snowman19

The RGEM was hinting at a similar scenario. This one may be DOA. And yea, March, 2001 vibes big time with this one…..

The Euro and EPS did God awful the last 2 weeks. Terrible. The RGEM/CMC and GFS just schooled it again with this storm, full cave. The NAM is equally as horrific. Yet another “great pattern”, “unbelievable potential”, “buckle up, historic” falls by the way side. 5 months in a row of “potential” with zippo, nada to show for it. This is a 1-2 inch event up here in Rockland, maybe and nothing for NYC, LI. Just like this past weekend. Non event

The UKMET did cutback some. Those 10:1 snow maps people insist on continuing to use are going to be laughably inaccurate and so overdone it’s not going to be funny. Ratios are going to be 5:1, maybe 7:1 if you’re lucky. I’m riding the RGEM/CMC/GFS like Sea Biscuit. The NAM (12k, 3k) is going to cutback 85% of what it just showed by tomorrow morning, that run was Lmfaoooo worthy, pure comedy. I think the Euro caves in the next couple of runs with that bogus juiced up inverted trough it was showing, which IMO isn’t happening. As far as the ICON, it already cutback from what it was showing last night and it’s resolution isn’t the best. This storm hasn’t changed since Friday. Like I said before and these latest runs haven’t changed my mind. This is an I-84 north major snowstorm with minimal accumulations south of there

The Euro is going to be dead wrong IMO. That inverted trough feature is BS

Those Storm Vista 10:1 ratio snow maps are so severely overdone it’s not even funny. They are extremely and I mean extremely inaccurate. The Kuchera snow map on piviotal weather doesn’t look anything close to that, like not even in the ballpark. Ratios are going to be like 5:1

It’s actually a revolutionary idea called “changing my mind”. After the Euro’s wretched performance this winter, I’d say it’s equally as horrible. You change with the times my man. Things change…. Happy Daylight Savings Time [emoji2]

This storm hasn’t changed since Friday IMO, still an I-84 north special. Little accumulation south of there, really a non event. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031206&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs

Those 10:1 ratio maps are severely overdone

Throw it in the trash. Not even worth looking at that model at 84 hours, it’s even dreadful at 36 hours

34F rain/snow mix, it just started mixing with wet snow the last 15 minutes here in Sloatsburg. We will be lucky to see a coating/dusting here

The NAM sucks. This storm has I-84 north special written all over it. I think there’s going to be little accumulation south of 84. Mostly a rain event in the NYC metro

This is probably a 24+ storm inland. Question is how far inland?

The northern branch keeps dropping in earlier with every run, that keeps up and it will definitely get tugged west, which I think happens. I think it ultimately runs inland

This is going to be an inland snowstorm. NYC/coast/LI are not going to see much at all IMO. Rockland/Westchester/Bergen/Passaic might not either. I can see this easily becoming an I-84 north special

All the 0z runs all trended worse for tonight/tomorrow morning. The WWA is going to be way overdone. 4-6 inches is not happening. This is an inch or 2 at best NW of NYC, 2 being the max

This is going to be 1-2 feet + of snow inland. Question is how far inland? Rockland/Bergen/Westchester/Passaic inland (option 1)? Or Sussex/Orange/Putnam/Ulster/I-84 north inland (Option 2)? My guess is the west trend is real and it’s option #2. I don’t think NYC, coast and LI get much out of it (either option) and if a west trend continues neither will Westchester/Rockland/Bergen/Passaic

Before my time, but I looked up the stats, the period from 1979-1993 was the absolute worst for snowfall here. The worst 14 year consecutive period in the last 45 years. People on this board would have completely lost their minds back then

The 6z runs are starting to show a New England special. Capture happens too late for us and the storm doesn’t really wrap up and crank until it’s at New England’s latitude

Same result….still 1-2 area wide: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030818&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Not even worth arguing about an operational run this far away. It is not going to play out anything like that in reality. Also of note the Euro is the only model showing this

It still looks like a 1-2 inch event, especially north and west of the city

My guess is an inch or 2 at best north and west of NYC. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 inch amounts but that would be the ceiling IMO. Marginal setup. Take the under

Friday night/Saturday looks like a 1-2 inch maybe 3 inch (in spots) event especially north and west of NYC IMO. The city itself might not see much at all. Next week might possibly be more impressive?

Agree. You aren’t getting 10:1 ratios during those waves. The Kuchera is actually closer to reality

That Euro run was very unimpressive. Using the Kuchera, it has 1-2 inches of snow, total, in the metro area over the next 10 days. Not so much as a peep from Bernie Rayno, which is very telling. When he doesn’t think there’s a legit snow threat for the east coast he doesn’t post anything. If he thought this weekend and next week was a legit threat he’d be all over it right now