snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Despite some people saying to ignore the La Niña and that “other drivers will determine this winter’s pattern” La Niña is definitely going to make her presence felt:
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Yes. I saw someone mention that possibility on twitter, I forget who it was, but they mentioned a possible -WPO/poleward Aleutian ridge developing in December in response to the Niña forcing
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That is why I don’t understand the proclamations that SE ridging isn’t going to happen. With eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing, it’s going to rear its ugly head
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That guy is a total joke. He posts and hypes the 384 hour operational GFS and the 700 hour CFS. Worse than JB and Henry Margusity. The pro mets rip him apart on twitter
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These are some good points on how the MJO progressions/tropical forcing may go this winter:
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Wouldn’t a -EPO, -PNA/RNA, +NAO work for New England in December? I know south of there would probably have issues
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It looks like a strong -EPO/+TNH pattern sets up mid-late month and probably into early December….question is does it have staying power beyond the beginning of December? It may depend on the MJO progression….
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The GFS is way too far east/south as usual. Jesus what a God awful model that thing is
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The models are getting stronger with the tropical system and the phasing with the Great Lakes shortwave coming across. I have a feeling this is going to turn into a really big event next Saturday. Possible high wind and heavy rain impact
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Hard to believe it’s a week into November and we are tracking a tropical cyclone event possibly impacting our area lol
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There is no narrative. If the new Euro seasonal is correct, anywhere south of New England is done, finished, say goodnight and goodbye. That is fact, not opinion, not a troll, not a guess
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It looks bad if you are south of New England. New England is always in the game for winter wx no matter what
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Do you know how to read that map?
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Here is the new Euro seasonal:
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I know you don’t put much stock into models and neither do I, but the new Euro seasonal is really ugly for Jan and Feb, the real “winter” month may be December like you have been suggesting (i.e. 2000/20001):
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@40/70 Benchmark
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If we do in fact get near or actually hit 80 or over on Monday, that’s probably the last time until March at least….
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Good call on the basin wide moderate La Niña. I never bought strong but I did think a higher end moderate Niña was possible, didn’t happen
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In a “typical” canonical La Niña, February is the warmest month with forcing over the Maritime Continent/IO. Mid-late January usually starts the warmer pattern. March is really a toss up in Nina’s, some warm, some cold
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I don’t believe anything, simply stating what that particular model run showed lol
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FWIW the new CANSIPS goes with a cold December then RNA/SE ridge, game over for everyone south of New England come January
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FWIW the new CANSIPS has a cold Dec then goes -PNA/SE ridge for Jan and Feb
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The final calculations won’t be done for a few more days, but I just read on Twitter that it’s probably going to be very low
