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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Also, looks like the AO is going positive, the SSW did not workout as planned. From Dr. Butler:
  2. snowman19
    The MJO going into phases 7 and 8 might not be what people think it is when there’s a weak stratospheric polar vortex like we have. Check this out:
  3. snowman19
    HM just pointed it out but the real problem has been the raging ++WPO all winter long. It’s the reason the PAC jet has been an unrelenting firehose
  4. snowman19
    You also notice the extreme -NAO bias it has had in the long range all winter? It keeps showing phantom -NAO’s that never advance forward in time. It’s done a terrible job on the Atlantic side. We haven’t been able to buy a -NAO block
  5. snowman19
    We’ve seen this show before a bunch of times this winter from the EPS, it’s one run so far. Let’s see if it actually holds or not this time and advances forward. I’m not holding my breath
  6. snowman19
    The FV3 sucks, horrible model. It’s honestly worse than the old GFS. And that map counts sleet and freezing rain as snow
  7. snowman19
    The CanSIPS may not have been so crazy. The model runs last night are ugly right past mid February
  8. snowman19
    The new CANSIPS has a huge RNA/-PNA pattern for February
  9. snowman19
    Some people had basically guaranteed we would be in MJO phase 8, cold and snowy the 1st 2 weeks of February and look at what happened
  10. snowman19
    We’ll see what happens post 2/15 but up to that point it does not look good
  11. snowman19
    The new ensembles are ugly right into mid month
  12. snowman19
    The ever elusive “MJO phase 8” and “Euro weeklies” for the last 2+ months. They’re both like Clark Kent and Superman, one on a model forecast and one in reality, they’re never seen together...
  13. snowman19
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnow_ferrier&runtime=2019013012&fh=15 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019013012&fh=15
  14. snowman19
    Downsloping effects off the Apps? The new HRRR, NAM 3K, 12K and RGEM are all unimpressive
  15. snowman19
    Thank you. Yea, this winter going into February, definitely ranks right up there with 94-95, 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 for NYC’s worst in the last 25 years
  16. snowman19
    Are there any other years where NYC went from mid November into early February with an inch or under of snow? I honestly can’t find one. Today definitely isn’t promising on the HRRR, NAM or RGEM
  17. snowman19
    Yep, sure. You condescendingly degraded posters as usual for suggesting this breakdown was even coming at all, arrogantly, as you always do, as if you control the weather and tell it what to do. Then when the news is bad you disappear, then reappear to lecture people. And the cold is lasting less than 5 days. It’s going bye bye come Saturday. MJO phase 8, how long have we heard that battle cry now? 3 weeks. It’s coming, it’s coming. So is met spring in 4 weeks from now
  18. snowman19
    No, no I actually didn’t. But you on the other hand have been calling for cold and snowstorms since the end of November.
  19. snowman19
    Oooops. I told you the pattern was breaking right down but as always you condescendingly “opined” and degraded people. Karma
  20. snowman19
    Soon, JB is going to be Casey Jones
  21. snowman19
    We are entering a long term -AMO phase. -AMO is correlated with predominant +NAO. Opposite for +AMO. -AMO is also associated with fewer KU events overall
  22. snowman19
    As long as you have this raging PAC jet, it’s going to be a huge problem: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=npac&pkg=uv250&runtime=2019012706&fh=384
  23. snowman19
    I’ll believe the -NAO when it actually happens
  24. snowman19
    There are big problems beyond the 1st week of February too. Look at the strength of the PAC jet going into mid month. It’s absolutely raging, zonal and aimed directly at the CONUS
  25. snowman19
    Ummm that’s an anomaly above average map, so yea, they are wayyy above normal lmaooo
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