snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The HREF is probably the closest to reality. Rain to snow setups generally underperform in our area. Also, a very marginal airmass and those 10:1 ratio maps are going to be grossly overdone
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The GFS is likely overdone for both events. That said I’m still confident in NYC seeing “something” Wednesday
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Theme of this winter. NWS Upton has zero snow south of Orange County for tomorrow/Mon: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter
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I’m trying to be optimistic lol I’ll get accused of trolling if I say what I really think lol
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Yes. It was the 1st day of astronomical spring
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The 6z and 12z GFS are clear outliers. No other models are showing what they did. Its suppressed/cold bias was very clearly at work
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I still think NYC ends up getting measurable snow
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Besides the boundary layer being marginal, the Euro is torching the midlevels very very quickly on Wednesday on this run, way faster than any of its previous runs
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^This! Especially with an Aleutian ridge/strong RNA setup. The models have been doing this for the last 3 months only to correct as we get closer. Same story with the SE ridge
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That backend Monday on the Euro in Rockland and Westchester probably isn’t even real. It is showing sleet anyway as depicted. Don’t go by the 10:1 snow maps, they count sleet as snow
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The Euro also cut back the front-end snow for Wednesday. Most likely….probably still enough for something measurable in NYC to not break the record, it looks minuscule but may be enough
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Don’t worry, it’s the operational GFS. You can rest assured nothing even close to that will verify
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The hyped “cold” period for the end of this month has turned into just a week (1/24-1/31) of near normal temperatures
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Wednesday is not going to turn into a snowstorm for the area. While I believe NYC sees enough measurable snow to not break the 1/29/73 record, that one is going over to rain after whatever brief front-end there is
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Model bias of being too weak with the SE ridge in the long range, then it corrects much stronger as we get closer in time. Same issue that’s been going on for years with the models underestimating the SE ridge/WAR in the extended only to correct stronger
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In terms of? I’m seeing an Aleutian ridge, -PNA and a very positive NAO
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The 12z models so far are cutting back the front end snow for Wednesday in the metro area and have gotten warmer. The ICON has no front end south of Orange County and the CMC and GFS cut back notably with a bigger midlevel warm push and the primary low going to Lake Erie or Ohio (CMC). Lets see what the Ukie and Euro do
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The real big jump in daylight comes the first week of February. 2/5 - 5/5 is considered Solar or Celtic Spring. It’s the time of the year when we gain daylight the fastest. https://www.boston.com/weather/local-news/2022/02/05/solar-spring-is-here-and-that-means-we-are-gaining-more-daylight-in-an-increasingly-big-way/
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The NAM has done a full cave to what the RGEM has had run after run for days now, for tomorrow. That model is wretched. NWS should just shut it down, useless
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Here’s a good visual of why the pattern sucks for east coast snowstorms from now through the start of February. This is why you need a -NAO block and a 50/50 low or the lows just continue to run and cut without any secondary redevelopment
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Wednesday is pretty much an all rain event. I-84 north may be a different story. The new Euro takes the low to Buffalo, no 50/50 low, no -NAO, trough orientation sucks, nothing to lock confluence in, etc.
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I think it’s less than an inch total, but enough to be considered “measurable”. The overwhelming majority of that event will be rain. There is no evidence to support a meaningful snowfall in NYC Wednesday/Thursday, in fact, just the opposite
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I think we end up #2 on the list. While I think it’s going to be minimal, there’s probably going to be some measurable front end snow in NYC on Wednesday, keeping 1973 in 1st place
