snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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No need to curse. I don’t have an agenda. My opinion is that 2000-2001 is the best analog for this winter despite the QBO and PDO. I think we can all agree that winter was not a torch and given the winters over the last 7 years since 2015 I think everyone would take it and run
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Yea I was going to say, not really sure how that looks stormy and wet
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@40/70 BenchmarkAre you also seeing a possible warm to very warm (torch?) November? Some of the models are showing a shift to eastern IO forcing starting the end of this month and in November
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Just be patient, you will get your Modoki El Niño next winter. IMO this Niña isn’t going officially neutral/La Nada until the beginning of April give or take. This is a very healthy Niña event (which I believe is going to be solidly moderate) we are in the midst of right now
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How many times do I have to tell you I don’t think it’s going strong? 20? 30? I have said moderate all along and possibly high end moderate since July and I believe it’s going to peak come late November or December
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And besides region 4 being cold, this Niña is about to strengthen, there are still extremely cold subsurface anomalies and there is yet another very strong Easterly Wind Burst in progress:
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He’s not my “buddy” and who cares at this point? It’s not east-based, Nino region 4 is solidly in a La Niña and has been for months.
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If there was any question whether or not the Hunga Tonga eruption will reach the northern hemisphere’s stratosphere by winter, that has now been answered. The only question that remains is what effect will this have on the SPV?
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There is some evidence that we may see eastern IO forcing in November….if that’s actually the case, torch city
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In addition to the strong -EPO/-WPO there was ++PNA and a ridiculously ++PDO. Purely PAC driven winters. The NAO and AO were positive as hell those 2 winters
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There are so many theories floating around twitter right now because no one knows what it’s going to do this winter. Everything from nothing (doubtful) to warm stratosphere to cold stratosphere to SPV on roids to record weak SPV. If anyone says they know for sure what’s going to happen they are lying or wishcasting. There are no similar events to look back on, this was a historic volcanic eruption in respect to the H2O vapor released into the stratosphere with nothing even close to being comparable
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No one can say either way what effects it will have on the stratosphere because this (Hunga Tonga) has never happened before in history. We don’t know for sure what it’s going to do. The thing I would be most concerned about is the current high solar flux, if it was to continue through winter, we may have a problem
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We have to let the northern hemisphere SPV get established through this winter to see what effects it has
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One thing is for sure, with the obscene amount of water vapor that got ejected into the stratosphere it is definitely going to do “something” very significant. What exactly that something is….I guess we will see this winter
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Agreed and I think if there are some curveballs this winter it won’t be the Niña/QBO/IOD/PDO/MJO/Atlantic SSTs/ACE it will be Hunga Tonga or the high solar activity or both
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Missed this, interesting write up. I think the strong -IOD is influencing the MJO’s behavior. Also agree about more Niña strengthening over the course of the fall
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Keep an eye on what is going on now, we are in the midst of very high solar activity: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2022/08/02/the-sun-is-now-more-active-than-nasa-predicted-it-could-be-in-its-strongest-cycle-since-records-began/amp/
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If there wasn’t the very high solar flux that winter, on paper, that winter probably would have been a good one for the east coast. He made himself look like a fool with the famous “vodka cold” comment and the instance that it was coming until he finally admitted that it was a lost cause come mid-February of 2002
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01-02 was “ruined” by a high solar flux from September through the end of March. The UV from the high solar flux warmed the low and middle latitudes and greatly shrunk the SPV. It strengthened the westerlies and there was screaming zonal and semi-zonal flow the entire winter
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11-12 was another real doozy from him. He kept predicting major cold and snow in the east that entire winter. He didn’t finally admit defeat until mid-February
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No lol I’m joking but would it surprise you if those are actually that clown’s analogs?
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JB’s analogs are 1917-1918, 1995-1996, 2010-2011…..
