snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The blocking started breaking down around mid-January and by the last week of the month, that winter was over
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Actually for New England, you can get away with Maritime Continent forcing, I mean when isn’t New England not in the game for winter weather? Eastern IO forcing? Game over. But I would not want to live anywhere south of New England come January if the forcing is over the Maritime Continent
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Yes, there is mounting evidence that late November and December are cold, i.e. a true front-loaded canonical La Niña, typical with Maritime Continent forcing. However, Maritime Continent forcing works well until you get into the end of December and January/February with the wavelength change, then it’s torch city
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If anyone puts stock in this index, pray for a miracle the next 8 days, nothing has changed since 10/19:
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IMO we are probably 5 or 6 weeks away from the peak of this Niña event. Thanksgiving week give or take would be my guess
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His profile says he’s a “winter weather expert”
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Yea, that severe decades long -PDO back then really ruined east coast winters right? You know some of the coldest and snowiest winters on record lol These guys really need to stop listening to Joe Bastardi. MJO812 literally screenshotted JB’s SST graphic on his recent tweet to prove his east coast cold and snow obsession
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Looks like yet another official La Niña winter. The latest updated plumes don’t have it dissipating to neutral until March/April now, the previous runs rushed it as was expected:
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I guess people forget the 1960’s and 1970’s when the PDO was severely negative
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Bye Felicia
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This is the furthest west the West Pacific Warm Pool has been since 2011. This will definitely have an effect on the tropical convective forcing this winter:
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Isn’t that the same model that showed us going into an El Niño by this time last year and grossly underestimated the current La Niña? Models rush things big time and since it’s standing alone without any other support right now…but anyhow, late November/early December would be a normal peak time for this Niña, so what exactly does that prove? This will be yet another La Niña winter in the series of 3….
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This may play a role in the tropical forcing this winter….this is the furthest west the West Pacific warm pool has been since 2011:
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Agreed. From what I’ve read and you know a lot more than me, so correct me if I’m wrong but you need tropical like ocean temps, evaporation, latent and sensible heat release from the ocean to the atmosphere to start a positive feedback loop strong enough to alter the global longwave pattern
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100%
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Say goodbye to those warmer waters in the GOA and along the Western North American coast in 3, 2, 1…..
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The entire basin is in a La Niña. Once every Nino region is very solidly into a La Niña, does it even matter anymore as far as feedbacks?
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No that’s not what I do
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Those warmer waters near the west coast are the result of a transient pattern, they aren’t causing or forcing anything nor are they anywhere near warm enough to cause a positive feedback loop. All you need is a -PNA and they go bye bye real fast
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If I’m not mistaken I think the official number for September was -2? But yea, it’s not AS negative as it’s been and I agree about it not trending up until the Niña is gone
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The PDO is not positive at all, in fact it’s strongly negative. Look at all the extremely warm waters by Japan. It’s obviously negative and looks to remain so
