snowman19

It has zilch for snow, it’s actually gotten worse aloft for anything here. We’ll see what happens at 0z but for now it’s the CMC vs the world, no other model is even remotely close to what it just showed

The UKMET is not even in the same universe as the CMC

Yep. This is 100% the type of winter that will go ice cold mid - late March and all of April and make early spring miserable

The ensembles look very warm right after 2/1. The SE ridge is coming back with a vengeance next month and this time, there will be no -NAO/-AO to tame it like there was during the last RNA period we had in December. Also, the models have doubled down on a very strong SPV in February

People can talk shit about the Euro not being good anymore all they want, but when it consistently shows miss after miss that’s a huge red flag IMO

Yea, nothing supports a SSWE right now. We are literally a 180 degree opposite of last winter when we had that major SSW occur. The SPV looks like it will be extremely strong and coupled come early - mid February. And the models are actually getting more aggressive with the -PNA and +AO/+NAO

There are big questions with next weekend that will limit what happens. The good is that the pattern change on the PAC side will be underway, we usually see storms at the end of established patterns. The other good is the cold that will be in place although it will be starting to relax some at that point but still cold. The issues….still fast flow, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low. The big question is the +PNA ridge….is the GFS actually correct 7 days out with its position and strength? That will greatly affect the downstream trough in the east. If the trough is positively tilted we have issues. If the GFS is wrong about the ridge in the west and the trough doesn’t go negative at the right time it all falls apart like the Euro. Is the GFS handling the northern and southern stream waves correctly? We have a lot to watch over the next week and a lot can change, people need to realize that

Jackpotted 7 days out in winter 21/22…what could possibly go wrong? I’m sure it will look exactly like that next Saturday lol

There is nothing to indicate a major SSW is coming. We’re still waiting for the massive SSWE that wxtwitter and JB said was going to happen back at the beginning of this month…….

Here comes wxtwitter proclaiming that “it’s only going to be warm in the east at 500mb in February. I’m surprised the “it’s only going to be warm aloft” tweets started so early, I figured it would have waited until next week. JB trained them well lol

Don’t worry, JB is predicting a severely cold and snowy February. At least we have that good omen on our side…..

The CANSIPS is also a massive torch like the weeklies. This is about as strong a pattern signal as you will see:

Yea, keep thinking deep winter is coming in February lol You’re going to be in short sleeves soon my dude

Shorter wavelengths aren’t going to matter with what the weeklies show if they are correct. If what they are showing actually happens, it will be a torch, there’s no way to sugar coat it, +EPO, -PNA, +NAO, +AO and a raging strong SPV, SE ridge on roids, is a torch here no matter what the wavelengths are in February

Yea, the wheels are already in motion right now to initiate another RNA regime by the beginning of February. The -PNA should start the last few days of this month. Unlike December, where we had -NAO/-AO blocking which tamed the SE ridge and a strong SPV that never coupled, it’s going to couple this time, get stronger and lead to ++AO/++NAO which allows the SE ridge to really pump. The weeklies also show a +EPO developing, it probably gets well above normal here for awhile:

The pattern we are currently in comes to an end by 1/28….if we haven’t gotten anything by then it will most likely have to wait awhile. It may get very mild/torch for a time with this upcoming RNA bout as it looks like it will be accompanied by +NAO/+AO, unlike the last -PNA period in December which had -NAO blocking, this time around, the SE ridge probably goes on roids as does the SPV…..

I don’t know why anyone in their right mind is still holding out hope that Saturday is going to somehow, someway, magically turn into a major snowstorm for the metro area, it’s done, gone, lost, over, finished, fat lady has sung, dead, buried, bring down the curtain, goodnight, goodbye, history, it’s over Johnny…..Let’s move on…..

1-2 inches looks good for the city….NW of the city is probably a coating/dusting to an inch. That’s why my neck of the woods has no advisory

@AllsnowAlso looks like we go into a strong +AO/+NAO pattern at the same time as the RNA…..the SPV will be at record strong levels and it couples with the troposphere….something that hasn’t happened yet this winter. It may get very mild for awhile:

@AllsnowThe RNA is real…it’s actually moving forward in time on the models instead of staying stuck in the long range….looks like we are in a healthy -PNA by the last couple of days of this month:

And you would be right, the Euro is another complete miss. ICON miss, GFS miss, CMC miss, UKMET nothing, and if you look at the 500mb at the end of their runs, the RGEM and NAM would also be misses. EPS was moving east on the last run. For this to suddenly turn back into a major snowstorm threat for Saturday would be an extreme long shot at the very best

Be real careful with the NAM, I posted in the other thread, but it’s the most aggressive with this event out of all the models and it’s probably way overamped again. It was God awful with this last storm even the day of…..

I wonder if it’s the NAM overamping again….it did a really awful job with this last storm, way too amped

Ok. you’re certainly entitled to think that….

The tail end of the month change back to RNA has been well advertised for the past week and it has a lot of support with the ensembles now. The models did a good job showing the coming end of month change in the tropical forcing a couple of weeks back