snowman19

At this point, it’s a given that there’s going to be a significant El Niño. What you are showing tells me that the chances of this becoming a Modoki or even a basin-wide event are getting slimmer and slimmer. I’m wondering if Region 4 even reaches El Niño status now, it may not. This is just lending more support that this stays an exclusively east-based/Eastern Pacific El Nino event

This is highly anomalous for June

I would recommend you give your gut another month

https://www.space.com/nasa-spots-sign-of-el-nino-from-space-2023?utm_content=space.com&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=socialflow

So it was off by 0.6….

If nothing else, the atmosphere is definitely primed for El Niño

Up until this year, the POAMA did not have a warm bias unlike some other models

Incorrect. The Australian model does not have a warm bias

This:

Agreed. Besides the tanked SOI, look at the tweets I just posted….there’s +6C subsurface anomalies barely below the surface in regions 1+2 and 3. Not really sure where people are getting that this event is an east-based El Niño fail….the 20C isotherm is just below the surface in those regions and the warmest SSTs in the tropical Pacific are currently in ENSO regions 1+2 and 3. How some people think that’s an east-based Nino fail is beyond my comprehension. The MJO stalled in phase 7 is going to produce WWBs across the tropical PAC soon

There it is! As predictable as the rising sun. El Niño coming and the 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 analogs come flying from him. 76-77 will be next. Without fail. Hit the repeat button. Groundhog Day

I have to look up the article on the specifics of exactly how long the lag takes. It’s an old article. I know in winter, there is a lag on the atmospheric response from when there is a major SOI drop to when its effects are felt in sensible weather patterns. The SOI drops and the lagged troughing in the east (that JB always loves to use) only applies when an El Nino is in place. His followers were trying to use that this past winter every time the SOI dropped substantially and it didn’t work out because of the La Niña that we had

Yes, I believe there is a lag effect with the SOI