snowman19
-
Posts
7,513 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by snowman19
-
A +PNA ridge doesn’t help you with a very strong PAC jet crashing into it, it gets blown apart as fast as it forms, see last winter. If that’s going to be the case again, the Atlantic and arctic sides need to cooperate and compensate for what’s happening on the Pacific side with very strong blocks (west-based -NAO Greenland block and -AO) or you’re dead in the water again since our weather comes in from the west
-
Yep. That was the problem last winter. Everytime a +PNA ridge formed, the raging fast PAC jet slammed into it and knocked it right down. When the PAC side sucks, in the absence of a very strong Atlantic/west-based -NAO “Greenland block” (and you’d also want a strong arctic -AO/-NAM along with it as well), the PAC rules the day, since our weather moves west to east. The PAC will always overrule the Atlantic and arctic in the absence of a very strong block/blocks
-
He’s trying to say the Euro is trending towards the op GFS at day 10 if you could believe it. And he wonders why he’s called a weenie....
-
Because the GFS is so accurate at Day 10. It flip flops like pancakes at IHOP. By far the most horrible model out there
-
Imagine if the GFS was actually a good model? Lol Snow88 will believe the op GFS though, “It showed it for many runs” lol
-
How was your white rain this morning? Lol
-
The antecedent airmass isn’t all that very cold, we’re not talking unmodified arctic air. It all depends on a strong 50/50 low staying in place, acting as a block to lock the confluence and cold high in place. Otherwise the high just moves east, return flow, goodbye cold and it just cuts into the lakes as a rainstorm, a la this coming weekend
-
The 1-2 inch snowmaps which count sleet as snow only showing that much are a dead giveaway. You are not getting 10:1 ratios, more like 8:1 or most likely lower, when you factor that in, plus the boundary layer temps which are going to suck, you are getting less than an inch. You were well in the 50’s all day today, even far NW of the city, wet roads, wet ground, going to be a lot of disappointments tomorrow...
-
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121018&fh=16 New Hi Res GFS is barely anything either
-
That’s the only way to get Tues/Wed to work next week in this pattern, the 50/50 low needs to be strong and hold. If not, next week turns into a repeat of this upcoming weekend
-
The last 5 runs of the op Euro and EPS have gotten drier and drier
-
Yea pretty much only Snow88 and NYCWeatherNow thought this weekend was going to be a snowstorm
-
Using 10:1 ratio snowmaps for Wednesday is ludicrous. The ratios are going to be lower than that, Bluewave explained in detail why before, to say they won’t be is wishcasting. Plus those maps count sleet as snow
-
This is far from a “crushing” NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120812&fh=84
-
Exactly! And you aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios, they are going to be lower than that
-
Once again, stop using the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, grossly, horribly inaccurate. Remember the last storm when people kept posting that the city was getting 6 inches of snow and it got one inch? That was thanks to using the 10:1 ratio maps. Here is the accurate one, compare: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120806&fh=90
-
Over the last 15 years, I wonder how many anafronts have actually produced?
-
Central Park saw a whopping 1.5 inches of snow out of it
-
https://mobile.twitter.com/WXRISKCOM/status/1202484903415291904
-
You beat me to it, so far the HRRR seems to be the most accurate. It did very well with yesterday’s non event on the front end
-
Here’s the more accurate depiction of what the 0Z NAM shows; 12 K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36 3K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36
-
You aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios tomorrow, they are so inaccurate, it’s not even funny
-
Those 0Z 10:1 12K and 3K NAM snowmaps are very, very badly overdone, not even close, like not even in the ball park. Go to the positive snow depth change maps and compare. The difference is astounding
-
New NAM total for storm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019113012&fh=84
-
There is a lot of sleet counted as snow in that
