snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The fact that the GFS is showing an inland runner is a red flag IMO. At this range you want the GFS being a complete miss to the east given it’s progressive/suppressed bias because you know it’s only going to correct further and further west as we get closer in time. Normally if there’s going to be an east coast snowstorm, at this point in time before the event, the GFS is a whiff while all the other models show something hitting
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I was referring to NYC where MJO812 is from
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Shrooms
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There is no guarantee of anything with the SPV, @coastalwx is right it’s voodoo and even if a SSW happens there’s no guarantee what it does
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No blocking
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Looks like it’s going to continue to affect the pattern into March. It doesn’t want to give up
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Just keep in mind that those RMM plots are very noisy
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The whim of a moderator in the playground NYC forum with a grudge and very weird obsession with me, I think he has a basement setup like the one from The Silence Of The Lambs
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Another rainstorm for NYC, that’s not a snowstorm pattern. Stop believing twitter, they’ve been wrong all winter
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The same crew that has been wishcasting snowstorms since November for DC/BAL/PHL/NYC is trying to wishcast next weekend into a another snowstorm for them. You’d think after being wrong over and over for the last 4 months they’d get embarrassed, humble and stop but nope. The hype machine is still in full effect
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For who?
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I get it you hate me. Everytime I post you jump all over me and try to embarrass me. You win, not worth it anymore. I’m done. Not posting in here again. You finally bullied and harassed me away. Not worth the headache anymore, this has been a tit for tat game for years
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Do you not see the WWA for 2-3 inches of snow for Rockland??? These models don’t even have an inch
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ICON: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2023012506&fh=21 3k NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012506&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= HRRR: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023012509&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012506&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Today is going to bust IMO. The new 3K NAM, RGEM, HRRR and ICON all have a total non event
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NAM = Trash
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View anything the NAM shows with extreme skepticism. It did an absolutely horrendous job Monday, the HRRR and RGEM did the best
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The new HRRR basically starts it as rain from Rockland/Bergen/Westchester south
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I’m sure they have their reasons. No models are showing Rockland getting 2-3 inches, not one. The Euro, which is the snowy outlier is the only one showing anything close to that if you use 10:1 ratios, which tomorrow won’t be, the Kuchera is much less. Everything else (12K/3K NAM, RGEM, GFS, HRDPS, CMC, HRRR, ICON, UKMET, FV3, HREF) don’t show that kind of accumulation
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NAM caved to the RGEM
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The NAM sucks. It completely busted yesterday. The 3K NAM barely has anything at all in Rockland, nothing south of there
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The Euro must be running late
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The 3K NAM has less than an inch for Rockland, nothing south of there. Ditto for the Ukie. This one is probably DOA. We may start as rain tomorrow.
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I doubt we score in the 2/1-2/7 time frame. No -NAO or 50/50 low. I think whatever happens is an inland runner. This winter is on life support
