snowman19

I’m not calling for a torch. A +2 month is not a torch

Been saying this since the end of October. I didn’t buy any of the cold November hype. I saw and still see November being another above normal month. A +2F for the month overall would not surprise me. The signs were all there at the end of October that this was going to happen

100% and like @bluewave said, even if you get a -WPO the +EPO still allows the northern branch to punch into the west coast

Yep. And once again, we are dealing with the models pumping phantom -EPO ridges in the long range, only to loose it as we move closer in time. This has been a reoccurring theme for a few years now. I’ve also been saying to view any big +PNA spikes with extreme skepticism given the coupled strengthening Niña and the very strong -PDO/-PMM, any +PNA is not going to have staying power

You’re so stupid it makes me angry. Are you naturally this dumb or did you have to take a class?

And the new GFS pops a 591dm ridge up the east coast for 11/25. That model is Lol-worthy. It flat out sucks, always has, probably always will

11-12 was ridiculous, you had that massive AK/Bering Sea vortex develop a few days after Thanksgiving and it was lights out right through the end of March. It became a semi-permanent feature and the EPO floodgates were wide open all winter. It was crazy persistent. Kind of hard to believe we would see an anomaly like that again

I haven’t seen anyone saying strong. I’ve seen moderate, which is still definitely possible for a peak

It’s getting ready to peak, which will probably happen in the next several weeks, the models all had a November/December peak, which fits ENSO climo, most Nino’s and Nina’s peak in that time frame. This event most likely peaks the tail end of this month or early December, that really doesn’t change anything, was expected and is a normal progression

I guess you haven’t seen some of the tweets the last few days

The problem is you have people who live in places like NJ or the NYC metro area expecting deep winter with arctic cold and snowpack in November because of what certain weenie mets on Twitter have been peddling the last 2 months

I know -IOD events (which we have now) help to enhance La Niña development. They very rarely occur during an El Niño, which favors +IOD

I’m done offering my opinion in this forum. If you offer anything other than NYC is going to have a very cold and very snowy winter you get attacked

Will have to see what effects this has on the stratosphere and the SPV this winter, but HM just pointed out that we are resembling a volcanic stratosphere in some ways right now:

It is. Here’s another opinion on what it’s showing: “Very mild winter for the US”

That is extremely ugly

Not that it matters because I’ve yet to see it actually work, but it looks like Judah’s beloved SAI will be below normal this year, HM illustrates why. Anyway, the SPV strengthening has begun. We need to follow that very closely, definitely agree with you that it will determine December’s fate. Big question, does it stop and weaken at month’s end or does it remain strong? All we can do is monitor it in real time

Not initially, those MJO phases are “classic” Niña phases, which in early winter doesn’t really support torch, but when you get into mid and late winter they do, especially in February when the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent. Which is why Nina’s are stereotyped as “front end loaded” winters

Thank you. Yea, the SPV is the big wild card….the GEFS keeps it strong into early December, the Euro has it weaker but not as weak as last week like you said. Interested to see what actually happens…think we’ll have a better idea by mid month. One thing is certain, I think MJO phases 4-6 are going to be dominant this winter

@bluewave Have you seen the weeklies yet? Just saw on Twitter that they supposedly are still insisting on a +PNA spike just after mid-month but then it starts to collapse come early December. They didn’t provide any maps so I couldn’t tell if the description was accurate

Will be interesting for sure, some are saying the SPV stays strong through the end of the month, some saying it weakens. I’m not buying the EPS +PNA spike in the long range. First off, the EPS has a history of pumping phantom +PNAs in the long range only to back off as we get closer. The GEFS are already backing off the PNA. Second, this isn’t last year where the Niña never coupled. We now have a very well coupled, strengthening La Niña in place along with a strong -PDO and -PMM. I very seriously doubt any extended +PNA

If November turns out to be another above normal month, this will be one of the warmest met falls (Sept - Nov) in history

They are cold for part of Alaska lol

NOAA’s revised temperature outlook for November:

This has been the risk all along…warmer as we get further along in time….the models keep overestimating the “cold” in the long range. The beat goes on……November most likely turns out to be another AN month…..