snowman19

I had thought we were going to be into a sustained cold and snowy pattern change come 1/21. I was wrong, I busted. The 11-15 day period does not look promising right now, that is for sure and that period would take us into early February. I now have very serious doubts about February being any good for sustained cold or snow. I already think March is not a cold and snowy month like the last few have been. I’ve mentioned this before, but by the beginning of March, the +QBO will have descended into the bottom of the stratosphere and it’ll be strengthening. I think that works very strongly against any high latitude blocking, the pattern retrogrades, -PNA/RNA pattern takes over, zonal and semi zonal flow and it’s spring, unlike the last few March’s. The optimism I had for late January through the end of February is fading very quickly

Even the new 3k NAM is only 2 inches of snow total all the way up into Rockland, it matches the 12k for snow totals, same thing: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019011912&fh=38

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019011912&fh=20 That’s hour 20, the changeover actually starts at 17 hours in Rockland and Sussex. Total snowfall: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019011912&fh=27

The new HRRR is really ugly, not like any of the other models are better, but it has a changeover to rain already in progress even up in Rockland and Sussex Counties by 18 hours after only 1-2 inches of snow

Even NW of the city goes over to rain very quickly on all models now, there’s consensus. Up here, maybe 4 inches of snow if you’re lucky then a changeover. The NAM, RGEM, GFS, FV3, ICON, UKMET, HRDPS, CMC, Euro, WRF-ARW and HRRR are now all remarkably similar

The Euro (Kuchera) is barely 4 inches total even up in Rockland County for the weekend

Unless other guidance shows this as a new trend, it’s hard to believe the length of this event really gets cut that short. It’s over, done, all she wrote that quickly? Definitely suspicious for now

The simulated radar was way more impressive earlier

Honestly, since 11/15, this winter has found ways not to snow

So fitting for this winter so far, I guess, the new HRRR has backed way off the snow for tonight/early tomorrow morning, as did the last couple of runs. You can’t make this up https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011723&fh=13

Upton’s new point and click for Rockland County has “little to no snow accumulations” Saturday night and is calling for sleet and freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday. I guess they are thinking that there’s going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch

Very good points. We have seen every storm come north in the last 2 days before so far this winter. If I’m betting, I think the weekend definitely comes more NW in the next couple days. The southern branch disturbance probably strengthens much more than the models show right now given the huge latent heat/convective release from all the Gulf of Mexico moisture and warmth streaming north

This could be quite the freezing rain and sleet event. Every model has the midlevels torching. Usually the midlevel warm punch always verifies warmer as you close in on the storm. The low level jet is going to be screaming in from the south

He’s right. If it happens the way the Euro just showed it is definitely not staying snow. There will be massive midlevel warming in such a setup

It’s showing close to a record ice storm north and west of the city

It would appear the FV3 is about to spit out a completely different solution than the “old” GFS. It may very well be Thursday before a general model consensus like some have been saying

Exactly. Shallow cold at the surface doesn’t mean snow here at all. The midlevel lows are tracking way west of the area. All colder at the surface will mean is sleet (may even be too warm aloft for that) and freezing rain. The midlevels are going to be absolutely torching in a setup like the Euro/GFS/CMC are showing. There may be very minimal snow here and instead ice may be the real story

It sure is, going to be way west. In fact, it may actually show it starting as rain

Yep. 50 degrees even up to where I am

It’s another very bad run, even for the NW suburbs in this forum. It’s a mess all the way up into central New England. Basically no change from 0z here

It’s an old wives tale that snowcover forces storm tracks. Even if for arguments sake we had 2 feet of snowcover on the ground, a storm can still track right over the snowcover. If you get a strong enough shortwave amping up in the wrong spot it doesn’t matter if you have deep snowcover and unmodified arctic air at the surface, the low can still cut right over the snowcover and arctic air. People make this argument all the time and it’s simply not true. It’s happened many times in the past

The mid levels are torching. It’s not staying frozen precip falling with that setup

The lack of a -NAO block is going to be a big problem I think. You are also lacking a very strong -AO and -EPO which could have compensated for not having a -NAO. While I don’t think the weekend is a full on cutter into the Great Lakes, I can easily see an inside/inland runner for sure. I’m not buying the argument that there is going to be secondary coastal redevelopment with no blocking in the Atlantic. You will also be dealing with a bit of a SE Ridge pop next weekend

It’s kind of hard to have secondary redevelopment without North Atlantic blocking (-NAO) ahead of the primary parent low

The GFS looks like it’s going to be an inland runner