snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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FWIW the new CANSIPS has a cold Dec then goes -PNA/SE ridge for Jan and Feb
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The final calculations won’t be done for a few more days, but I just read on Twitter that it’s probably going to be very low
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@40/70 BenchmarkAny idea how Siberian/Eurasian snowcover will end up for October? The Canadian snowcover buildup doesn’t look that impressive for the 1st day of November:
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I agree. When doesn’t any ENSO event not die during the winter? Every Niña or Nino normally peaks between October and December then fades out during the winter. That’s 100% a normal progression. And yes there is a lag whether certain people want to admit it or not
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It’s literally the same exact forecast year after year from DT…he always says whatever ENSO event (Niña/Nino) we are in is going to die very quickly, it won’t matter by mid-winter and it’s going to be cold and snowy on the east coast. He’s predicted the last 5 winters in a row to be cold and snowy with blocking
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My point was that as soon as some people see a -EPO they automatically assume a huge full latitude trough and arctic cold dump into the east. That graphic showed that’s not always the case
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Another Twitter myth debunked, “-EPO = cold in the east”…..nah, not really:
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Yes. I never believed the whole snowcover theory either. It’s just funny how certain things only get hyped to no end on Twitter when perceived “favorable” then when they are not, crickets
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And just like that all the hype on Twitter about Eurasian snowcover, recurving super typhoons and GOA/western North America warm blobs stopped:
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We are about to say goodbye to the warmer GOA and NA west coast SSTs
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The blocking started breaking down around mid-January and by the last week of the month, that winter was over
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Actually for New England, you can get away with Maritime Continent forcing, I mean when isn’t New England not in the game for winter weather? Eastern IO forcing? Game over. But I would not want to live anywhere south of New England come January if the forcing is over the Maritime Continent
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Yes, there is mounting evidence that late November and December are cold, i.e. a true front-loaded canonical La Niña, typical with Maritime Continent forcing. However, Maritime Continent forcing works well until you get into the end of December and January/February with the wavelength change, then it’s torch city
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If anyone puts stock in this index, pray for a miracle the next 8 days, nothing has changed since 10/19:
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IMO we are probably 5 or 6 weeks away from the peak of this Niña event. Thanksgiving week give or take would be my guess
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His profile says he’s a “winter weather expert”
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Yea, that severe decades long -PDO back then really ruined east coast winters right? You know some of the coldest and snowiest winters on record lol These guys really need to stop listening to Joe Bastardi. MJO812 literally screenshotted JB’s SST graphic on his recent tweet to prove his east coast cold and snow obsession
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Looks like yet another official La Niña winter. The latest updated plumes don’t have it dissipating to neutral until March/April now, the previous runs rushed it as was expected:
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I guess people forget the 1960’s and 1970’s when the PDO was severely negative
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Bye Felicia
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