snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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If we do in fact get near or actually hit 80 or over on Monday, that’s probably the last time until March at least….
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Good call on the basin wide moderate La Niña. I never bought strong but I did think a higher end moderate Niña was possible, didn’t happen
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In a “typical” canonical La Niña, February is the warmest month with forcing over the Maritime Continent/IO. Mid-late January usually starts the warmer pattern. March is really a toss up in Nina’s, some warm, some cold
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I don’t believe anything, simply stating what that particular model run showed lol
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FWIW the new CANSIPS goes with a cold December then RNA/SE ridge, game over for everyone south of New England come January
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FWIW the new CANSIPS has a cold Dec then goes -PNA/SE ridge for Jan and Feb
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The final calculations won’t be done for a few more days, but I just read on Twitter that it’s probably going to be very low
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@40/70 BenchmarkAny idea how Siberian/Eurasian snowcover will end up for October? The Canadian snowcover buildup doesn’t look that impressive for the 1st day of November:
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I agree. When doesn’t any ENSO event not die during the winter? Every Niña or Nino normally peaks between October and December then fades out during the winter. That’s 100% a normal progression. And yes there is a lag whether certain people want to admit it or not
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It’s literally the same exact forecast year after year from DT…he always says whatever ENSO event (Niña/Nino) we are in is going to die very quickly, it won’t matter by mid-winter and it’s going to be cold and snowy on the east coast. He’s predicted the last 5 winters in a row to be cold and snowy with blocking
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My point was that as soon as some people see a -EPO they automatically assume a huge full latitude trough and arctic cold dump into the east. That graphic showed that’s not always the case
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Another Twitter myth debunked, “-EPO = cold in the east”…..nah, not really:
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Yes. I never believed the whole snowcover theory either. It’s just funny how certain things only get hyped to no end on Twitter when perceived “favorable” then when they are not, crickets
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And just like that all the hype on Twitter about Eurasian snowcover, recurving super typhoons and GOA/western North America warm blobs stopped:
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We are about to say goodbye to the warmer GOA and NA west coast SSTs
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The blocking started breaking down around mid-January and by the last week of the month, that winter was over
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Actually for New England, you can get away with Maritime Continent forcing, I mean when isn’t New England not in the game for winter weather? Eastern IO forcing? Game over. But I would not want to live anywhere south of New England come January if the forcing is over the Maritime Continent
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Yes, there is mounting evidence that late November and December are cold, i.e. a true front-loaded canonical La Niña, typical with Maritime Continent forcing. However, Maritime Continent forcing works well until you get into the end of December and January/February with the wavelength change, then it’s torch city
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If anyone puts stock in this index, pray for a miracle the next 8 days, nothing has changed since 10/19:
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IMO we are probably 5 or 6 weeks away from the peak of this Niña event. Thanksgiving week give or take would be my guess
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His profile says he’s a “winter weather expert”
