snowman19

I’m not so sure this Niña is basin-wide

Lol I think we can rest assured we won’t see a record RNA like last December. The EPS seasonal depiction is showing an east-based -NAO which would probably be beneficial to interior central and northern New England. I think areas near the coast are going to have problems early on in the season with the bathwater just off shore

The new EPS seasonal for December is showing why you need a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) to get cold into the pattern. At face value, it’s showing a flat Aleutian high and it allows PAC air to flood the pattern:

Some good articles Eric linked to if anyone would like to read up on this:

I would put the chances of a 13-14 or 14-15 style +PNA/-EPO on roids winter at very, very low and extremely unlikely, those winters were driven by ++PDO. Despite what I’m seeing from some of the twitterologists, besides this year having super low Atlantic ACE, it is nothing at all like 13-14, like not even in the ballpark of that year

We shall see. I think this is going to be an Aleutian Ridge/High dependent winter, I expect that to be the biggest main feature given the Nina, question is, is it flat or poleward (-WPO)? You want as much -WPO as possible to keep Canada from getting overrun by PAC maritime air, so when you get blocking it can pull some arctic down

While I don’t think 97-98, 01-02, 11-12 or 19-20 are walking through the door, IMO the preliminary indicators right now are not encouraging for any sustained Atlantic or arctic (-AO, -NAO) blocking nor are they for any sustained PAC (+PNA, -EPO) blocking. I also think this La Niña is being underestimated by some, it is very well coupled (MEI) and it will definitely make its presence felt. As I’ve said before, while I doubt strong, I can easily see a high-end moderate ONI peak

I don’t think anyone in this forum implied that, in fact if you look at the total shut out winters, they were either super El Niño or neutral/La Nada following a Niña the previous winter

I don’t think it goes strong ONI as I have already said. However, high-end moderate/borderline strong is absolutely possible

These SSTs off the east coast of North America are insane, hot tub water. They are only going to serve to positively feedback into and strengthen the WAR/SE ridge:

I don’t follow his logic, if it caused the stratosphere to cool during winter in the Southern Hemisphere, why would it cause the stratosphere in the northern hemisphere to warm? The stratosphere is the stratosphere and water vapor in the stratosphere has been scientifically proven to cool it, doesn’t matter if it’s south of north of the equator. Water vapor from the eruption has already infiltrated the northern hemisphere. He’s also talking about SSWEs, I was honestly confused by that article. Is the author a meteorologist?

The little respect I still had left for JB was lost back in the fall of 2015 when he was trying to hype the super El Niño into a “west-based” super El Niño and was still arguing that it was going to be a cold and snowy winter for the east coast. He had 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”. He made himself into a total damned fool and so did Judah Cohen who was calling for a very cold/snowy winter because of Siberian snowcover (SAI) that October despite Nino region 3.4 hitting an all time record of +3.1C at the end of November

@40/70 Benchmarkand anyone else interested, here is research regarding +QBO/Niña years: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022JD036691

The high solar flux continues:

Thank you. I’m actually surprised this event is so robust….normally the 3rd Niña in a “triple dip” event is the weakest….that is not the case this year, the MEI is also indicating a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) Niña :

How many low Atlantic ACE/La Niña/volcanic years did you find? Also, what was the QBO, IOD, solar and PDO doing in those years? Thank you

According to this link HM shared, the record amount of water vapor ejected into the stratosphere should cool it and warm the troposphere below: Link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381?campaign=woletoc

I doubt a strong ONI peak too but I think a high-end moderate/borderline strong peak is absolutely possible over the next 4 months given the current trends

No semblance of a tripole nor has there been

Even if you remove the Niña, the other factors are still no good. We have to see where we are at come November. I’d be interested to see what Isotherm says

Still waiting for the super extreme hyper Atlantic hurricane season that JB has been hyping and wishcasting since April…..and still is. Good lord how does anyone still take that guy seriously. He is the worst of the worst

It could very well be AGW related. So far, everything (solar/geomag, Atlantic SSTs, QBO progression, Nina structure) is pointing to another +NAO winter. Maybe we see some sort of flip next winter? Overall, 1979-1993 had an amazingly persistent +NAO

More and more evidence is mounting for a very positive AO winter. This eruption/historic ejection of water vapor is just going to serve to significantly cool all levels of the stratosphere and in turn strengthen the SPV