snowman19

A SSW doesn’t guarantee a cold east. It could split or displace in a bad spot. It can fail to downwell to the troposphere and couple

If that actually happens, we’re in big trouble, for January at least

If the jet configuration still looks like this come 1/15, it will be a very bad sign. I’m sticking with my thoughts for now, but not going to lie, after today’s guidance, I’m starting to wonder. That is a very troubling sight

I’m not anticipating it, but if we get to mid-January without the change in the Pacific that I think is coming, and a change is not at least imminent, on the doorstep at that point, then it will be time to get worried. Like I said, I don’t think that’s going to happen. You also don’t need the SSW for the change, the tropospheric forcing should do that on its own without any help from the stratosphere. There are serious doubts emerging today from the experts on the SSW and what actually happens with it anyway, it may not even downwell enough to affect the tropospheric pattern and a split, if it even happens now or a displacement may very well not be favorable for the east this time like it was back in March

Thank you Don. I didn’t look up the actual data but I knew such a scenario was not only unlikely but an extremely rare feat. Even if extended 3 more weeks to 3/21, an extreme rarity still I’m sure

Over 40 inches of snow in the metro between 1/15-3/1? You’re talking historic. Can a few real big storms and a couple of small events in between get you there? Sure. Would I predict such a pattern? Nope

^This. It’s very remote. The 12/30-1/3 time frame is still really bad for snow here. People need to be patient

Honestly, over the last couple of winters, the Euro has lost a lot of its luster. Flip flops and busts a lot more than I can ever remember. The Para GFS has definitely not been the best either, the guys in the NE forum just pointed this out as well

If something actually happens I think it’s minor and rain, most likely a miss though. You will get your cold and snow pattern come mid January and it probably lasts for awhile, into mid to late February then it’s game over for winter IMO. I don’t think March is going to produce this time. And you don’t need this ridiculously hyped SSW for it to happen, the tropospheric forcing will do it anyway on its own, even without help from the stratosphere. Sunday, in my opinion, is not for us

The pattern on Sunday will still be poor for a snowstorm in the metro. It’s not just going to flip conducive in 5 days, it’s going to take time, but it will get there. It’s obvious that the change is coming but not that early, it’s going to take a couple of weeks...

12/30, if it even happens that is, looks like a very minor event and yes with borderline temps. We are going to have to wait until mid-January before the pattern gets favorable for snow/cold in the metro area

Why would a SSW event at the end of December/early January allow a cold and snowy pattern to extend well into March, over 2 months later? I don’t understand

I’m thinking the same. We don’t even need the SSW, the pattern is going to get colder come mid-January (1/15+) just from the change in tropospheric/tropical convective forcing. I think the 12/31-1/1 “event” is nothing, total non event. When the GFS is the only model showing something and even what is shows isn’t that impressive, something is seriously wrong. I’m thinking 1/15 through mid to late February is cold/snowy, then that’s it. No cold and snowy March this time around, spring comes and stays by early March IMO. The +QBO will be in the bottom of the stratosphere and strengthening at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and that’s all she wrote

Sure, I think it’s cold/snowy starting in mid-January (1/15 or so) through mid to late February and that’s it. I don’t think March is cold/snowy this time around. The +QBO should be strengthening and decended into the lower stratosphere at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s onto spring by early March

The new run of the HRRR is very unimpressive: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018122404&fh=13

Yea, that’s a good call for the higher elevations in NW Sussex County, NJ

NWS expecting less than an inch of snow for the metro area

The trend over the last few years has been for March to be cold and snowy despite ENSO state

Snow melting on contact and not accumulating

I said T-2 and that was pretty accurate for Rockland. There was a lot of white rain yesterday. The real snow fell in Orange County and areas with elevation just like I said. The city got zilch

It’s good for you guys, yes. Orange County north looks good for snow, especially central orange north, southern orange may mix. It has rain all the way up into Rockland and Passaic counties tomorrow night though

Agreed. Gotta be in Orange County for this one

The new 12z model runs would agree with you, this is strictly an Orange County north event. EPS has been showing this as a northern event for days

This looks like a 2-3 inch snowfall for Monday night into Tuesday morning even down in Rockland, Bergen, Westchester and Passaic. We almost certainly wake up to WWAs tomorrow morning

When you have folks who aren’t even mets saying what the weather is “definitely” going to do over the next 4 weeks, as if they are commanding it to do so, especially with respect to something as anomalous as snowfall, is extremely ill advised. Statements like I’ve seen today on twitter, i.e.: “it’s impossible that the I-95 corridor doesn’t see above normal snowfall this month with the upcoming pattern”, is just not smart. No one has the weather or mother nature totally figured out with absolute certainty and if they do, they probably can also walk on water and turn water into wine....