snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Since November, how many of these have actually worked out to give the metro area snow?
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Don’t worry, I have a feeling that backside CCB band is going to end up in New England. Usually those types of setups favor New England
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Also, it looks like the idea of a February SSW is off the table now, that would have possibly….maybe, thrown a monkey wrench into a canonical Niña February but there isn’t good support for a SSW anymore
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Yes. The end of month jet retraction is real. You can see what the tropical convective forcing wants to do come early February. If it goes to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent as projected, it’s climo canonical La Niña…Aleutian ridge, RNA/SE ridge and lights out .
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01-02 was caused by a massive, record breaking high solar flux from September to April. The incoming UV was off the charts. It shrunk and contracted the SPV and warmed the mid-latitudes which caused non stop zonal and semi-zonal flow the entire winter. The westerlies were screaming
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It looks like the 6z EPS brings some snow to you guys at the end. Doesn’t look as robust as last night though. South of NE, not so much
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The models have backed off the extent of the cold 1/21 on. Canada is going to be completely full of Pacific Martine air and it is going to take quite awhile to build arctic cold back up again without cross polar flow. It looks like NYC is going to make it to 1/20 without its 1st inch of snow. That has only happened a total of 15 times in the entire weather record keeping history of the city
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It’s wild. Either he’s trolling to get likes, retweets and follows from weenies who don’t know any better or he’s actually delusional and has some serious problems within the old coconut
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He got ripped to shreds on Twitter for that lol some of the comments are hilarious [emoji23]
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This is just crazy, tonight has fizzled into zippo. I figured NYC would at least get its 1st dusting/coating tonight. The new HRRR doesn’t have so much as a snow shower now. Its found every way possible not to snow for the last 3 months https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023010900&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Do you think February somehow avoids going climo canonical La Niña? This Niña is still looking real healthy and well coupled. Region 3.4 just dropped to -1.1C, the SOI is still very strongly positive and the trade winds are still very strong https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png
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I don’t think anyone is surprised tonight trended into nothing. It has been finding ways not to snow here for months. Since November, every potential event has turned into nada
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If there is no -NAO in February it will roast. That would be the only thing to stop an all out torch and tame the SE ridge
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Then of course the jet retracts, the ridge retros to the Aleutians and a -PNA/RNA and SE ridge develop and we go canonical Niña for February lol
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Here’s a very good example. Watch the jet retraction, the ridge retrograde and the -PNA/SE ridge develop come the beginning of February
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To add on to this, the La Niña is actually not rapidly falling apart at all. Nino region 3.4 actually dropped again the last few days to -1.1C (moderate), the trade winds are still abnormally strong and the SOI is very high, so it is still really well coupled https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png
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The jet is normally retracted in La Nina’s. The extension we have now is a Nino look but that’s ending around 1/21. This, along with the tropical forcing projections leads me to believe we are going canonical Niña climo for February
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You can already see it starting around 1/21….the extended Pac jet finally retracts and goes into a +PNA at first, then it’s going to retro to the Aleutians and morph into an Aleutian ridge/RNA pattern and the SE ridge pops at the beginning of February and we go classic La Niña, forcing goes to the IO and Maritime Continent, per Niña climo. Seeing no signs of anything causing a major disruption to that system .
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Good luck with that lol unless something stops it, we’re going to go canonical Niña in February. Stop listening to JB he’s been wrong all winter .
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Something has to completely throw a monkey wrench into February or I think that month torches. If you look at the tropical models the convective forcing wants to go to the Maritime Continent and the IO at the end of this month into early February. If that happens it’s canonical Niña, -PNA/RNA, SE ridge city .
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This run almost turned it into FROPA but it’s probably wrong. It was all disjointed, energy flying all over and this solution is most likely trash .
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The new Euro is about to be rain to Quebec City .
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I figured 01-02 would be on that list too. Kind of surprised it wasn’t. That was one of the biggest ratters of all time. Worse than 11-12 and 97-98. 19-20 was pretty ugly too from late December on .
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Not sure about ORH. This morning Eric Fisher said Boston itself is still awaiting its first inch of snow. It’s pretty wild .
