snowman19

We are entering a long term -AMO phase. -AMO is correlated with predominant +NAO. Opposite for +AMO. -AMO is also associated with fewer KU events overall

As long as you have this raging PAC jet, it’s going to be a huge problem: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=npac&pkg=uv250&runtime=2019012706&fh=384

I’ll believe the -NAO when it actually happens

There are big problems beyond the 1st week of February too. Look at the strength of the PAC jet going into mid month. It’s absolutely raging, zonal and aimed directly at the CONUS

Ummm that’s an anomaly above average map, so yea, they are wayyy above normal lmaooo

Yep the SSTS are on fire out that way, sustaining the positive feedback process and beefing up the latent and sensible heat releases through strong convection and evaporation

That’s the problem, right there. All the tropical convective forcing is well west of the dateline, around Australia. There has been an explosion of tropical storm activity around/north of Australia recently. All that convective, latent heat release into the upper troposphere helps to really strengthen and push the west Pacific High poleward. A strong poleward west Pacific High promotes the pattern the long range ensembles are showing. Look at the SSTs out that way, they are on fire, helping the positive feedback process and latent heat release

This isn’t trolling. Do you not read? I was calling a pattern change to cold and snowy after mid January back in December and early this month. Remember all my posts? All you ever do is hype cold and snow every winter. You’ve literally been calling for cold and snow non stop since mid November after that one snowstorm we’ve had all winter. What has happened? The city has yet to see one inch of snow since then and every month has been above normal for temps

In 10 days euro has a blowtorch. It (EPS) actually starts to get really bad around day 8 but yea the pattern turns into a disaster in the 1st week of February. GEFS and GEPS also show this. At that point we are less than 4 weeks away from met spring. I have serious doubts as to whether we ever go into a sustained cold and snow pattern before winter’s end now

14-15 had a classic, very strong ++PDO which we don’t have the luxury of now. It played a huge role in the very favorable Pac side we had back then

The Pacific has refused to cooperate since late November yes. We were spoiled and compensated for the NAO and AO not being favorable the last several winters. Just based on what I’m seeing now, like I said before, the Pacific is looking to become hostile again come week 2 of February. Question is, is it a week of being unfavorable or something more lengthy?

I’m not talking about next week. I said come the 2nd week of February. You can see the retrogression on all models

There’s pretty good guidance suggesting that we go positive EPO and back to zonal come the 2nd week of February. If you look at the 200mb, the Pacific jet is gaining quite a bit a strength now over the far western Pacific again and it would appear another jet extension period is building up

Good luck with that. We can’t buy a -NAO the last few winters. I think we have entered into a long term +NAO cycle related to the long term -AMO flip

Unfortunately it looks like the raging PAC jet is going to come screaming back for at least a time in early-mid February. You can already see it really loading up again in the far western Pacific. It looks like quite an impressive jet extension at that. Question is, when/if it exhausts, do we get a jet retraction, weakening and favorable pattern thereafter? Honestly, I don’t know

What good is a -NAO & -AO going to do if the EPO is positive? +EPO overwhelms them. And everytime a +PNA has shown up since November, it’s been transient and gets blasted right apart by raging Pacific flow

After what we’ve been experiencing since late November till now, I’m doubting any sustained change to a cold and snow pattern. And if the ensembles are right about a +EPO forming by the 2nd week of February, that month will be in serious trouble too IMO

Right, same repeating pattern since late November. Any +PNA just gets blasted apart by the Pacific jet crashing into it. What is being shown on the long range ensembles (+EPO) going into February is very, very troubling to say the least

Looks good for northern New England yea

The problem is the roaring, unrelenting Pacific jet. This started in late November and hasn’t stopped since, over 2 months now. Everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form it gets blasted apart from the raging Pacific flow and flow goes right back to zonal/semizonal and we get screwed. Hope and pray the 0z ensembles are wrong about a big +EPO forming. If that happens it’s game over to start February

Yea, it’s a rainstorm on that model, too warm

That looks nothing at all like Boxing Day

Biggest issue in my opinion is no -NAO block. If there was, this would be game on for a massive snowstorm

Agree here. No -NAO, no 50/50 low, no big arctic high in SE Canada and yea unfavorable ridge positioning in the west. The Atlantic is definitely a real big problem though. As some others mentioned, the lack of cold is a big issue

Since 11/15, this winter has found ways not to snow, a very bad sign. Usually the truly historic winters find ways to snow, they snow in bad patterns. On the flip side, the true duds find ways not to snow, given that it’s the end of January, I’d say we are definitely making a run for a dud right now