snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Those warmer waters near the west coast are the result of a transient pattern, they aren’t causing or forcing anything nor are they anywhere near warm enough to cause a positive feedback loop. All you need is a -PNA and they go bye bye real fast
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If I’m not mistaken I think the official number for September was -2? But yea, it’s not AS negative as it’s been and I agree about it not trending up until the Niña is gone
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The PDO is not positive at all, in fact it’s strongly negative. Look at all the extremely warm waters by Japan. It’s obviously negative and looks to remain so
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It already passed the US House and Senate and the President signed it last year. It goes into effect in 2023. This March, we change the clocks for the final time and go on permanent Daylight Savings from now on
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I’m going to go out on a limb and say it’s the exact same thing that he’s predicted for winter on the east coast every single year for more than the last two decades……
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I don’t understand how you put out a winter forecast with zero explanation or discussion, nothing, nada. Just “I think it’s going to be very cold and snowy”. Wow just wow
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This Niña is definitely a basin-wide event now and it’s been a very, very long time Nino region 4 has been this cold. Can’t remember the last time it was over -1.0C
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This Niña is definitely a basin-wide event now and it’s been a very, very long time Nino region 4 has been this cold. Can’t remember the last time it was over -1.0C
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Thanks to AGW, the beloved October Siberian snowcover buildup index has become basically useless over the last 10 years:
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And this is why watching Siberian snowcover buildup in October has basically become useless over the last 10 years #AGW….
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I’m sure it is biased warm lol I just posted that to joke with you. Here are the more important new model runs with the H5 charts:
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Excellent post, I mentioned this a few days ago. The tropical convective forcing has been in the eastern IO and maritime continent this entire fall so far….really since August. Very consistent convection in that region. Right now it is producing the +PNA pattern, once the wavelengths and feedbacks change going into winter, if the main forcing stays there, we are in serious trouble
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A lot of very bad info going around Twitter right now saying the PDO is positive…totally false. It is actually strongly negative and here’s why:
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The +NAO/+AO actually helped that winter or a few of the storms that hit would have been OTS and south. The models kept severely underestimating the SE ridge/WAR and were showing misses then in the last day or two the NAM was the 1st to pickup on the jog back west and north from the SE ridge/WAR push
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That was the winter with the crazy 24+ hour sleet storm. They actually had to plow it in my area. Never seen sleet accumulate like that in my life, had to be 4-5 inches worth all together
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@40/70 BenchmarkDid you look at 2016-2017? Yes, I know it was coming off the super El Nino, this Niña is much stronger and the current -PDO, high solar flux/geomag, Atlantic ACE and volcanic stratosphere don’t match up, however, it was strong -IOD, +QBO and unfavorable Atlantic SSTs for -NAO and you also have this:
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We’ll see what happens by November and you’re right, guidance is notoriously way too fast with the demise of Nina’s and Nino’s
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Like you said, I very seriously doubt we go officially neutral/La Nada until April. At least in regions 3.4, 4 and possibly 3. I think we see a late November or early December peak with a slow rise out of moderate territory during the winter. I’m not buying the models showing a rapid rise after December, they have grossly underestimated this Niña event for the last 3 years
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The projected RNA/-PNA is probably real this time, gaining more support
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Yes, you are correct, the models have been wanting to tank the PNA to no avail the last 2 months, however, this time, it actually has support in the global circulation to do so.
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Reading comprehension isn’t your strong point. By November. If you actually took the time to look at the chart, the change begins towards the end of this month, we are already nearly at mid-October
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The overwhelming majority of the time it has been very positive since August, minus a few very few brief bouts of negative
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The signs for a possible pattern change by November are finally starting to show up. For the 1st time in months, the models are starting to breakdown the extremely persistent +PNA ridge that has been in place since August
