snowman19

Given a favorable synoptic pattern, those super warm waters along the coast will enhance baroclinic instability/coastal fronts, but like you and I discussed earlier, good luck getting all snow events anywhere near the coast in December, there will be boundary layer issues galore in anything but an absolutely perfect setup

We agree it’s not going to get strong. The NMME is suggesting a +NAO, if you watch the loop, it has a big cold pool develop around and south of Greenland and up into Davis Straight during winter. That is definitely not a -NAO signature. Not saying it’s right so I’m not sure where Ben Noll thinks it’s showing a -NAO

Of course there are no absolutes or slam dunks, however, I will say this, La Niña, QBO, PDO, IOD, ACE, Atlantic SSTs, volcanoes aside, if the current high solar flux continues, it’s definitely not a good sign for this upcoming winter

I wouldn’t call that pattern an all out torch. The only thing saving that from happening is the east-based -NAO it’s showing. If @40/70 Benchmarkis right and we see a flat Aleutian high this winter, we will need all the help we can get from the NAO because I don’t think we are going to sustain any +PNA or -EPO. I’m also skeptical about the AO cooperating much

I never said December would torch. December may in fact be the best month of the winter. However, high solar flux and geomag/Niña/+QBO/record volcanic water vapor in the stratosphere/current Atlantic SSTs are definitely not screaming a -AO/-NAO winter to me. I don’t think HM is suggesting that we should expect that either in that tweet. I will also say the Niña and it’s configuration/west lean, whatever we want to call it and the -PDO are also not screaming a 2013-14 +PNA/-EPO to me either. I don’t think we are going to see the big poleward Aleutian ridging like we did last winter either

I’m not so sure this Niña is basin-wide

Lol I think we can rest assured we won’t see a record RNA like last December. The EPS seasonal depiction is showing an east-based -NAO which would probably be beneficial to interior central and northern New England. I think areas near the coast are going to have problems early on in the season with the bathwater just off shore

The new EPS seasonal for December is showing why you need a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) to get cold into the pattern. At face value, it’s showing a flat Aleutian high and it allows PAC air to flood the pattern:

Some good articles Eric linked to if anyone would like to read up on this:

I would put the chances of a 13-14 or 14-15 style +PNA/-EPO on roids winter at very, very low and extremely unlikely, those winters were driven by ++PDO. Despite what I’m seeing from some of the twitterologists, besides this year having super low Atlantic ACE, it is nothing at all like 13-14, like not even in the ballpark of that year

We shall see. I think this is going to be an Aleutian Ridge/High dependent winter, I expect that to be the biggest main feature given the Nina, question is, is it flat or poleward (-WPO)? You want as much -WPO as possible to keep Canada from getting overrun by PAC maritime air, so when you get blocking it can pull some arctic down

While I don’t think 97-98, 01-02, 11-12 or 19-20 are walking through the door, IMO the preliminary indicators right now are not encouraging for any sustained Atlantic or arctic (-AO, -NAO) blocking nor are they for any sustained PAC (+PNA, -EPO) blocking. I also think this La Niña is being underestimated by some, it is very well coupled (MEI) and it will definitely make its presence felt. As I’ve said before, while I doubt strong, I can easily see a high-end moderate ONI peak

I don’t think anyone in this forum implied that, in fact if you look at the total shut out winters, they were either super El Niño or neutral/La Nada following a Niña the previous winter

I don’t think it goes strong ONI as I have already said. However, high-end moderate/borderline strong is absolutely possible

These SSTs off the east coast of North America are insane, hot tub water. They are only going to serve to positively feedback into and strengthen the WAR/SE ridge:

I don’t follow his logic, if it caused the stratosphere to cool during winter in the Southern Hemisphere, why would it cause the stratosphere in the northern hemisphere to warm? The stratosphere is the stratosphere and water vapor in the stratosphere has been scientifically proven to cool it, doesn’t matter if it’s south of north of the equator. Water vapor from the eruption has already infiltrated the northern hemisphere. He’s also talking about SSWEs, I was honestly confused by that article. Is the author a meteorologist?

The little respect I still had left for JB was lost back in the fall of 2015 when he was trying to hype the super El Niño into a “west-based” super El Niño and was still arguing that it was going to be a cold and snowy winter for the east coast. He had 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”. He made himself into a total damned fool and so did Judah Cohen who was calling for a very cold/snowy winter because of Siberian snowcover (SAI) that October despite Nino region 3.4 hitting an all time record of +3.1C at the end of November

@40/70 Benchmarkand anyone else interested, here is research regarding +QBO/Niña years: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022JD036691

The high solar flux continues:

Thank you. I’m actually surprised this event is so robust….normally the 3rd Niña in a “triple dip” event is the weakest….that is not the case this year, the MEI is also indicating a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) Niña :

How many low Atlantic ACE/La Niña/volcanic years did you find? Also, what was the QBO, IOD, solar and PDO doing in those years? Thank you

According to this link HM shared, the record amount of water vapor ejected into the stratosphere should cool it and warm the troposphere below: Link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381?campaign=woletoc

I doubt a strong ONI peak too but I think a high-end moderate/borderline strong peak is absolutely possible over the next 4 months given the current trends