snowman19

Either way it’s officially over on 3/20, the equinox will not be denied :-)

I have to go back and look

And the models have backed way off the “extreme cold” and snow pattern for the east that was being hyped for mid-month. As we draw closer in time, they are correcting much stronger with the SE ridge after being way too aggressive with squashing it in the long range

Well, well, well…..and the CMC starts its fold….total snowfall for the next 10 days: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030600&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Yes, looks crippling over the next 10 days on the most severely cold biased, inaccurate model we have: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030518&fh=246&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

The CMC is now in a universe all to its own for Wednesday, none of the other models (Euro, GFS, UKMET, ICON) have it

Doorman, of course is using the severely cold biased GFS, the worst scoring model there is. Has been abysmal all winter long. This is the same guy who insisted we were getting a major snowstorm with the last event and we didn’t see so much as a flake even up here in Rockland. He insisted it was going to be a big snow event right up until it started when it was blatantly obvious it was way too warm in the midlevels, it started and ended as all sleet

BTW, good call on doubting the staying power of that cold shot next weekend. Also looks like that cold shot moderates and may not be as cold as what was being shown by the models back on Mon/Tues. By 3/16 we are into another warm pattern, looks like the SE ridge pumps right back up due to lack of a -NAO and the AK ridge retrogrades to the Bering Sea

The cold doesn’t last lol it’s in and out….SE ridge and AK ridge retrograde FTW lol Dee dee dee

It’s only ok when you post it because it shows snow huh?

We have seen this time and again in +NAO patterns…the models grossly underestimate the SE ridge in the long range, only to correct much stronger as we draw closer. If we get to 3/15 without any significant snow, the likelihood of getting a major snow event in the NYC metro after that date is very slim. I mentioned it last night, but if you go back to 1979, you can see how rare NYC snowstorms after 3/15 actually are, the numbers are extremely low when you add them all up over the last 43 years….

The pattern shown on the operational models through 3/15 demonstrates the importance of having -NAO block in place….when you don’t, you get this as a result: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030406&fh=264&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Go back to 1979 and count all the major NYC snowstorms that occurred after 3/15 over that 43 year period, shouldn’t take you long at all. This is why I’m at a loss when I look at all these “great snow pattern coming mid-month (3/15) and beyond”….maybe central and northern New England score? Even among those freak/fluke, anomalous big NYC snowstorms post 3/15 over the last 43 years, almost every single one of them had solid -NAO blocking, which isn’t happening this time around. Not sure what the hype and excitement is about, despite what JB and his followers are saying on twitter

How did the last major “snowstorm” (or should I say sleet storm) you predicted work out for you?

The great snowstorm pattern is only 12-15 days away! Problem is when it’s March and it stays 12-15 days away in time, you run out of time very quickly. This isn’t December or January or February when you can keep moving the goal posts forward in time and kick the can down the road and still have viable climo winter left. In 12-15 days we are past 3/15, once past that date, good luck getting a major snowstorm in NYC, we aren’t central and northern New England. Climo, sun angle and length of day are big issues come mid-month at our latitude

The GFS lol

So much for that stratospheric warming and weakening, splitting SPV come mid-March hype….it recovers and goes right back to being strong as hell. Those -AO forecasts post 3/15 should be viewed with extreme skepticism

Too little too late and it’s the GFS which means it’s almost guaranteed to be wrong. A laughably horrible model

The amazing part is that it’s totally gone in less than 12 hours

You can set your watch to it, feels like it happens every late March anymore. There are growing signs showing up on guidance that after mid-month, a -AO/-NAO shows up, especially closer to the Equinox (3/20) on the other models. Hopefully that is dead wrong, no one wants to be backdoored with chilly, rainy crap weather at the end of March going into April

Yea, there are some hints in the super long range that a -AO/-NAO may develop (post 3/21), but that’s way too far out to speculate about yet and by then we will be past the Equinox and it would most likely result in a chilly, rainy backdoor pattern that no one will want at the end of March, IF it were to even happen. 3 weeks out, so we’ll see…. In the meantime, Happy Meteorological Spring everyone!! :-)

As you would say…voodoo

Get well soon

Dr. Lee is totally unimpressed with it, it’s not the same as a SSW split, the SPV very quickly recovers, it barely affects the NAM (AO) and it goes back to being severely positive right after: