snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I agree. To me this is an I-84 north WWA event, south of there? Not so much. The high is moving away, very marginal boundary layer, low cutting into Lake Erie, during the day, this isn’t screaming big front end dump south of I-84
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The globals should *hopefully* come to a better consensus at 0z tonight
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It’s showing the biggest dump of snow on the front end out of all the other global models. I’m skeptical but we’ll see. Verbatim, it has a plowable snowfall for Westchester, Bergen, Rockland on north and west. IMO it’s overdone
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If that’s the case it’s onto February, record broken lol
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I’ve been thinking March too but Larry Cosgrove thinks it’s game over for winter by the start of March. He’s been dead wrong about the cold and snow all winter long, watch him be right about that lol
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Don’t even bother looking at the NAM anymore it’s been absolutely horrible since November. That said, to me Wednesday morning is a quick inch or two then over to all rain
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Tomorrow is very doubtful but definitely growing evidence the NYC snow drought ends Wednesday morning
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It looks like this failed attempt will actually cause a ++NAO in February as well with the TPV over Greenland
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Should have said 5 mets. Steve DiMartino was big into the SSWE hype for weeks too. But that’s not a surprise coming from him
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Certain weenie mets ran with it on social media and weather enthusiasts who don’t know any better fell for all the hype. IMO they are doing a disservice to meteorology and the weather community in general by wishcasting and spreading misinformation. It’s a group of 4 mets (Joe Bastardi, Mark Margavage, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann) who are really bad and have big followings on twitter. Their followers retweet and spread their voodoo far and wide
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Looks like HM was right. The SSWE fell by the wayside. The SPV restrengthens again in February
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Looks like HM was right, the SSWE fell by the wayside. The SPV restrengthens again in February
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Larry Cosgrove says winter ends with the arrival of March in his new newsletter. Don’t know how it can end when it never even started. I guess he’s finally giving up after being wrong all winter
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I’m kinda shocked Bernie Rayno isn’t doing videos on Wednesday. Usually he’s all over possible northeast snow events days in advance. I guess either he’s busy or unimpressed by it
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The HREF is probably the closest to reality. Rain to snow setups generally underperform in our area. Also, a very marginal airmass and those 10:1 ratio maps are going to be grossly overdone
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The GFS is likely overdone for both events. That said I’m still confident in NYC seeing “something” Wednesday
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Theme of this winter. NWS Upton has zero snow south of Orange County for tomorrow/Mon: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter
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I’m trying to be optimistic lol I’ll get accused of trolling if I say what I really think lol
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Yes. It was the 1st day of astronomical spring
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The 6z and 12z GFS are clear outliers. No other models are showing what they did. Its suppressed/cold bias was very clearly at work
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I still think NYC ends up getting measurable snow
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Besides the boundary layer being marginal, the Euro is torching the midlevels very very quickly on Wednesday on this run, way faster than any of its previous runs
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^This! Especially with an Aleutian ridge/strong RNA setup. The models have been doing this for the last 3 months only to correct as we get closer. Same story with the SE ridge
