snowman19

Just trapping PAC maritime air underneath

Great post as always. At least a pro met said what I’ve been saying the last month. I can’t get accused of anything now lol

And a low in the lakes where there should be a high, but it’s very close

Good luck popping a +PNA lmaooo every attempt has been a epic fail for the last 3 months and they correct even more negative as we get closer in time, as we see for Christmas week but you go with that lol

This has been the theme for months….stronger -PNA showing up as we move closer in time. Every attempt at weakening that RNA has failed since early September. On the GEFS, you can see a very deep -PNA reloading in the opening days of January….

The question then becomes the MJO….is it really just moving super slow or is something else at cause:

Correct that phase 7 isn’t bad in January, not great but not bad, however, the concerns that it doesn’t advance into phase 8 are definitely valid

I know no one wants to hear this, but there’s a chance it doesn’t propagate into phases 8, 1 and either dies out or loops back into 6. I remember a winter not that long ago where the models kept plowing the MJO into phase 8, 1 from November until March and it didn’t happen once, it kept dying in 7 and never advanced….

That +PNA fantasy in the long range yesterday didn’t take long to disappear as expected. Back to deep -PNA as far as the eye can see…..

Any +PNA (if it even happens) will be transient IMO. There is zero support for anything other than transient +PNA this winter, BUT….when and if one pops, that’s the time for an east-coast snowstorm. We watch….

I would have to agree that the end of this month into early January is colder, assuming that the MJO wave progresses normally, into 7, 8, 1, which is a big “if” right now. The question then become post 1/10. Some models are showing IO convection flaring up by mid-January. If that’s really the case (another “if) then the pattern will start to mild up as we progress into mid-late January and February in the absence of some major SSWE. There are a lot of questions going forward and given the severely -PDO and -PMM, I would seriously doubt any extended +PNA run being shown on the models. We have been constantly defaulting back to a big -PNA/RNA since the beginning of September

Wasn’t the JMA showing a very cold December with a big trough over the east at the end of last month?

The big La Niña strengthening period shown by the models at the end of October/beginning of November worked out very well. It has now reached moderate (-1.1C in region 3.4) strength. One thing is certain, the La Niña and the record -PDO/-PMM will not be denied. The long range models show convection starting to fire in the IO by mid-January, to be taken with a grain of salt of course, but should that happen, it will get milder again after the end of December/early January period, which fits Niña climo. If that’s going to be the case we will need a major SSW to really shake things up so we don’t follow -ENSO climo (warmer) going into mid-late January and February. This is a very well coupled -ENSO event, unlike last year….. @donsutherland1

I’m still waiting for the 8-12 inches in my area that the GFS showed for run after run earlier this month…..

The EPS is not showing a KU pattern

If the PNA rise is real and that’s a big if, then you have a major snowstorm pattern. I’ll believe a +PNA when I see it. Let’s see if those 2 models hold it for more than a couple of runs

Central and northern Northern New England should do well….

Looks good for New England

As long as there is a mega -PNA/full latitude trough in the west, we have big problems here, real big. And the La Niña just peaked at moderate intensity in early December, which some said would never, ever happen….it should have been long dead and gone back in October, that’s going nowhere fast. The weak SPV in December didn’t happen either….the SPV is very strong and we have the strongest -PDO since the 1950’s. It’s time to stop listening to the wishcasters and listen to reality. The SE ridge is going to be a real big problem too….look at those blazing SSTs along and off the east coast…..feeding back into it

All the people who wrote off the La Niña as “dead” back in October were dead wrong. It just went moderate, peaking in December. Time to start praying for a major SSW to disrupt the normal Niña progression for mid-late January and February, especially given the severely -PDO/coupled Niña or the pattern is going to torch big time once the tropical convective forcing moves back to the maritime continent as per normal Niña climo, this isn’t last year where the Niña never coupled….

@donsutherland1 They are all very persistent with the -PNA, also, some big questions on what actually happens with the MJO and if it actually gets into phase 8 or does then dies out. Allan explains: Also, the La Niña has now gone moderate, doesn’t appear to be going anywhere soon, it’s effects will certainly continue into January, February, March:

A big concern for sure