snowman19

It’s time to start thinking about sunshine and spring and long days and daylight savings time and flowers and warm weather and ice cream and pools and swimming, lightning bugs, crickets, peepers, BBQs, chillen outside with friends…you know…all the normal stuff most sane people look forward to at this time of year…..9 months from now or so, we can talk about the arctic tundra that MJO812 thinks exists in the NYC metro area lol

100%, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low, +AO, shortwave amps, it’s pretty much guaranteed to come northwest. Also, once you get the big thunderstorm blowups in the SE, the latent heat release aloft is going to really pump the SE ridge big time…..

34 degrees in Sloatsburg, half an inch on grass and car tops. Roads are all black, melting in contact. Very light snow at the moment from some moderate bursts before

NWS Upton just updated minutes ago….1-3 inches total for Rockland, advisories issued only for Orange County and western Passaic County, nothing for Rockland, Bergen, Westchester or NYC/LI

Those snow maps are way overdone. You aren’t seeing those totals tomorrow with that setup

Yep. The op Euro is out to lunch with that one the EPS doesn’t even agree with its own operational, huge red flag right there. That solution makes zero sense, the shortwave amps, no 50/50 low, no -NAO block, +AO, there is nothing to stop it from cutting/inland running. The CMC and as it pains me to say it, the GFS are much closer to reality. The UKMET and ICON are also nothing at all like the op Euro

Using 10:1 ratio maps and Kuchera maps is a very bad idea with this one the ratios are going to be very low

For once we agree. Lol at the 10:1 ratio maps flying on twitter, that’s a total joke, not happening. Ratios are going to be poor/low, very marginal temps, daytime, 2nd week of March, lack of heavy rates, take the under. This is white rain for the vast majority of the NYC metro area

Extremely marginal airmass, occurs during the day, 2nd week of March, light to marginal rates, very low ratios, those 10:1 ratio maps are junk, take the under…..

Yet another cold fail from the long range models….

White rain at best

Either way it’s officially over on 3/20, the equinox will not be denied :-)

I have to go back and look

And the models have backed way off the “extreme cold” and snow pattern for the east that was being hyped for mid-month. As we draw closer in time, they are correcting much stronger with the SE ridge after being way too aggressive with squashing it in the long range

Well, well, well…..and the CMC starts its fold….total snowfall for the next 10 days: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030600&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Yes, looks crippling over the next 10 days on the most severely cold biased, inaccurate model we have: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030518&fh=246&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

The CMC is now in a universe all to its own for Wednesday, none of the other models (Euro, GFS, UKMET, ICON) have it

Doorman, of course is using the severely cold biased GFS, the worst scoring model there is. Has been abysmal all winter long. This is the same guy who insisted we were getting a major snowstorm with the last event and we didn’t see so much as a flake even up here in Rockland. He insisted it was going to be a big snow event right up until it started when it was blatantly obvious it was way too warm in the midlevels, it started and ended as all sleet

BTW, good call on doubting the staying power of that cold shot next weekend. Also looks like that cold shot moderates and may not be as cold as what was being shown by the models back on Mon/Tues. By 3/16 we are into another warm pattern, looks like the SE ridge pumps right back up due to lack of a -NAO and the AK ridge retrogrades to the Bering Sea

The cold doesn’t last lol it’s in and out….SE ridge and AK ridge retrograde FTW lol Dee dee dee

It’s only ok when you post it because it shows snow huh?

We have seen this time and again in +NAO patterns…the models grossly underestimate the SE ridge in the long range, only to correct much stronger as we draw closer. If we get to 3/15 without any significant snow, the likelihood of getting a major snow event in the NYC metro after that date is very slim. I mentioned it last night, but if you go back to 1979, you can see how rare NYC snowstorms after 3/15 actually are, the numbers are extremely low when you add them all up over the last 43 years….

The pattern shown on the operational models through 3/15 demonstrates the importance of having -NAO block in place….when you don’t, you get this as a result: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030406&fh=264&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Go back to 1979 and count all the major NYC snowstorms that occurred after 3/15 over that 43 year period, shouldn’t take you long at all. This is why I’m at a loss when I look at all these “great snow pattern coming mid-month (3/15) and beyond”….maybe central and northern New England score? Even among those freak/fluke, anomalous big NYC snowstorms post 3/15 over the last 43 years, almost every single one of them had solid -NAO blocking, which isn’t happening this time around. Not sure what the hype and excitement is about, despite what JB and his followers are saying on twitter

How did the last major “snowstorm” (or should I say sleet storm) you predicted work out for you?