snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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NAM = Trash
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View anything the NAM shows with extreme skepticism. It did an absolutely horrendous job Monday, the HRRR and RGEM did the best
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The new HRRR basically starts it as rain from Rockland/Bergen/Westchester south
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I’m sure they have their reasons. No models are showing Rockland getting 2-3 inches, not one. The Euro, which is the snowy outlier is the only one showing anything close to that if you use 10:1 ratios, which tomorrow won’t be, the Kuchera is much less. Everything else (12K/3K NAM, RGEM, GFS, HRDPS, CMC, HRRR, ICON, UKMET, FV3, HREF) don’t show that kind of accumulation
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NAM caved to the RGEM
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The NAM sucks. It completely busted yesterday. The 3K NAM barely has anything at all in Rockland, nothing south of there
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The Euro must be running late
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The 3K NAM has less than an inch for Rockland, nothing south of there. Ditto for the Ukie. This one is probably DOA. We may start as rain tomorrow.
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I doubt we score in the 2/1-2/7 time frame. No -NAO or 50/50 low. I think whatever happens is an inland runner. This winter is on life support
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ICON nada, CMC nada, GFS less than one inch even up here. This winter is a dumpster fire shit show. NYC probably breaks the all time record now
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The RGEM has no front end at all now. Even up in Rockland County. It has it starting as rain. You can’t make this winter up
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Yea, I was looking at the composites last night. If the vortex moves over AK mid-late February, the EPO floodgates open wide and it’s game over winter 22-23
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It might propagate out into the Pacific in early March? I don’t know, I’m starting to think March isn’t going to be all that good. If the SPV restrengthens mid-late February, I think it’s over
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Agree with you. If we don’t score in the first week of February, we are probably done until March, maybe. Not having the SSW may have screwed March. I think the pattern goes to hell after 2/7
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I’m simply stating what has been going on the last 3 months
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Euro with the cut back for Wednesday. It just doesn’t want to snow here this winter
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Let’s see what it looks like at 0z tomorrow
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Ukie…total whiff https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023012400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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The GFS is still caving it’s almost as bad as the NAM. This is what it’s showing now and the cave still isn’t done: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023012400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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And the inevitable back off from the GFS and ICON at 18z, seems to be another win for the RGEM/CMC suite incoming
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Yep, it looks like brief, non accumulating snow/sleet then right over to rain
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This has I-84 north event written all over it
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36 and still light white rain in Sloatsburg. Hasn’t even accumulated on grassy surfaces or cars. Should be ending soon
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Yep, had it not been for that, March would have not been anything at all like it was
