snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I’d have to agree. Don’t think it’s much, probably less than an inch before going to rain. It would take the curse of Medusa for NYC to make it to 2/1 with zero snow from 11/1 - 2/1
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As predictable as the rising sun, the ensembles have completely dropped the phantom -NAO they were showing the tail end of the month into early February. Dropped like a bad habit. Another model fantasy that disappeared
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Probably less than that. Those 10:1 ratio maps are not going to be accurate for that event. Ratios are going to be lower
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The NAM has been out to lunch all winter long. Really not even worth looking at anymore. The RGEM has been schooling it
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Not really [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
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I don’t think it changes back to snow. This winter can’t be over, it never even started. Been nothing but a parade of cutters, inland runners and warmth since mid-November. The only semblance of winter was the 4 day arctic cold snap Christmas week
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It’s definitely going to all rain, even up where I am. Question is can you actually get something measurable on the lead front end? I guess it’s better than nothing since NYC has zero snow up to now, before the pattern goes completely to hell again the first week of February
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The NAM is in a world all to its own for Sun/Mon
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif
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March will be here before you can say torch
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Yea lol that’s one way of putting it…
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Did you see the new Euro weeklies? Oooof
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The op Euro is not what it used to be. The fact that the GFS isn’t suppressed and is showing an inland runner at this range is not good. Also, the JMA which is always the far eastern outlier is showing an inland runner for the Wed/Thurs event. Both huge red flags
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The crazy part is, global temps have not dropped despite a 3rd year moderate La Niña, in fact, they have gone up. In our “old” climate, Nina’s would drop the global temps, not anymore. AGW appears to be increasing
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The op Euro has been showing the pipe dream storms and flip flopping like a fish out of water. Whatever they did to that model with the upgrade, it is nothing like it used to be. Its “King” title is no more
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37 and raining in Sloatsburg. Some winters find every way possible to snow, this one has found every way possible not to snow. Total non winter south of Orange County and even Orange has been hurting real bad
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The fact that it made it to this point without measurable snow is a very ominous sign for the rest of winter, if you look at history
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Coming from the guy who quotes JB [emoji23][emoji23]
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Just yesterday you said you think NYC is going to get 0 snow for the entire winter
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He’s deep in denial
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You’re in denial it’s ok. Take a few deep breaths. It’ll be ok
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That is fact. That’s what the EPS shows, it’s not opinion
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It was never a good snow pattern for the NYC metro area despite what some people were telling you. The hypesters fooled you again. They play you like a $3 dollar horn. And you fall for it everytime .
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EPS has sped up the change to canonical La Niña (Aleutian ridge/-PNA/SE ridge). This is 1/31. Not surprising given the MJO is already in the Indian Ocean
