snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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This is the furthest west the West Pacific Warm Pool has been since 2011. This will definitely have an effect on the tropical convective forcing this winter:
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Isn’t that the same model that showed us going into an El Niño by this time last year and grossly underestimated the current La Niña? Models rush things big time and since it’s standing alone without any other support right now…but anyhow, late November/early December would be a normal peak time for this Niña, so what exactly does that prove? This will be yet another La Niña winter in the series of 3….
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This may play a role in the tropical forcing this winter….this is the furthest west the West Pacific warm pool has been since 2011:
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Agreed. From what I’ve read and you know a lot more than me, so correct me if I’m wrong but you need tropical like ocean temps, evaporation, latent and sensible heat release from the ocean to the atmosphere to start a positive feedback loop strong enough to alter the global longwave pattern
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100%
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Say goodbye to those warmer waters in the GOA and along the Western North American coast in 3, 2, 1…..
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The entire basin is in a La Niña. Once every Nino region is very solidly into a La Niña, does it even matter anymore as far as feedbacks?
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No that’s not what I do
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Those warmer waters near the west coast are the result of a transient pattern, they aren’t causing or forcing anything nor are they anywhere near warm enough to cause a positive feedback loop. All you need is a -PNA and they go bye bye real fast
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If I’m not mistaken I think the official number for September was -2? But yea, it’s not AS negative as it’s been and I agree about it not trending up until the Niña is gone
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The PDO is not positive at all, in fact it’s strongly negative. Look at all the extremely warm waters by Japan. It’s obviously negative and looks to remain so
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It already passed the US House and Senate and the President signed it last year. It goes into effect in 2023. This March, we change the clocks for the final time and go on permanent Daylight Savings from now on
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I’m going to go out on a limb and say it’s the exact same thing that he’s predicted for winter on the east coast every single year for more than the last two decades……
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I don’t understand how you put out a winter forecast with zero explanation or discussion, nothing, nada. Just “I think it’s going to be very cold and snowy”. Wow just wow
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This Niña is definitely a basin-wide event now and it’s been a very, very long time Nino region 4 has been this cold. Can’t remember the last time it was over -1.0C
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This Niña is definitely a basin-wide event now and it’s been a very, very long time Nino region 4 has been this cold. Can’t remember the last time it was over -1.0C
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Thanks to AGW, the beloved October Siberian snowcover buildup index has become basically useless over the last 10 years:
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And this is why watching Siberian snowcover buildup in October has basically become useless over the last 10 years #AGW….
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I’m sure it is biased warm lol I just posted that to joke with you. Here are the more important new model runs with the H5 charts:
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Excellent post, I mentioned this a few days ago. The tropical convective forcing has been in the eastern IO and maritime continent this entire fall so far….really since August. Very consistent convection in that region. Right now it is producing the +PNA pattern, once the wavelengths and feedbacks change going into winter, if the main forcing stays there, we are in serious trouble
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A lot of very bad info going around Twitter right now saying the PDO is positive…totally false. It is actually strongly negative and here’s why:
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The +NAO/+AO actually helped that winter or a few of the storms that hit would have been OTS and south. The models kept severely underestimating the SE ridge/WAR and were showing misses then in the last day or two the NAM was the 1st to pickup on the jog back west and north from the SE ridge/WAR push
