snowman19

All I know is, we have been hearing about great patterns that are going to produce a lot of snow and cold here for 3 months now. The hype started in mid-November, some even hyping “historic” patterns, here we sit less than 8 days away from the beginning of February with absolutely nothing whatsoever to show for it. At some point this winter has to put up or shut up. We have been kicking the can down the road and moving the goal posts forward in time for too long now. To expect some miracle pattern to just suddenly develop in February is unrealistic IMO. The clock is ticking, in 8 days, just 1 month left of met winter

It’s always cold, snowy and a great pattern at 240+ hours. Been a reoccurring theme since the middle of November

Yep an honestly pathetic performance from all 3 models. Win for the RGEM/CMC

So was the GFS

The NAM and Euro were a fail for today. Overdone

36 in Sloatsburg, white rain

ICON cut back too. I’d be surprised if the Euro doesn’t next

The Ukie looks like the RGEM/CMC now and the GFS cut back

Not saying they’re right but the RGEM and CMC have been consistent for days now that it’s a non event. They haven’t budged. Pretty crazy differences for this close to the event

The differences between the NAM and RGEM for Wednesday are laughable

Sleet and graupel in Sloatsburg

I was 3 years old for that one lol

Inverts?

The HRRR has the changeover, it’s just not as enthused as the RAP https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012312&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Rapid midlevel cooling north and west of the city right now

The Euro has that same storm too but it’s all rain even into Canada

Always 240+ hours away the winter of digital snow lol [emoji23]

The RGEM/CMC suite want absolutely nothing at all to do with Wednesday, they have a total non event run after run. Either it’s going to score a coupe or it’s going down in flames

Cherish whatever we get on Wednesday. The Euro has nothing but rainstorms the rest of this month into the beginning of February

If the CMC and RGEM are correct and the precip holds off until the midlevels start torching, this will be a brief non accumulating snow/sleet onset then very quickly over to all rain. The way this winter has gone, I don’t think any of us would be surprised if that’s actually the outcome

The differences between the GFS and CMC are laughable for a little over 2 days out. CMC has a non event and the GFS has a plowable snow from Westchester/Rockland/Bergen on north. One is going to be dead wrong

If the SPV restrengthens in mid-late February my cold/possibly snowy March idea is going to go down in flames

Also, want to add, this is where the +NAO and lack of a 50/50 low is killing us. If there was a -NAO block, even a transient thumb ridge to lock a 50/50 in and create confluence to hold the high to the north, this probably would have been an area wide WSW event, even with this marginal airmass in place. An arctic high obviously would had been ideal but if there was a -NAO and 50/50, this event would have been way different

I agree. To me this is an I-84 north WWA event, south of there? Not so much. The high is moving away, very marginal boundary layer, low cutting into Lake Erie, during the day, this isn’t screaming big front end dump south of I-84

The globals should *hopefully* come to a better consensus at 0z tonight