snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Right!! Maybe if I post snow and cold fantasies and wishcasts it will really happen. That would have definitely made this winter much better. Once upon a time…..
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If this hyped -NAO takes until 3/13 to develop how much good are you expecting out of it?
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Still no signs of -NAM (-AO) response on the models into March. Still +NAM. You’re right, you usually don’t see this NAO/AO disconnect
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So this may not have an effect until the 2nd or 3rd week of March “week of 3/6 or 3/13” Tick toc, tick toc…..
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Day 8-9 on an op run is an eternity. It was just a few days ago that op models had a snowstorm for the middle of next week, we all know how that trended
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When you have a trough on the west coast digging down to Tijuana, it’s a bad thing even in March
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Congrats New England. We all know how this is going to trend over the next week. The PNA is dropping all the way to -5
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I really hope this doesn’t turn into a mid-March to the end of May raw rain and cloud fest with another totally ruined spring
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We agree to disagree. Just my opinion, the upstream pattern in the PAC is a total train wreck dumpster fire, there’s no arctic blocking (-AO) over the top, an east based NAO isn’t going to do the trick and lock in a 50/50 low and it would have to be timed absolutely perfectly to thread the needle before the low and confluence move away. We all know the SE ridge is going to trend stronger as we get closer in time, that’s a given. I’m skeptical, we’ll see
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First, the models have been too strong in the medium/long range with the 50/50 lows, see the last 4 months. Again, what is to stop that 50/50 vortex from simply moving right out into the Atlantic? There is no downstream block to keep it in place. You are talking thread the needle big time, especially given the very positive AO and the very strongly negative PNA. There’s a full latitude trough down to Baja
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Where’s the west based -NAO block to lock it in place and prevent it from escaping east? Also a ++AO and severely negative PNA
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Day 10 op CMC and day 10 op EURO. Sell. Same old pattern in place at that point. No -NAO block, no 50/50 low, huge -PNA dumped into the west, SE ridge, Sell
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IMO, the MJO 8-1-2 fantasy isn’t happening. This Niña has a Modoki signature now and it’s still well coupled (MEI is -1 and the SOI is still strongly positive) the Niña standing wave convection is still there and will destructively interfere with MJO wave propagation. Also, there’s cold water in the phase 8 region (Niña) and the trade winds are still strong….that’s going to shear the wave and kill the convection off. The only one harping on the MJO going into phase 8 is Joe Bastardi
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63 in Sloatsburg. Birds are out singing like it’s mid-March. Even saw a wasp flying around and some trees have budded. Insane
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They don’t start to shorten in a big way until mid-March on
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RNA trending stronger so shocking!!
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If this SSW doesn’t turn the east coast into an arctic tundra with 8 feet of snow come 3/31 a lot of hypesters are going to look really bad
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I never understood why some folks expect November to deliver the good with winter weather. Even though it gets difficult to get snows and arctic cold in March the deeper into the month you go depending on latitude, it’s much easier than in November. Just looking at climo alone, November is a torch compared to March. Also, SSTs along the coast are at their coolest in March making boundary layer wind fetch/direction off the ocean less detrimental to coastal areas
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I also think the unbelievably warm SSTs along and off the coast are causing a positive feedback loop, magnifying it even more
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Oh, the crappy PAC isn’t quitting anytime soon. It’s still total garbage going into early March and I’m sure beyond that point
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If we are going to see a turnaround in March the blocking has to show up come the 1st week, and I mean legit blocking in the NAO and AO domains because the PAC is still going to suck then. Then we start racing against the clock. If the blocking starts getting delayed beyond the 1st week of March, I think we’re done. I consider 3/15 the cutoff for anything other than a freak event at our latitude, there’s too much working against us cold and snow wise at that point and beyond
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Agree. If we get to 3/1 and we don’t have a legit -NAO block or at least one definitely imminent, it’s probably over. The Niña background state (RNA/SE ridge) isn’t going anywhere. The MEI is still -1 and the SOI is still strongly positive. The MJO 8-1-2 fantasies look to fail again, the Niña standing wave convection is still there and it’s going to destructively interfere with the MJO wave as it tries to propagate into phase 8, the enhanced trades shearing it aren’t going to help either
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It just started
