snowman19

Cold and dry is certainly possible

A change to colder is coming. Going to be post 1/21 but it’s coming. Question is how long it lasts and is it snowy or dry?

East based -NAOs don’t help us

We are in a real bad positive feedback loop in the tropical Pacific, the mild forcing is just going to keep repeating over and over. I think we’re in big trouble TBH. The new JMA just did a huge flip to a very mild pattern right through the end of this month

From the research I’ve read, getting a wind reversal is one of the most important factors in a SSW, it has a profound impact on the NAM state

It’s not budging an inch, and the pattern depicted at the end of its run is showing no signs of breaking down, by then we will be beyond mid January. I guess we’ll see

The EPS absolutely refuses to budge. Still shows a horrible Pacific pattern blasting in right until the end of its new run. We have to consider the possibility now that the Pacific is still awful after mid-month

I don’t ever count on getting over 40 inches of snow between late January and early March. As Don already pointed out, it’s only happened one time in NYC weather history (winter 14-15)

I definitely wouldn’t count on a 14-15 redux. The amount of snow we got from late January to early March that winter was a historic first in the entire history of weather record keeping for NYC

If this pattern change progression gets delayed/slowed beyond 1/21 then we will be depending on February and March to produce at that point. If we look at past history, that’s definitely not a good situation to recover from. Still certainly doable but boy oh boy talk about the definition of backloaded and coming from behind

The Euro has us in transition 1/15-1/21, still not yet a cold pattern during that transition period. I like that timing, I think it really does take until about the 21st or so before we are in a solid below normal regime

Right. It looks above normal until the 21st. I think the big question is and Snowgoose brought this up the other day, once the pattern change occurs, does it go cold and dry/suppressed? Eventually Mother Nature is going to turn the faucet off. Especially if we have a TPV dropping south, cold and dry may be a definite risk, especially for awhile after the change. Law of averages, we can’t keep a wet pattern like this forever, even with an active STJ

The Euro weeklies (IF correct) have it above normal until January 15th, then start the pattern change transition January 15th and it’s complete by January 21st. The pattern finally goes below normal come January 21st or shortly thereafter and beyond, again if the ECMWF weeklies are indeed correct, I guess we’ll see

Unless the low absolutely bombs and dynamically cools the column from aloft with strong UVVs (extremely unlikely) this is an all rain event, even up into New England. By the time it gets here, there is just no cold air anywhere around to pull from. Lost cause

94-95 may not have been such a horrible analog after all

I honestly was thinking about the same thing. Eventually the faucet is going to turn off. I know everyone wants -NAM and I’m pretty sure that’s what’s coming but it may equal suppressed storm tracks even with an active STJ once the pattern change occurs

I still think we see a turn at the end of January. I rushed things expecting a full fledged pattern change at mid-month but as of now I can still see the tide turn afterwards. It’s obvious after the last few days that this is going to be a slow transition

This is the same Steve D who said last year’s SSW in February was going to do nothing and vehemently declared winter over. Then March happened

I won’t wait until it’s blatantly obvious to fail, but my call for a pattern change for mid-January isn’t going to happen as it stands now. Too soon. It was mentioned already, but this unfavorable MJO wave was so strong and persistent that it’s going to have atmospheric lag effects. I also don’t think the SSW is going to be of much, if any help at all, the vortex is most likely going to dump on the other side of the hemisphere. I’m still hopeful for late January but it’s becoming obvious over the last few days that the pattern isn’t going to be in a full scale change by mid month

Yea, the UKMET evolution just looks odd. It would be an inside runner and rain anyway which I’m sure no one wants

Worst case scenario for January at least. Then you will be depending on February and March for a big flip and by then you start to fight against the clock

You’re 100% right. If that happens we are in real big trouble and my call for mid January busts and busts badly

I think it’s getting clearer by the day that we will wait until 1/15 or shortly thereafter before we see a meaningful, lasting change to a colder, snowier pattern

The super Niño forced a ++EPO pattern. It completely overwhelmed the arctic and Atlantic signals

Thank you Rjay. Anyway, in response to dmillz post, the problem with 97-98 was the insanely positive EPO, which was caused as a result of the super El Niño we had in place back then. The NAM (AO/NAO) actually was good that winter, it was just that the Pacific ++EPO signal was so strong that it completely overwhelmed everything