snowman19

It’s getting ready to peak, which will probably happen in the next several weeks, the models all had a November/December peak, which fits ENSO climo, most Nino’s and Nina’s peak in that time frame. This event most likely peaks the tail end of this month or early December, that really doesn’t change anything, was expected and is a normal progression

I guess you haven’t seen some of the tweets the last few days

The problem is you have people who live in places like NJ or the NYC metro area expecting deep winter with arctic cold and snowpack in November because of what certain weenie mets on Twitter have been peddling the last 2 months

I know -IOD events (which we have now) help to enhance La Niña development. They very rarely occur during an El Niño, which favors +IOD

I’m done offering my opinion in this forum. If you offer anything other than NYC is going to have a very cold and very snowy winter you get attacked

Will have to see what effects this has on the stratosphere and the SPV this winter, but HM just pointed out that we are resembling a volcanic stratosphere in some ways right now:

It is. Here’s another opinion on what it’s showing: “Very mild winter for the US”

That is extremely ugly

Not that it matters because I’ve yet to see it actually work, but it looks like Judah’s beloved SAI will be below normal this year, HM illustrates why. Anyway, the SPV strengthening has begun. We need to follow that very closely, definitely agree with you that it will determine December’s fate. Big question, does it stop and weaken at month’s end or does it remain strong? All we can do is monitor it in real time

Not initially, those MJO phases are “classic” Niña phases, which in early winter doesn’t really support torch, but when you get into mid and late winter they do, especially in February when the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent. Which is why Nina’s are stereotyped as “front end loaded” winters

Thank you. Yea, the SPV is the big wild card….the GEFS keeps it strong into early December, the Euro has it weaker but not as weak as last week like you said. Interested to see what actually happens…think we’ll have a better idea by mid month. One thing is certain, I think MJO phases 4-6 are going to be dominant this winter

@bluewave Have you seen the weeklies yet? Just saw on Twitter that they supposedly are still insisting on a +PNA spike just after mid-month but then it starts to collapse come early December. They didn’t provide any maps so I couldn’t tell if the description was accurate

Will be interesting for sure, some are saying the SPV stays strong through the end of the month, some saying it weakens. I’m not buying the EPS +PNA spike in the long range. First off, the EPS has a history of pumping phantom +PNAs in the long range only to back off as we get closer. The GEFS are already backing off the PNA. Second, this isn’t last year where the Niña never coupled. We now have a very well coupled, strengthening La Niña in place along with a strong -PDO and -PMM. I very seriously doubt any extended +PNA

If November turns out to be another above normal month, this will be one of the warmest met falls (Sept - Nov) in history

They are cold for part of Alaska lol

NOAA’s revised temperature outlook for November:

This has been the risk all along…warmer as we get further along in time….the models keep overestimating the “cold” in the long range. The beat goes on……November most likely turns out to be another AN month…..

As long as you have troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO), you aren’t getting arctic cold. That has to change. All -NAO/-AO would do is bring down PAC maritime junk air in that setup. I think we end up with yet another above normal month

I expect November to be yet another above normal month, nothing like October was, which was ridiculously warm, but something like a +1 - +2 AN month would not surprise me. After this week, we mild right back up again. You still have the troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO)….you aren’t going to get cold with that look

Stop listening to Joe Bastardi

Likely in large part thanks to the very persistent +EPO since the beginning of September, it’s been relentless. If November also averages a +EPO, it would be a very bad sign. Griteater’s new twitter thread explains in detail:

I see what you mean, massive solar flare/geomagnetic storm going on right now, just saw the news article on it. Supposedly the biggest solar storm and flux in years: https://timesofsandiego.com/tech/2021/10/29/giant-solar-flare-prompts-geomagnetic-storm-warning-for-halloween-weekend/

He’s irrelevant, been irrelevant for years. No one takes him, Henry Margusity or Judah Cohen seriously anymore.

This time around, the MJO is going to favor phases 4-6 (classic La Niña forcing). You have a very strongly coupled Niña this time around unlike last winter, where phases 1-3 were dominant.

It looks like it gets real mild again by mid-November, nothing like October was, but definitely above normal….question is what happens at the end of the month going into early December?