snowman19

And? That only goes to mid-month the warmup in question starts mid month…..

If this is correct, there will be a record breaking strong SPV come the end of this month. This is the reason for the severely positive NAM period coming up, ++NAO, ++AO. Also looks like the IO forcing/MJO ph 3-4 in the long term is real, which is going to force a big change in the PAC, the EPS is nose diving the PNA and losing the -EPO

Agree 100%, it’s a non threat….horrible, mild boundary layer airmass, very fast flow, positively tilted junk

Not once did I say torch. Nowhere in my post was the word torch used….unless “mild” is the new synonym for “torch”

Where did I say torch? It is going to get mild after mid-month. Not once did I say torch

Everyone buckle up for deep winter, late February and March. Just read JB declared winter is dead in 3 weeks, said the MJO is going into phase 4 and it’s all over. This means a March, 2018 redux is coming…..

Very good ensemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) agreement now of a mid-month pattern change to mild. The new weeklies have ++AO/++NAO going right into March

39 and raining in Sloatsburg

By mid-month the +PNA is gone, that’s a flat GOA ridge not +PNA and the cold is dumping into the west, Rockies and Plains/central CONUS

Nothing cool about that look lol but nah, not yet, after mid-month, then I probably will lol ;-)

Severely positive NAM/++NAO, ++AO, there will be nothing to stop a SE ridge pump

Right, just like you said late November and December was going to be very cold and snowy

Pretty clear trends on the new ensemble guidance tonight that a mild pattern starts to set in during mid-month

The new CPC outlook completely disagrees that the current pattern continues into mid and late month:

Rockland, Orange, Bergen, Passaic, and Westchester will be under a WWA by tomorrow afternoon I would think

What’s bad about a freezing rain storm? Knocking your power out for days in sub freezing temps, no heat, then your water pipes freeze, burst and destroy your house?

Out of curiosity why do you think it’s nice to get freezing rain and sleet? Serious question

Freezing rain and sleet. This isn’t turning into a NYC snowstorm

The GFS is a huge outlier, not even going to bother talking about the UKMET, which is a really horrible model and its “snow” maps are severely overdone and totally inaccurate, it’s not snow, it’s showing sleet as snow. That aside, the ICON, CMC, Euro, EPS, RGEM, NAM all do not have this as a snow event. All their outputs show zero snow in the metro area and have it completely as a sleet and freezing rain event mainly north and west of NYC

The Ukie is absolutely horrible. It did the worst out of every model with the last storm by far even right up to game time, run after run it wasn’t even close

Yes, a complete anomalous/fluke event can certainly happen, sure, but definitely not the norm and any snowfall in late March/April is gone the next day at our latitude

No, it started by mid-February

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy

The op bumped well north because the last solution was completely asinine. The Euro is nothing even close to what it used to be, it’s just another run of the mill at best model anymore….

That isn’t snow…that’s a 10:1 ratio “snowmap” counting sleet as snow. It’s grossly overdone and very inaccurate…like not even close and the Ukie is a God awful, horrible model. It busted so bad on this last storm it wasn’t even funny….