snowman19

It’s cold but it’s not unmodified arctic, the boundary layer is going to warm rather quickly when the winds flip. This is starting to look like a 1-3 event for the metro area

This setup is absolutely nothing at all like November, 2018

Not all rain but it is going to turn to rain across the entire metro area after the initial snow/sleet push. Every model has this going to all rain. Once again, we are posting grossly overdone 10:1 ratio snowmaps that count sleet and freezing rain as snow. Those pretty maps aren’t going to verify. When you have a primary parent low over Lake Ontario, you get a strong mid-level warm push, which models always underestimate until the last minute, we’ve seen this over and over again

It turns to rain on the GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020011312&fh=138

The area NWS Albany covers is not part of this subforum

Upton is not buying snow for Saturday, no CAD evident, new disco: Temperatures will be remaining above normal through Thursday, then return to more normal levels Thursday night into Sunday as Arctic high pressure builds toward the region. Any precipitation with the waves will be mainly in the form of rain. For the system next weekend there is some uncertainty as to how long a period of light snow will occur before a transition to all rain Saturday afternoon. This will be dependent on how quickly the cold air is scoured out as high pressure moves east. At this time there is no cold air damming evident and the flow does remain progressive. Also there is uncertainty with temperature profiles with the ECMWF warmer than the GFS. With these uncertainties will keep the probabilities at chance.

Saturday never was/is a snowstorm setup south of New England. When the GFS is the only model showing a snowstorm, something is wrong.....

Next weekend’s setup sucks south of New England still, don’t worry, the NYC metro area will get their chance post 1/20, be patient

The cold biased op GFS at day 7, what could possibly go wrong??.....

There wouldn’t be a worse scenario, if we go back into 4/5 in early-mid February, it’ll be time to start thinking about next winter

If it actually does that you can kiss most of February goodbye

I can’t disagree with you here really. I think the models may be rushing it a bit and overdoing the cold and blocking at the beginning to an extent but yes, I think when we look back at this winter, the period from 2/1 - 3/20 will be a lot more memorable for winter weather than 12/1 - 1/31

That was actually a very memorable call by JB. He was one of the lone voices saying winter was over by February at this time back in 2011. No one believed him, they kept saying the high latitude blocking was coming right back. He ended up being dead right, the Niña became very west-based, the NAM (AO, NAO) went super positive and that was all she wrote for that winter by the beginning of February, right through the end of March, goodbye snow, goodbye cold and it never came back again

Based on how the pattern has been progressing since November, just my opinion, I have a hard time believing that we lock in a real cold, blocked up pattern for 6 weeks straight (2/1 - 3/15). Could I be wrong? Yep and stranger things have happened but I definitely would not bet on such a scenario happening given where we just came from

Looks like I was too slow with my thoughts on the colder regime. Post 1/20 looks good for colder and yea, assuming the models are correct and the MJO propagates into phase 8 come 2/1 or thereabouts, I think the question then becomes is this a “locked in” (all of February to mid-March 40+ day) change to colder and blocked or is it back to a mild regime, a la the Euro weeklies?

If it does get colder on 1/20, that doesn’t cancel out the previous 3 weeks of warmth for this month. The last week of January won’t salvage this month lol

Yea, I was confused as to why it was being called a good pattern. It’s strong -PNA/RNA, +AO, +NAO, neutral EPO

It would appear the people who said the the models were too quick with the change to colder yesterday, were correct, they have backed down from what they were showing yesterday. Looks like a slower, post 1/21 change now..

I honestly have not seen anyone deny that January is a total lost cause. I think everyone has conceded. I agree that the change comes in February, assuming the propagation into 7, 8, 1 really happens at the beginning of February. Question is, is this a sustained cold change into mid-March or is it a quick hit of colder, then back to warmer than normal? I don’t think that can be answered definitively until we get into early February

Assuming it finally does actually propagate and goes 8-1 in early February, the change probably would not be felt here until mid-February with the lag correct? I’m thinking the colder period is something like 2/15 - 3/15

It looks like a change to colder isn’t coming until early to mid February, the question then becomes, is it a sustained (through mid-March) period of colder or is it in and out? I’m favoring mid-February, I can see a period of colder, something like 2/15 - 3/15. Once you get past 3/15, deep winter goes on life support south of New England

It has less than half an inch of snow total: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020010606&fh=84 And the NAM did not come west, this is bad info: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020010606&fh=84

The extreme warmth back in March, 2012 was unreal. I remember having to put on my air conditioner a couple days after St. Patrick’s Day, temps were well into the 80’s

The models have been shockingly horrible so far this winter, the NAM most recently with the two outlier runs in a row, the Euro has been exceptionally awful

It’s becoming clear that any large scale long wave pattern change is going to have to wait until early-mid February