snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The subsurface is actually approaching +7C under regions 3 and 1+2
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The biggest snowstorm of that 13 year period was the Megalopolis blizzard of February, 1983, during the super El Niño. That was it
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Maybe we are stuck in a long-term run of bad winters….the last time that happened was the 13 year period from 1979-1992. A consecutive run of epically bad winters, all in a row. Really has not happened again since then…..
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As I posted before, the new APEC and WMO multi model ensembles are showing rapid ENSO warming the next several months. This (along with the developing +IOD constructively interfering) leads me to believe we see major warming starting in July. Also, the upcoming WWBs/DWKWs look like they mean business. I think we see some strongly negative SOI numbers going through July
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I think July is the month to watch, IMO we see a big uptick then
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The developing +IOD starting to do its dirty work and suppressing IO/Maritime Continent convection. The models very badly overestimated both the easterly wind burst/ENSO cooling and the MJO marching through the IO and Maritime Continent phases
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As suspected, the extent and duration of the cooling period was way overdone by the models last week and we are warming already…
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So east-based forcing and near dateline forcing. Interesting
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Yea, we are going to have to see how July goes, I think that month will be very telling. Just my opinion right now, I can see this thing peaking in November/December somewhere between +2.0C - +2.4C. Again, dependent on what July does, but I think we do see a very big uptick that month
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The cooling has slowed and the upcoming WWB looks like it means business, looks more and more impressive. We may see a huge spike in the warming by late month
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While I doubt a ‘97 or ‘15 peak as of right now, IMO I don’t think a peak of +2.0C - +2.4C come November/December is far fetched at all. Will a “low-end” super peak matter overall this winter and make a big difference as opposed to it peaking higher? I dunno
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After the current brief, temporary period of cooling with the easterlies in 3.4, here comes next round of warming/WWB/DKW/-SOI
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@Gawx
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El Niño already affecting the long wave global pattern:
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We can keep using the persistence argument/forecast but eventually that doesn’t work anymore. Patterns are bound to change, they can’t stay the same forever, especially after almost 10 years
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Right, however, now that we have this strong El Niño event developing, coupled with a very healthy +IOD, my thinking is that this may be enough to finally break the IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. We will have to wait and see
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Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to produce strong subsidence over the IO and the Maritime Continent. That should effectively kill the “Niña-like” MJO wave phases
