snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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If the weeklies and GEFS ext are correct and we get a retrograded west based -NAO block setup come 3/12 on…what good does it feasibly do for us (snow/cold wise) at that point in time given our latitude, sun angle, climo and length of day?
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The EURO strengthened the -PNA big time going into early March at 12z. It has snow into the higher elevations of Baja. This is nuts, the 534 line is into Mexico https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022012&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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@donsutherland1 Turns out MJO phase 8 isn’t as cold on the composites in March as it is in Dec, Jan, Feb…so even if it gets there, it’s not going to live up to the hype
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It’s probably onto March for wintry hopes. The 2/23-2/28 period looks like it’s trending badly at this juncture
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The EURO has a weak sauce nothing burger for Saturday. Less than an inch for the city and that’s using the Kuchera, it looks throughly unimpressive
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Yep, it’s about to have a huge cutter on 2/28, just looking at 500mb, it’s probably going to show rain to Montreal
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Sleet at best. The upper levels are torched. We’re not getting snow out of that one
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If you want something in March, you have a 15 day window (3/1-3/15). Anything after that point would have to be a freak, anomalous event. Climo, sun angle and length of day are all against you by 3/15 and it only gets worse from there
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Looks like very strong -PNA, +EPO, +AO. The only thing it’s got going for it is the -NAO. It’s going to be March, where’s the arctic air? March, 2018 had -EPO and cross-polar flow delivering arctic air, that’s why it was such an epic month. We don’t have that this time
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The 2/23-2/28 time frame trended poorly for snow on the new model runs. Not really surprising at all. Onto March I guess
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Cold bias as in the GFS is too far south. It will end up correcting north just like it did for the middle of this upcoming week. It had snow in DC and Baltimore in earlier runs. It has done this I don’t know how many times already this winter
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I don’t know about all 3 being rain in SNE, south of there? Absolutely. IMO, all 3 are going to turn into New England frozen events with primarily all rain south of there. The GFS cold bias is ridiculous
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The CFS isn’t alone. All 3 ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) have a very strong -PNA and massive SE ridge hook up with the -NAO by day 11 and it’s lights out. I think this one may be over
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What’s your snow total since November? …..SCORE!!
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Always a plus when the 18z op GFS shows consistently for a fantasy event more than a week out
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Thank you Dr. Hannibal Lecter. Great psychiatric analysis!
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March, 2018 is quite possibly one of the worst “analogs” for this upcoming March ever, it ranks right up there in the top 5 dumbest wishcasts ever, like as bad as the fools who were using 1995-96 and 2010-11 back in November for this winter. The people who were using 1957-58, 2002-03, and 2009-10 as “analogs” for the 2015-16 super El Niño, saying it was “west-based” were equally as dumb so it’s a really hard choice for the biggest buffoon award
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41 with sleet/graupel from passing stratocumulus with the sun out in Sloatsburg
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@donsutherland1 This guy is a total crackpot. -5F DC-BOS from 3/1 - 4/15 along with 20+ inches of snow in NYC
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Right!! Maybe if I post snow and cold fantasies and wishcasts it will really happen. That would have definitely made this winter much better. Once upon a time…..
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If this hyped -NAO takes until 3/13 to develop how much good are you expecting out of it?
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Still no signs of -NAM (-AO) response on the models into March. Still +NAM. You’re right, you usually don’t see this NAO/AO disconnect
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So this may not have an effect until the 2nd or 3rd week of March “week of 3/6 or 3/13” Tick toc, tick toc…..
