snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I tried warning people yesterday against using the Euro and the NAM, they made no sense given the setup but they chose to wishcast. The RGEM wins. How many times do ananfront snows actually work out here, in mid-March no less? I just got an inch and a half total snow. Especially when you have an arctic boundary cross the area, with NW flow behind it….the lee side downsloping dries everything right out like what we just saw with what fell apart from Pennsylvania….
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Storm is over up here in Sloatsburg, sun breaking out, snow ended a half hour ago, prob got an inch and a half, total, roads are black. I’m outside in short sleeves right now doing an Irish square dance
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The RGEM will be the closet to reality IMO. Think of how many times rain to snow/anafront type scenarios actually workout here….especially during the day in mid-March, with all the obstacles that come along with that. I think we are also going to see downsloping issues with the NW flow drying things out after the arctic boundary passes
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Yea, you’re not seeing that much snow…
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NYC will be lucky to see half of an inch total tomorrow, most likely a coating/dusting tomorrow afternoon
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Funny how you’re spiking the football already, 24 hours out, it’s going to be funny tomorrow when you get less than an inch to total in NYC lol Watch the models back way off at 0Z tonight. The RGEM and CMC are the closest to reality IMO
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The new GFS looks like the NAM and RGEM. The ICON is similar for the metro area as well. We seem to be closing in on consensus: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022031018&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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The new NAM https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022031018&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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All of the models look like the Euro and NAM? You are so vapid….
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You turn every L on the map from October until April into an NYC snowstorm, take a seat. And enjoy tomorrow’s NW trend ;-)
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Gulf origin storm, amps, no NAO/AO blocking, no 50/50, thunderstorms blowing up in the SE, this is going to correct northwest. The models are underestimating the SE ridge right now
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And the op Euro would be all on its own…sell
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Looks like extended warmth kicks in starting Monday
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It’s time to start thinking about sunshine and spring and long days and daylight savings time and flowers and warm weather and ice cream and pools and swimming, lightning bugs, crickets, peepers, BBQs, chillen outside with friends…you know…all the normal stuff most sane people look forward to at this time of year…..9 months from now or so, we can talk about the arctic tundra that MJO812 thinks exists in the NYC metro area lol
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100%, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low, +AO, shortwave amps, it’s pretty much guaranteed to come northwest. Also, once you get the big thunderstorm blowups in the SE, the latent heat release aloft is going to really pump the SE ridge big time…..
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34 degrees in Sloatsburg, half an inch on grass and car tops. Roads are all black, melting in contact. Very light snow at the moment from some moderate bursts before
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NWS Upton just updated minutes ago….1-3 inches total for Rockland, advisories issued only for Orange County and western Passaic County, nothing for Rockland, Bergen, Westchester or NYC/LI
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Those snow maps are way overdone. You aren’t seeing those totals tomorrow with that setup
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Yep. The op Euro is out to lunch with that one the EPS doesn’t even agree with its own operational, huge red flag right there. That solution makes zero sense, the shortwave amps, no 50/50 low, no -NAO block, +AO, there is nothing to stop it from cutting/inland running. The CMC and as it pains me to say it, the GFS are much closer to reality. The UKMET and ICON are also nothing at all like the op Euro
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Using 10:1 ratio maps and Kuchera maps is a very bad idea with this one the ratios are going to be very low
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For once we agree. Lol at the 10:1 ratio maps flying on twitter, that’s a total joke, not happening. Ratios are going to be poor/low, very marginal temps, daytime, 2nd week of March, lack of heavy rates, take the under. This is white rain for the vast majority of the NYC metro area
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Extremely marginal airmass, occurs during the day, 2nd week of March, light to marginal rates, very low ratios, those 10:1 ratio maps are junk, take the under…..
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Yet another cold fail from the long range models….
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White rain at best
