snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Wouldn’t a -EPO, -PNA/RNA, +NAO work for New England in December? I know south of there would probably have issues
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It looks like a strong -EPO/+TNH pattern sets up mid-late month and probably into early December….question is does it have staying power beyond the beginning of December? It may depend on the MJO progression….
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The GFS is way too far east/south as usual. Jesus what a God awful model that thing is
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The models are getting stronger with the tropical system and the phasing with the Great Lakes shortwave coming across. I have a feeling this is going to turn into a really big event next Saturday. Possible high wind and heavy rain impact
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Hard to believe it’s a week into November and we are tracking a tropical cyclone event possibly impacting our area lol
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There is no narrative. If the new Euro seasonal is correct, anywhere south of New England is done, finished, say goodnight and goodbye. That is fact, not opinion, not a troll, not a guess
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It looks bad if you are south of New England. New England is always in the game for winter wx no matter what
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Do you know how to read that map?
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Here is the new Euro seasonal:
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I know you don’t put much stock into models and neither do I, but the new Euro seasonal is really ugly for Jan and Feb, the real “winter” month may be December like you have been suggesting (i.e. 2000/20001):
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@40/70 Benchmark
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If we do in fact get near or actually hit 80 or over on Monday, that’s probably the last time until March at least….
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Good call on the basin wide moderate La Niña. I never bought strong but I did think a higher end moderate Niña was possible, didn’t happen
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In a “typical” canonical La Niña, February is the warmest month with forcing over the Maritime Continent/IO. Mid-late January usually starts the warmer pattern. March is really a toss up in Nina’s, some warm, some cold
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I don’t believe anything, simply stating what that particular model run showed lol
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FWIW the new CANSIPS goes with a cold December then RNA/SE ridge, game over for everyone south of New England come January
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FWIW the new CANSIPS has a cold Dec then goes -PNA/SE ridge for Jan and Feb
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The final calculations won’t be done for a few more days, but I just read on Twitter that it’s probably going to be very low
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@40/70 BenchmarkAny idea how Siberian/Eurasian snowcover will end up for October? The Canadian snowcover buildup doesn’t look that impressive for the 1st day of November:
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I agree. When doesn’t any ENSO event not die during the winter? Every Niña or Nino normally peaks between October and December then fades out during the winter. That’s 100% a normal progression. And yes there is a lag whether certain people want to admit it or not
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It’s literally the same exact forecast year after year from DT…he always says whatever ENSO event (Niña/Nino) we are in is going to die very quickly, it won’t matter by mid-winter and it’s going to be cold and snowy on the east coast. He’s predicted the last 5 winters in a row to be cold and snowy with blocking
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My point was that as soon as some people see a -EPO they automatically assume a huge full latitude trough and arctic cold dump into the east. That graphic showed that’s not always the case
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Another Twitter myth debunked, “-EPO = cold in the east”…..nah, not really:
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Yes. I never believed the whole snowcover theory either. It’s just funny how certain things only get hyped to no end on Twitter when perceived “favorable” then when they are not, crickets
