snowman19

Just heard there is severe icing in Warwick, Orange County, NY. Roads are supposedly a disaster

Same old song since late November….models grossly underestimating the -PNA until we get to the medium range. This is a good explanation of the upcoming pattern for early January:

Snowed here about half an inch, flurries now. It took awhile to saturate

Virga here too. There is a boundary layer dry punch. The HRRR is still showing nothing for accumulations

With the current -PNA/Aleutian ridge feedback pattern in place in the PAC, if the NAO/AO go positive, the SE ridge goes on roids and we will torch big time. The -NAO is the only reason you aren’t in short sleeves right now

This is not good. If correct, (not saying it is) we are in trouble:

The new HRRR has next to nothing now. It’s drying the whole precip shield out. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021122404&fh=16

Want to see a semi-permanent positive feedback loop in action? Here you go:

That’s the thing, I don’t think we break this feedback loop anytime soon, this is quite the self-sustaining system we have in place right now. IMO if you want to see a big shakeup, it would be a major SSW and there’s just no signs of that yet. In fact, it appears the SPV gets very strong the 1st week of January. I read the literature you spoke of and it’s definitely promising for a SSW, assuming we actually follow climo….but what is normal climo lately? Lol If we get into late January and we still have a strong SPV with no signs of a SSW and the same tropospheric feedback loop in place, it will not be good to say the least. Plenty for us to watch the next few weeks and good pickup on your part with those very warm waters in phase 7 helping to sustain the wave there. I’m sure you saw ENSO Region 4 is the coldest its been in many years, one of the coldest in over the last 40 years in fact….like you said it’s going to be very difficult for that MJO to propagate east, the cold waters are going to kill the T-storm activity:

If there was anything concerning, it’s this (SPV). IMO, this is definitely not what you want to see happen in January. Especially since the already in place synoptic tropospheric forcing/drivers are not going anywhere soon

I was looking at this earlier….that positive feedback loop is going to keep that -PNA/Aleutian ridge in place, it’s a self-sustaining process, definitely not good news, especially when you couple that with possible IO convection taking shape mid-January

@bluewaveEarly January starting to not look all that cold anymore, here’s the big part of the reason why, that Niña standing wave will not be denied this winter:

In the last 30 years, I think only 1 winter came close to a 0 snowfall total winter and that was 01-02, all the other duds still had notable snow events during the Dec-Mar time frame, which would include 97-98, 11-12, 19-20

Nice post. I know you warned about it before and have been very fair….but some people have to have to face the fact that the MJO may never makes it in to phase 8. I stated my reasoning for thinking it doesn’t a few times and you were very objective about it. You also don’t want to see IO convection start firing in mid-January, something some models are showing

The other issue is this:

No surprise there. The problem is the record PAC jet, severe -PNA and actually the -NAO block, it’s shearing everything to bits. This is going to continue unabated right through the 1st week of January, at the very least: Look how ridiculously dry The extended EPS is for the next 46 days:

RNA as far as the eye can see. And yea, it loses the -AO and also wants to lose the -NAO as well come mid-January. If that’s the case, we have a problem….

The very cold and snowy end of November and December forecasts for the east are about to go down in flames….might be one of the biggest busts of all time…..

Looks like the severe -PNA continues unabated right into early-mid January….

It is very likely the -NAO/-AO breaks down come mid-January. Also looking very likely that either the MJO dies or never makes it to phase 8. The SPV remains very strong. Also, looks like IO convection starts firing at this same time

Good luck with phase 8 lol God speed!!! The phase 8 wishcast shall live in infamy!!!!

The signals for the deep -PNA/RNA, full-latitude trough in the west this month were clear as day at the end of November, even just before Thanksgiving week, the problem is some decided to ignore those warnings. And there are more warnings for January….the models are steadfast on the tropical convective forcing moving to the IO by mid-January…..I’m sure these red flags will also be ignored by some as well….

Christmas week corrected warmer big time. Deep -PNA at work