snowman19

This La Niña is definitely becoming more “west-biased” as opposed to the last 2. Nino region 4 is the coldest it’s been since the late 1930’s

Yea, this one is definitely biased further west than last year like you had speculated, Nino region 4 is the coldest it’s been since the late 1930’s….

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Looks like a Modoki La Niña event is developing:

You had talked about this year’s La Niña being centered further west…..looks like this is becoming a Modoki event:

If the Euro is correct, parts of the metro will hit 100 degrees on Wednesday. It looks like an absolutely brutal day to be outside

@brooklynwx99Not sure if this would have winter implications on the Atlantic side (SSTs) but It’s starting to look like the calls for a very hyperactive hurricane season may not pan out:

It also looks like the calls back in the spring for a hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane season may be in some jeopardy:

Here are some good sources: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_Dipole http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/IOD-what.shtml

Thanks to JB, a certain percentage of the population, particularly on the east coast, live in a delusional alternative reality and think AGW is a hoax and we are really going into an ice age. Any talk of a warming climate is just a big lie and a conspiracy. Black is white, white is black, down is up and up is down…..

AGW is also playing a big role in the present day….when analogs from 20+ years ago are used, it has to be done carefully with respect to the new warmer background state, the type of cold back then should not be expected this time around even if everything else matches up analog wise, on a smaller temp scale, don’t expect the same cold result you had 20+ years ago

-IOD’s serve to enhance La Niña development. El Niño’s very rarely happen along with a -IOD, the overwhelming majority of the time you see a +IOD with El Niño. You can see a positive or negative IOD phase with a Niña, but the -IOD really helps to augment the Niña state. When the IOD is in a very strong positive or negative phase, as it is now, its effects are even stronger. It is currently having a very significant impact on the MJO waves and their propagation, as I posted earlier, I would expect this to certainly continue into winter…..

@bluewave @donsutherland1 We discussed the very strong -IOD event a couple of weeks back, it looks to be having a very significant impact on MJO wave progressions. This may prove to be really important going into winter:

@40/70 Benchmark Something else to consider is the strong -IOD, it may alter the MJO wave progressions into this winter:

The models playing catch-up and getting stronger with the Niña as we get closer in time to fall….shades of the last 2 summers:

Yea, Dec, 2000 was cold, Jan and Feb torched then winter made a comeback of sorts in March, 2001. I was a young kid then but I remember the “blizzard” that never was early that month that shut NYC down for no reason. All the blizzard hype in the days prior for nothing

Well yea about the QBO last year lol I guess it helped as much as the low-solar, Siberian snowcover/SAI and arctic sea ice arguments the last several years

What are your thoughts on 2000-2001 being an analog? I’m seeing a lot talk of that on twitter which I can understand for the 3rd year “triple dip” La Niña and -PDO, not sure what the solar state/cycle was doing at that point. My issue is the QBO, it was going negative into that winter and this year it’s going positive, I see that as a big issue. We also did not have a very strong -IOD as we do now. And we have to account for AGW 22 years later…..

I’m seeing some grumbling about 2000-2001 being a possible analog for this year, which I can see for the triple dip La Niña, and also the -PDO, however, the QBO was going in the opposite direction from what is it now, it was going negative into winter, this year we are going positive and I’m not sure of the solar state back then

We are in the running for the 1st legit drought in the NYC metro area since 2002

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Do you guys have access to the QBO forecast projections? Just read a tweet saying models are showing it getting very strongly positive come winter. Thank you in advance

Huh? We are currently seeing the strongest easterly wind burst in history. And we are in a long term -PDO cycle. The Niña is about to strengthen big time

We are about to see very impressive Niña strengthening:

The new NMME has trended stronger with the La Niña and the -IOD. It peaks the Niña at moderate strength late fall into early winter:

It’s hard to believe there hasn’t been a legit drought in the NYC metro area for over 20 years. I guess the streak has to be broken eventually. I honestly can’t remember it being as dry like it is right now in my memory, the soil moisture has to be way low, there’s a lot of brown lawns to be seen in my area…..something that has been very, very rare in recent history

Good post. I think the big unknown is the effects of the record amount of water vapor it ejected into the stratosphere like you had mentioned