snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Come March 15th and beyond, it’s basically over for everyone south of New England minus some freak, anomalous event. At that point you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day and it only continues to get worse after that point
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The CMC doesn’t even develop a storm anymore on the new run
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While a total shutout is unlikely, I would say if NYC gets to 3/1 with only a 0.4 snow total still, the chances of a big comeback would be extremely slim IMO. March climo for NYC would argue against it
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The GFS just did it with the last snow event for Boston. It was the furthest east of all models and kept correcting further and further west right up until the event. Go back and look at the progression of model runs from it. It had it as a total miss at one point
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The fact that the GFS is showing an inland runner is a red flag IMO. At this range you want the GFS being a complete miss to the east given it’s progressive/suppressed bias because you know it’s only going to correct further and further west as we get closer in time. Normally if there’s going to be an east coast snowstorm, at this point in time before the event, the GFS is a whiff while all the other models show something hitting
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I was referring to NYC where MJO812 is from
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Shrooms
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There is no guarantee of anything with the SPV, @coastalwx is right it’s voodoo and even if a SSW happens there’s no guarantee what it does
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No blocking
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Looks like it’s going to continue to affect the pattern into March. It doesn’t want to give up
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Just keep in mind that those RMM plots are very noisy
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The whim of a moderator in the playground NYC forum with a grudge and very weird obsession with me, I think he has a basement setup like the one from The Silence Of The Lambs
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Another rainstorm for NYC, that’s not a snowstorm pattern. Stop believing twitter, they’ve been wrong all winter
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The same crew that has been wishcasting snowstorms since November for DC/BAL/PHL/NYC is trying to wishcast next weekend into a another snowstorm for them. You’d think after being wrong over and over for the last 4 months they’d get embarrassed, humble and stop but nope. The hype machine is still in full effect
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For who?
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I get it you hate me. Everytime I post you jump all over me and try to embarrass me. You win, not worth it anymore. I’m done. Not posting in here again. You finally bullied and harassed me away. Not worth the headache anymore, this has been a tit for tat game for years
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Do you not see the WWA for 2-3 inches of snow for Rockland??? These models don’t even have an inch
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ICON: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2023012506&fh=21 3k NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012506&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= HRRR: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023012509&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012506&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Today is going to bust IMO. The new 3K NAM, RGEM, HRRR and ICON all have a total non event
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NAM = Trash
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View anything the NAM shows with extreme skepticism. It did an absolutely horrendous job Monday, the HRRR and RGEM did the best
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The new HRRR basically starts it as rain from Rockland/Bergen/Westchester south
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I’m sure they have their reasons. No models are showing Rockland getting 2-3 inches, not one. The Euro, which is the snowy outlier is the only one showing anything close to that if you use 10:1 ratios, which tomorrow won’t be, the Kuchera is much less. Everything else (12K/3K NAM, RGEM, GFS, HRDPS, CMC, HRRR, ICON, UKMET, FV3, HREF) don’t show that kind of accumulation
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NAM caved to the RGEM
