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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    It looks like they want to pop a big Aleutian ridge at the end of this month. Whether or not that actually happens is the big question since we are talking almost 4 weeks away....
  2. snowman19
    The op Euro has been garbage so far this winter, not only too amped, but has been flip flopping like crazy
  3. snowman19
    Who knows, maybe this time, at long last, after over 3 winters of the models showing it in the long-range and being dead wrong, there’s really a -EPO period, until it actually happens though, it’s the boy who cried wolf. I have no problem believing the +PNA spike however I think that happens. I guess we’ll see about this big -EPO
  4. snowman19
    Eric hyping another long-range -EPO....he did this back in November, hyped a huge -EPO period coming for December which of course never actually verified....none of the advertised long-range -EPO periods on the models have verified for years now. The last 3 winters in a row have had the models popping phantom negative EPO’s in the long-range, only to have them disappear and never verify. Fail after fail. I’ll believe it when it actually happens in real time, not fantasy on a long-range model. People continue to be fooled by the same mirage over and over. Can I see a +PNA period? Sure. +PNA is believable, but -EPO? I have very, very serious doubts
  5. snowman19
    I’ll believe the -EPO when we actually see it happen in real time. How many times now over the last few winters...even as recently as the big -EPO period that was advertised in the long range back in November has it been a total fail? The models have been popping phantom -EPO’s in the long range for years now only to have them disappear and never verify. I can see a +PNA, sure, but -EPO? Color me real skeptical
  6. snowman19
    Problem is the SSWE is dumping all the vodka cold into the other side of the pole, into Eurasia
  7. snowman19
    For starters, the arctic cold went to our side of the pole, among other key differences. Read up: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/10303/2019/
  8. snowman19
    The March, 2018 SSW was not “the same thing” not even close. It was a completely different event and evolution than this one
  9. snowman19
    Yep this SSWE is benefitting Eurasia. This is why you don’t assume that every SSW turns the eastern seaboard into an arctic tundra. All the cold is dumping into the other side of the pole. Of course it can still snow with January climo, but the NAO and PNA are definitely going to have to cooperate as will storm tracks. Air masses are going to be marginal. It seems the EPO is going to be uncooperative for the foreseeable future
  10. snowman19
    My area is staying above freezing at the surface tonight. But you’re right, you are going to have to dynamically cool the column with strong UVV’s/lift and heavy precip rates to turn it back over to all snow. The models aren’t very impressive with QPF for the duration right now though
  11. snowman19
    This is why those 10:1 ratio snow maps are BS. If there’s sleet, there’s a mid-level warm nose, those 10:1 maps count sleet as snow. That’s why I use the positive snow depth maps in these very marginal situations. The ratios are more like 5:1 tonight given the mid-level warming situation and the garbage boundary layer....those more accurate snow depth maps for the HRRR and NAM give my area less than an inch of snow for the duration
  12. snowman19
    Sleet here now....obviously a mid-level warm nose has worked in
  13. snowman19
    I’m 34, very light drizzle in Sloatsburg. The new NAM and HRRR are very unimpressive for snow with the next round here in Rockland
  14. snowman19
    The new HRRR, NAM (12K, 3K) are nothing burgers south of Orange and Putnam counties. Rockland and Westchester may not see more than an inch out of this and it looks like it’s going to turn to rain for several hours
  15. snowman19
    Yep also weak and disjointed. It has it flipping between rain and snow here in Rockland and what snow falls is light. This is trending into pretty much a nothing burger
  16. snowman19
    I’m sorry. 84. Totally misspoke. 84
  17. snowman19
    This is going to be an ugly NAM run for snow it would appear, still running
  18. snowman19
    Areas north of I-87 should do ok. South of 87, Rockland, Westchester, Bergen.....this is probably 1-2 inches of very wet snow at best, which is a gift given the putrid airmass, and I think those areas may fight rain at times. Bad boundary layer, my highs up here go into the upper 30’s tomorrow. As far as ratios, those 10:1 ratio maps are going to be way off. It’s probably more like 5:1 ratios tomorrow south of 87 Edit: I meant I-84. My apologies
  19. snowman19
    Not trolling. That 10:1 ratio map is severely overdone and wrong. It incorrectly counts sleet as snow. You aren’t getting 10:1 ratios, it’s going to be way lower than that and the boundary layer is really horrible. There is also a mid-level warm punch, the NAM has it going to all rain even up here
  20. snowman19
    That is map is way overdone. This is the more realistic one: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2021010118&fh=60
  21. snowman19
    36 here in Sloatsburg, down a degree from 37 an hour ago. This should be about as low as we get for this one. This mid-level warmth has already punched in, not expecting much more than rain from this one, maybe a few sleet pellets at the start, but this is going to be mainly rain for us
  22. snowman19
    Agree. This is an 84 and north event. I’d honestly want to be north of 84 for this one
  23. snowman19
    Problem is the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, first off, those ratios are not happening, they will be much lower, second, they count sleet as snow. The boundary layer is going to suck. Highs are approaching 40 degrees that day even up here in Rockland County
  24. snowman19
    Not saying it doesn’t look good for storms, if you want cold, it’s ugly, real ugly. @MJO812 for the 100th time, ugly for getting arctic cold
  25. snowman19
    That is a very ugly PAC. EPO floodgates wide open
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