snowman19

As the SOI gets more and more negative and the +IOD blossoms, I kind of doubt it stays that way. We’ll have to wait and see

This is very impressive agreement

The +IOD development is also looking more impressive. That will constructively interfere with the Nino. IMO a high-end strong Nino is looking more and more likely. We’ll see about super but if the Nino is in strong territory by the end of August, I would say that possibility goes up substantially. The 20C isotherm is just below the surface in regions 3 and 1+2….once that surfaces, it’s going to enhance Bjerknes feedback in those regions. Given that fact, I think it stays east-based and if it goes basin-wide it will have an east lean

The impact of the record +IOD of 19-20 was grossly underestimated. SSTs north of Australia were 90+ at the end of that summer. It totally altered the global heat budget and helped lead to the ridiculously positive NAM and NAO and SPV that winter

IMO if it does go basin-wide it has an east lean in regions 1+2 and 3. Where the actual main tropical convective forcing is if that happens is anyone’s guess

Agree. Maybe it goes basin-wide? That said, I very highly doubt a Modoki this year, if you look back at all the years that started off this extremely east-based, none of them went to a true Modoki configuration. My guess is that it either stays east-based (most likely) or it goes basin-wide

Region 3.4 is ahead of 1997 and 1982 at this point in time and we are more east-based

This is nothing at all like the El Niño fail of 2017

This is event developing like the El Niños of yester year….starting in regions 1+2 and 3 then expanding westward…..

I think we’re done with the Niña background state. The big +AAM run back in January proves it wants to change. As the El Nino continues to build I expect more +AAM/-SOI runs in the future as the atmosphere couples and feedsback as the Bjerknes effect gets stronger with time

A +IOD is starting to take shape, this is expected to really strengthen over the summer and constructively interfere with El Niño development

Paul Roundy thinks this WWB is going to be legit

The most detailed winter outlook I’ve ever seen. It didn’t work out like you thought but it also didn’t for some big name pros like HM, DT and Larry Cosgrove. HM completely missed the late Dec and Jan/Feb torch a rama, he thought the early-mid Dec blocking was going to lock in. Larry Cosgrove was expecting a 95-96 type of winter from Dec-Mar, a very bad bust for him and he kept saying it was coming right to the bitter end. DT thought it was going to be a big winter initially then he relented in Jan. I know I enjoyed reading through your forecast even though we disagree alot

Paul Roundy still gung ho about this being a very strong El Niño

So far, this Nino event is concentrated in regions 3 and 1+2. Back in the day, they used to use region 3 instead of 3.4 to officially determine Nino strength https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

You don’t ever see this….NOAA giving 94% odds of a very significant El Niño event this fall and early winter….

Not so sure the atmosphere isn’t responding….the SOI is dropping like a rock