snowman19

That may start as some sleet but I agree, that probably is mostly a rain event. The midlevels torch very quickly. If there was a legit 50/50 low or a -NAO that would be a totally different story

That met actually did an amazing job to date. He said this was going to be a total dud winter back in mid-November and he was ignored. No one believed it. He stuck to his guns the entire time and here we are. When everyone was hyping the west-based -NAO and -AO in December he predicted we would end up well below average for snow and the cold would not last. A real impressive job to this point IMO. He thinks the end of this month and February go canonical Niña and the warmth and snow drought continue. Guess we shall see

The thing I don’t expect to change is the SE ridge/WAR. @Bluewave has shown that all the models consistently underestimate it and weaken it in the long range only to correct much stronger as we move closer in time. It happens over and over again. This is been going on for years now. I would expect this to be no different given those blazing SSTs off the east coast, there is a positive feedback loop

But the NAO is positive. The EPS has been showing phantom 50/50 lows several times only to have them simply disappear, just like this latest 50/50 low fail with the Thurs/Fri rainstorm. A -PNA/SE ridge pattern with a +NAO screams inland runners and cutters, unless you can get a legit 50/50 vortex that is actually real and not an EPS or a GEFS mirage and even then you have to pray the shortwave doesn’t really amp because you don’t have a legit -NAO block to stop the cut

And the NAO is positive as hell this time, unlike December when it tamed what would have been a massive RNA/SE ridge torch, this time, there’s nothing to stop it

I’m sure no one is surprised but the EPS caved to the GEFS. Completely tanks the PNA, dumps a full latitude trough in the west and pumps the SE ridge the end of this month into early February

+NAO and the SE ridge/WAR flexing, that’s all you need to see. These storms are going to continue to cut and inland run. Nothing to stop it. The GEFS probably has the right idea with an RNA trough in the west, especially in the final days of this month and the beginning of February

Say canonical La Niña without saying canonical La Niña: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

Not yet because of the Nino like PAC jet extension. Once it retracts and the MJO (Phases 3-6) convection starts constructively interfering with the La Niña come the start of February you should see a climo canonical Niña pattern take over

The GEFS may be rushing it a bit but I think by early February we go RNA/SE ridge. There’s really nothing to stop it. If there’s no -NAO block, we are in trouble

We see you how you have been telling us about this good pattern since November. Maybe it will actually happen come February? Or are you thinking March?

If anyone doubts that La Niña is going to have a major influence on February, look no further. One of the most negative MEI’s in history for December, indicating a very well coupled Niña

100%. No -NAO block, no 50/50 low. SE ridge, RNA. Cutter/inland runner city. I don’t really care what JB and the other weenie mets say, that is not an east coast snowstorm pattern

Yep. The -PNA correction is next. We’ve seen this movie before

And it’s going to happen again. The WAR/SE ridge is going to trend much stronger as we get closer and so is the RNA. You can see the -PNA on the models by the tail end of the month/start of February. Pretty clear at this point we are going to go climo canonical La Niña February as the forcing moves to the IO and Maritime Continent. MJO phases 3-6 and it constructively interferes with the La Niña

Looks like maybe the eastern forks of Long Island get brushed by it

In a canonical La Niña February (-PNA/RNA, Aleutian ridge, SE ridge) pattern, you would need a west-based -NAO block with a 50/50 low to produce in the metro area

Bluewave has pointed this out time and again with the undermodeled WAR in the long range for years now. All the models show it being there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the WAR gets stronger as we get closer and it keeps the cold west of us may make it hard for the cold to progress east

The long range op GFS and twitter has given me over 200 inches of snow so far since November

As bad as this winter has been so far, I think the infamous “vodka cold” winter of 01-02 was worse. Not only was it virtually snowless, there was no cold at all on our side of the pole from November to March. At least this winter we had the major arctic outbreak in late December, although it was very short lived

Pray the new GEFS extended are wrong. It shows the pattern going to hell in the opening first couple of days of February. It goes canonical La Niña, flat Aleutian ridge, -PNA trough dumped into the west and massive SE ridge. CFS also just went to a torch for February but take that model for what it is

The questions are how fast does the cold build up and move east? The other one is, is it just seasonable or actually arctic? The ensembles have different ideas

West Atlantic Ridge

@Bluewave pronounced WAR showing up on the long range ensembles. Wonder if it’s being undermodeled in the long range again?

No way! The GEFS didn’t agree with that asinine op run [emoji23][emoji23]