snowman19

@Volcanic Winter The volcanic aspect of this coming winter:

No

This has low ACE Atlantic hurricane season written all over it:

Still very early but there are some signs that the AO/NAO may not cooperate. Again very early but 1) the Atlantic SSTA profile is not suggestive of -NAO, no semblance of a “tripole”, nor has there been this year, 2) possible low ACE Atlantic hurricane season? 3) high solar 4) Modoki Nina/+QBO, when accompanied by high solar you rarely see SSWs and it generally favors a colder stratosphere 5) volcanic stratospheric effects, unknown what effects the record amount of water vapor spewed into the stratosphere will have but we had a major tropical volcanic eruption this year (January) that reached the stratosphere none the less and the first year after an eruption normally results in +AO. This all is definitely not screaming arctic and Atlantic high latitude blocking to me but we’ll see….

If the models are correct, we are ENSO-neutral and warming come April, assuming that’s correct, a Nino would be a definite possibility by next summer/fall

This may explain things too:

La Niña/+QBO as a sweeping generally favors a cooler stratosphere than a -QBO/Niña. If you look at SSWE’s (just for Nina’s) in order of most likely to occur to least likely to occur it would be this order: most likely: Niña/-QBO/low solar, Niña/-QBO/high solar, Niña/+QBO/low solar and least likely for a SSW: Niña/+QBO/high solar

This fall should be interesting. Paul Roundy touched on it last week but he said the -IOD and +QBO are going to have effects on the MJO waves and propagation this winter. Though strong MJO events can happen in +QBO, they are much less likely than -QBO he had said

Here’s some more on the IOD, Paul Roundy thinks this -IOD event is strong enough to cause Bjerknes feedback and keep it going, a very unusual situation:

I know you disagree but there’s talk of this event possibly going strong this winter, if region 3.4 really goes to -2C that would be record breaking:

-IOD actually promotes and reinforces La Niña development and causes Niña-like impacts on the pattern, they feedback on each other. The vast majority of -IOD’s occur during Nina’s and very rarely occur during Ninos. If there wasn’t a -IOD event back in 2016, that La Niña would have never even developed. See here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12674-z

http://www.oceansatlas.org/subtopic/en/c/656/

This multi-year Niña event is most likely over and done come early spring. The models have it falling apart and region 3.4 warming to neutral (La Nada) come March/April

This -IOD event means business, it’s already strong and gaining strength as we speak and it’s definitely going to have an effect on the global long wave pattern (MJO/tropical convective forcing) and already is. It is also helping to strengthen the La Niña, this EWB is extremely impressive:

This -IOD means business (getting stronger as we speak) and it’s going to make its presence felt on the global longwave pattern, it already is. It is also serving to help strengthen this Niña even more going into fall as we are seeing now, this EWB is pretty incredible:

I should say the IOD is on it’s own cycle

This -IOD event started independent of the La Niña a couple of months ago. It should max out sometime in October. I think it will definitely have an impact on the tropical forcing/MJO going into winter

The IOD links I have are from google searches over the years. HM and Isotherm may be able to guide you better on that, they are well versed in it. As far as the La Niña, every model has it falling apart completely come March/April and region 3.4 finally going neutral then. Still way out in fantasy land but I think this 3 year event is done for good come spring, 2023

We are well on our way to this summer being one of the hottest in the last 45 years

Are you buying the models showing a moderate Niña peak in December?

I think part of what made 10-11 and 95-96 so good was they came off of an El Niño the previous winter so there was probably still some Nino lag going on. They both had a very active STJ those winters. 95-96 was also a strong +PDO winter, which is very unusual for a La Niña

For the most part, Nina’s are always better for New England…minus 95-96 and 10-11. The 2000-2001 winter had a cold/snowy December, January and February torched then winter made a comeback in March. It was remembered as a “decent” winter because of the December and March cold and the early March blizzard for parts of New England. That storm missed NYC - south, one of the worst busts of all time for that area….after days of blizzard hype, they even shutdown NYC in preparation for next to nothing

There is mounting evidence for a cold December like Dec, 2000 and possibly a weaker SPV, at least to start December. I think we need to watch what the sun does, it’s been very active so far this year and what effects the strong -IOD has on MJO waves/tropical convective forcing. A La Niña (possible Modoki?), -PDO and +QBO are the givens at this point. Personally, I can care less what arctic sea ice and Siberian snowcover does, but that’s just my opinion….

At this very early juncture, 2000-2001 is probably the best match, minus the +QBO we will have this coming winter, but other than that, it’s a pretty decent analog, as long as cold expectations are adjusted for today’s warmer climate…..