snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The op Euro has been showing the pipe dream storms and flip flopping like a fish out of water. Whatever they did to that model with the upgrade, it is nothing like it used to be. Its “King” title is no more
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37 and raining in Sloatsburg. Some winters find every way possible to snow, this one has found every way possible not to snow. Total non winter south of Orange County and even Orange has been hurting real bad
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The fact that it made it to this point without measurable snow is a very ominous sign for the rest of winter, if you look at history
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Coming from the guy who quotes JB [emoji23][emoji23]
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Just yesterday you said you think NYC is going to get 0 snow for the entire winter
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He’s deep in denial
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You’re in denial it’s ok. Take a few deep breaths. It’ll be ok
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That is fact. That’s what the EPS shows, it’s not opinion
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It was never a good snow pattern for the NYC metro area despite what some people were telling you. The hypesters fooled you again. They play you like a $3 dollar horn. And you fall for it everytime .
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EPS has sped up the change to canonical La Niña (Aleutian ridge/-PNA/SE ridge). This is 1/31. Not surprising given the MJO is already in the Indian Ocean
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Don’t know if you saw this or not….HM on the SSWE prospects
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The Euro went west/warmer for both events. Not a surprise. The 12z EPS didn’t like either one of them for our area
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Never, the latest in history was 1/29/73
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Yea, Sun/Mon doesn’t look good for anyone south of Orange County. The UKMET has gotten progressively more unfavorable since 0Z last night. Here’s the ICON zoomed into Rockland, goes from less than an inch in western Rockland to nothing in the eastern part of the county https://weather.us/model-charts/german/rockland/snow-depth-in/20230126-1200z.html
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When do you think NYC sees its first inch of snow this winter?
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Just saw that lol Eric says he thinks it’s unlikely at the moment. I think the whole SSWE having a big effect (i.e. 2018) or a major SSW happening is unlikely. HM would be all over it right now like white on rice if it had a good chance of happening just like he was back in February, 2018. He is totally unimpressed by it right now
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If HM isn’t interested in this possible SSW, then it’s probably nothing to get excited about. He really knows his stuff with the stratosphere, in fact, back in February, 2018, he was one of the 1st mets to really sound the alarms that the SSW and that the blocking period that was going to follow in March was going to be historic. A lot of mets were laughing it off and saying too little too late and that it was going to be useless in alternating the pattern. We all know how that turned out
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Didn’t even consider this, but a SSWE could possibly work to re-enforce the canonical La Niña pattern, once the MJO starts constructively interfering with the Niña standing wave late this month and February, a SSW may actually cool the tropical tropopause and intensify the convection and the forcing. Maybe rooting for a SSW right now is not such a good thing right now…..
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Based on the last 3 months, until proven otherwise, for the rest of this winter, IMO: 1) the SE ridge/WAR is going to trend stronger as we get closer, 2) Unless a true -NAO block and 50/50 low actually show up in real time, not just fantasy on a long/medium range op or ensemble run, the storm is going to run or cut 3) If there’s a -PNA with a trough dumped out west, same story 4) Don’t believe +PNA’s until they actually happen, not just model fantasy
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You want the GFS clipping Cape Cod and the eastern twin forks at this range because you know it’s going to inevitably move west as you get close to the event
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The GFS being where it is for Wed/Thurs is a bad sign IMO. You want to see it suppressed and OTS and a miss at this range. It almost always corrects further west as you draw closer to the event. If there’s a further west correction from where it is now, that’s not good
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The PAC starts to go to hell quicker on the GEFS this run
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Which site are you using? This one isn’t showing anything big in the metro area https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/new-york/snow-depth-in/20230125-0000z.html
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HM isn’t impressed. Guess we’ll see
