snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Of course he is. I knew he was going to say that back in April. Broken record. Does anyone actually take him seriously anymore? He’s the equivalent of the National Enquirer now. Total joke. If he had any integrity left he’d retire
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@GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @raindancewx @bluewave @griteater Now THIS is very interesting:
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The subsurface is actually approaching +7C under regions 3 and 1+2
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The biggest snowstorm of that 13 year period was the Megalopolis blizzard of February, 1983, during the super El Niño. That was it
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Maybe we are stuck in a long-term run of bad winters….the last time that happened was the 13 year period from 1979-1992. A consecutive run of epically bad winters, all in a row. Really has not happened again since then…..
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As I posted before, the new APEC and WMO multi model ensembles are showing rapid ENSO warming the next several months. This (along with the developing +IOD constructively interfering) leads me to believe we see major warming starting in July. Also, the upcoming WWBs/DWKWs look like they mean business. I think we see some strongly negative SOI numbers going through July
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I think July is the month to watch, IMO we see a big uptick then
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The developing +IOD starting to do its dirty work and suppressing IO/Maritime Continent convection. The models very badly overestimated both the easterly wind burst/ENSO cooling and the MJO marching through the IO and Maritime Continent phases
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As suspected, the extent and duration of the cooling period was way overdone by the models last week and we are warming already…
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So east-based forcing and near dateline forcing. Interesting
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Yea, we are going to have to see how July goes, I think that month will be very telling. Just my opinion right now, I can see this thing peaking in November/December somewhere between +2.0C - +2.4C. Again, dependent on what July does, but I think we do see a very big uptick that month
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The cooling has slowed and the upcoming WWB looks like it means business, looks more and more impressive. We may see a huge spike in the warming by late month
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While I doubt a ‘97 or ‘15 peak as of right now, IMO I don’t think a peak of +2.0C - +2.4C come November/December is far fetched at all. Will a “low-end” super peak matter overall this winter and make a big difference as opposed to it peaking higher? I dunno
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After the current brief, temporary period of cooling with the easterlies in 3.4, here comes next round of warming/WWB/DKW/-SOI
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@Gawx
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El Niño already affecting the long wave global pattern:
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We can keep using the persistence argument/forecast but eventually that doesn’t work anymore. Patterns are bound to change, they can’t stay the same forever, especially after almost 10 years
