snowman19

It doesn’t look colder in the midlevels, they are torched, that’s why it barely has any snow at all south of I-84

Agreed here. The GFS is still the cold outlier. That model is just a really horrible anymore. None of the other models, RGEM, CMC, NAM, UKMET, ICON, Euro/EPS look anything like it. There’s a reason why it’s ranked at #4

His wishes, hopes and prayers. I don’t know why he’s persistently trying to wishcast this into a NYC metro area snowstorm. It’s not happening

Look at the soundings, that is definitely not snow south of I-84, it’s sleet at best with that midlevel warm nose and almost all of the time those warm noses are badly underestimated not overdone by the models

There’s virtually no snow at all on that south of I-84. The midlevels are completely torched and fast. The midlevel low tracks are awful

That’s not how it works

Once you get to 3/15, it takes a completely anomalous, fluke event to get a major snowstorm in the metro area, can a freak major event happen? Yes, but you will really be fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. By the time you get to late March, you have an August sun overhead

When you have no -NAO block, these setups trend more north and warmer in the midlevels as you get up to the event. The models usually grossly underestimate the midlevel warm punch in these setups until right before it starts and even then they can miss it. This is a classic I-84 and north snow event….there will likely be very little snow south of I-84

The GFS should have this storm figured out sometime Saturday afternoon, once again, it’s a huge outlier at 12z, that model is laughably horrible

Agreed. This has I-84 snow special written all over it. No -NAO block and it’s just going to continue to trend north as we get closer. I don’t see much of a front end thump either, there is going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch….which the models almost always underestimate badly. I really don’t think there’s going to be much snow south of I-84. And as far as the GFS goes, it’s pathetic. It’s been abysmal to the point of comedy for months now

Looks like I’ll be in shorts and short sleeves again….

The GFS has decided that it’s going to be Casey Jones and go down with the runaway train. No other model shows anything close to what it’s doing for Friday

The Euro completely torches the midlevels before the precip even starts

100% The GFS is in a world all to its own. When no other models show what it is showing, something is wrong. In that setup, it’s only going to trend more north as we get closer

34 degrees in Sloatsburg mod to occasional heavy snow in this squall at times. Gusty winds. Nothing sticking to any roads. Daylight and sun angle doing its trick

You haven’t a clue

The GFS is an big outlier, none of the other models (Euro/EPS, CMC, Ukie, ICON) are showing anything close to this for the NYC metro area

Yea, let’s use the most inaccurate snowmap available that counts sleet as snow….

I don’t know. We went from torch to cold to this in a week

Because the GEFS have a robust MJO wave moving into phase 5 around 3/4-3/5. EPS has the MJO in the COD

The winds are insane up in Rockland right now very high gusts

You are the worst poster here, hands down. You haven’t a clue what you’re talking about

@AllsnowCall me crazy but I think the models may be too aggressive/overdone with the EPO/PNA pump for early March, we have seen this many times in the past few winters. Then they correct weaker or even lose it as we get closer in time….I don’t think they lose it but I can certainly see them correct weaker. There is also a very real possibility that the gradient sets up to our north and we end up on the wrong/warm side of it, some of the operational runs in all 3 major globals have shown this possibility

That’s just one example of the pathetic wishcasting going on right now…saying it’s going to be deep winter going into April. That aside, saying the models look like March, 2018 is the biggest joke I’ve ever seen in my entire life, like I would expect either A - JB to say that or B - An east coast weenie who is tripping on acid to say that…2018 had a severe -AO and west-based -NAO/Greenland block resulting from a record SSW event…that isn’t happening this year, like not even in the land of make believe happening this year lol

Lmfaooo @ the ignorant weenies on twitter right now saying the long range models look like March, 2018 and that we are going to be telling our grandkids about this upcoming pattern and how it produces snow into April. Nothing is better than a wishcasting weenie who has no clue whatsoever what they’re talking about…I haven’t had a laugh this good in a really long time lol Here is just one example of many of the complete ignorance and utter clueless stupidity going on right now…”it’s going to snow into April” lol: