snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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No one can say either way what effects it will have on the stratosphere because this (Hunga Tonga) has never happened before in history. We don’t know for sure what it’s going to do. The thing I would be most concerned about is the current high solar flux, if it was to continue through winter, we may have a problem
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We have to let the northern hemisphere SPV get established through this winter to see what effects it has
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One thing is for sure, with the obscene amount of water vapor that got ejected into the stratosphere it is definitely going to do “something” very significant. What exactly that something is….I guess we will see this winter
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Agreed and I think if there are some curveballs this winter it won’t be the Niña/QBO/IOD/PDO/MJO/Atlantic SSTs/ACE it will be Hunga Tonga or the high solar activity or both
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Missed this, interesting write up. I think the strong -IOD is influencing the MJO’s behavior. Also agree about more Niña strengthening over the course of the fall
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Keep an eye on what is going on now, we are in the midst of very high solar activity: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2022/08/02/the-sun-is-now-more-active-than-nasa-predicted-it-could-be-in-its-strongest-cycle-since-records-began/amp/
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If there wasn’t the very high solar flux that winter, on paper, that winter probably would have been a good one for the east coast. He made himself look like a fool with the famous “vodka cold” comment and the instance that it was coming until he finally admitted that it was a lost cause come mid-February of 2002
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01-02 was “ruined” by a high solar flux from September through the end of March. The UV from the high solar flux warmed the low and middle latitudes and greatly shrunk the SPV. It strengthened the westerlies and there was screaming zonal and semi-zonal flow the entire winter
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11-12 was another real doozy from him. He kept predicting major cold and snow in the east that entire winter. He didn’t finally admit defeat until mid-February
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No lol I’m joking but would it surprise you if those are actually that clown’s analogs?
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JB’s analogs are 1917-1918, 1995-1996, 2010-2011…..
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Yea. Eastern Indian Ocean forcing = dead in the water. Maritime Continent = maybe “serviceable” until February and March with the wavelength changes then no good
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We’ll see where the main tropical convective forcing/MJO waves want to setup this fall, going into early met winter….if it wants to set up over the eastern part of the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent then we have issues
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As the saying goes…pow wow go towe towe da da da yea ok da da da
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The updated NWS CPC winter forecast FWIW: https://wjon.com/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-climate-prediction-center/
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People are obsessed with seeing a high Atlantic ACE season because of 95-96. That winter was historic for more than that, you had a strongly +PDO/+PMM….extremely rare in a Niña, it was a weak east-based Niña and it was coming off an El Niño the winter before so it had the active STJ. You also had a classic Atlantic “tripole” look in the SSTAs
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Got ya. Yea, I was just looking at SSWEs during official La Niña years and what solar and QBO were doing
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Was 2009 high solar?
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I’m seeing some UK forecasters on twitter talking about how there is going to be a high probability of a SSW this year….not sure what they are looking at or where they are getting this from. If you look at it statistically, this upcoming winter is very unlikely to see a SSW (La Niña/high solar/+QBO). In order of most likely to least likely to see a SSWE, it would be: Niña/low solar/-QBO, Niña/high solar/-QBO, Niña/low solar/+QBO, Niña/high solar/+QBO
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The studies I’ve read have shown that the overwhelming majority of the time ENSO forces the PDO state, most notably in the fall. It is very rare to have an “out of sync” ENSO/PDO (i.e. Niña/+PDO or Nino/-PDO), that’s why 95-96 was such a rare breed. The PDO is still negative right now. Given the propensity for strong -PDO the last few years and that we have a healthy Niña, my guess is that we see a significant PDO drop by late November. We will see though
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Question is, is this the beginning of an actual full scale PDO shift despite the -ENSO, or just a temporary, transient reflection of the current pattern? If it is still doing this in November, then something may be going on. I believe last year, the big PDO drop didn’t happen until we were into October and November. Definitely something to watch
