB ownage” lol BTW, I’m still waiting for my “4-8 inch type deal” you said yesterday was going to be....I got a big inch, comical. I can’t wait to troll you lol
  3. snowman19
    Yea, phase 7 in a La Niña winter, especially as you get beyond the first week of February is a strong warm signal in the east
  4. snowman19
    It’s weird because normally, almost always really, with the big coastal snowstorms, the GFS is way too far south/suppressed and consistently shows a miss, then it finally gets a clue in the closing few days before the storm and shows a hit like the other models already had been. This is the opposite right now
  5. snowman19
    Gone to light drizzle here now, around 1 inch of snow total, still some sleet mixing in at times
  6. snowman19
    Hot off the presses....From the National Weather Service: (And this is for Rockland), only up to 2 inches of snow total from this, for NYC, even less, up to 1 inch total. This is a very, very minor snow event. Please stop trying to turn this into something it’s not. Rockland: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ069&warncounty=NYC087&firewxzone=NYZ069&local_place1=Montebello NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=41.1288&lon=-74.1181#.YA8y8aQ8IlQ Here’s NYC, 1 inch total: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ073&warncounty=NYC005&firewxzone=NYZ073&local_place1=Bronx NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=40.8489&lon=-73.8762#.YA8z_aQ8IlQ
  7. snowman19
    Maybe for New England
  8. snowman19
    Yep and the ratios aren’t going to be that good with mixing issues, the actual snow amounts are going to be less. Some of those totals on that map are sleet counted as snow
  9. snowman19
    The NAM has wanted nothing to do with it for days now. There are definitely going to be p-type issues looking at the soundings, the usual mid-level warm nose will be there and some areas will see boundary layer issues as well. Nothing really has changed since yesterday, still 1-2/1-3 inches of snow
  10. snowman19
    That’s cute. Your call of “a 4-8 inch type deal” for the metro is looking marvelous lol And this turned into 2 separate waves, the first wave did nothing for us today, which is what I said would happen. And I like how you used my rent free quote from the DM. That was good
  11. snowman19
    Yeah, surface temps. The low level surface/boundary layer temps don’t matter, there’s going to be mid-level warming issues, it’s going to turn to sleet and freezing rain....plain rain for some areas in southern parts
  12. snowman19
    Yep and when you factor in the mid-level warm nose and boundary layer issues, weak lift profiles, marginal temps, those 10:1 ratio snowmaps are seriously flawed, this is a general 1-2 spot 3 inch snowfall event before p-type issues. Weak sauce for the metro area. But like you said, consider this a win and enjoy
  13. snowman19
    @AllsnowNow it’s the 2nd week of February for the epic pattern lol Just keep moving the goal posts, eventually you’ll be right by default
  14. snowman19
    I see the hype machine is back running on all 8 cylinders for February 2nd and 3rd lol It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro area? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....over 8 days away. Groundhog Day, hit the repeat button. I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it
  15. snowman19
    It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....over 8 days away. Groundhog Day, hit the repeat button. I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it, it’s over Johnny
  16. snowman19
    In a week from now we turn the page onto February....discuss.....
  17. snowman19
    This event is weak sauce on the new model runs, weak lift, minimal QPF, poor upper level/jet dynamics, light precip and now the models have a mid-level warm nose punching all the way up to my neck of the woods, it’s going to turn to sleet. Some portions of the metro even see boundary layer issues and go to rain. This is looking more and more like a nothing burger
  18. snowman19
    People need to enjoy the 1-3 inches coming and call it a day. Very minor, puny event at best. Like I said earlier, consider it a win
  19. snowman19
    That “sneaky” feature Tuesday is one of the contributors (along with others) helping to suppress the Thursday storm OTS
  20. snowman19
    This never was anything more than a minor 1-2, 1-3 inch event. This setup screamed weak suppressed/sheared for many days now, some people chose to ignore that and wishcast it into a 4-8/3-6 inch event
  21. snowman19
    The Euro and NAM want nothing to do with Mon night - Tues....they shear it to shreds. The models that do have more, aren’t showing much better. This is probably a general 1-2 inches of snow for the metro area. At this point take it as a win.....
  22. snowman19
    The new outlook from the CPC going with a warm start to February. Also, North American snowcover is the lowest it’s ever been in over 15 years.....
  23. snowman19
    The EPS supports the op
  24. snowman19
    The new Euro gives Bermuda a snowstorm next Friday
  25. snowman19
    Yep. If the NAM idea is correct it’s not going to so much as flurry north of Cape May
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