snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The cave has begun…..
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I expect a full cave by the GEFS to the EPS, CFS, GEPS guidance:
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The CFS weeklies are also identical to the GEPS and EPS, the tropical convective forcing change and the -AAM drop supports this. You also have a record breaking strong SPV which is coupling going into late month. This time, the change is almost certainly real and this isn’t a week or 2 change, as depicted it is going to have staying power going into the beginning of March
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If something happens next week, that’s probably all she wrote for winter. The pattern turns into this right after and into March:
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Looks like the NAO is going severely positive, nothing to stop the SE ridge this time around
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There are specific parameters you have to look at other than simply “MJO phase 4 March”….MJO phase 4 La Niña March -GLAAM? Or MJO Phase 4 La Niña March +GLAAM? All that is very important and makes a big difference in the MJO composites
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Sure. Solar spring starts 2/8, meteorological spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts 3/20
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Solar spring starts Tuesday (2/8) and ends (5/8), it’s the time of the most rapid gain of sunlight of the year. Solar summer starts on 5/8
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The op Euro at day 9….what could possibly go wrong lmfaooo
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As maybe you and your hero JB will be one day. Hey, he declared that winter is over, dead in 3 weeks, do you not believe him?
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And? That only goes to mid-month the warmup in question starts mid month…..
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If this is correct, there will be a record breaking strong SPV come the end of this month. This is the reason for the severely positive NAM period coming up, ++NAO, ++AO. Also looks like the IO forcing/MJO ph 3-4 in the long term is real, which is going to force a big change in the PAC, the EPS is nose diving the PNA and losing the -EPO
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Agree 100%, it’s a non threat….horrible, mild boundary layer airmass, very fast flow, positively tilted junk
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Not once did I say torch. Nowhere in my post was the word torch used….unless “mild” is the new synonym for “torch”
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Where did I say torch? It is going to get mild after mid-month. Not once did I say torch
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Everyone buckle up for deep winter, late February and March. Just read JB declared winter is dead in 3 weeks, said the MJO is going into phase 4 and it’s all over. This means a March, 2018 redux is coming…..
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Very good ensemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) agreement now of a mid-month pattern change to mild. The new weeklies have ++AO/++NAO going right into March
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39 and raining in Sloatsburg
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By mid-month the +PNA is gone, that’s a flat GOA ridge not +PNA and the cold is dumping into the west, Rockies and Plains/central CONUS
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Nothing cool about that look lol but nah, not yet, after mid-month, then I probably will lol ;-)
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Severely positive NAM/++NAO, ++AO, there will be nothing to stop a SE ridge pump
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Right, just like you said late November and December was going to be very cold and snowy
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Pretty clear trends on the new ensemble guidance tonight that a mild pattern starts to set in during mid-month
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The new CPC outlook completely disagrees that the current pattern continues into mid and late month:
