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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    It’s an old wives tale that snowcover forces storm tracks. Even if for arguments sake we had 2 feet of snowcover on the ground, a storm can still track right over the snowcover. If you get a strong enough shortwave amping up in the wrong spot it doesn’t matter if you have deep snowcover and unmodified arctic air at the surface, the low can still cut right over the snowcover and arctic air. People make this argument all the time and it’s simply not true. It’s happened many times in the past
  2. snowman19
    The mid levels are torching. It’s not staying frozen precip falling with that setup
  3. snowman19
    The lack of a -NAO block is going to be a big problem I think. You are also lacking a very strong -AO and -EPO which could have compensated for not having a -NAO. While I don’t think the weekend is a full on cutter into the Great Lakes, I can easily see an inside/inland runner for sure. I’m not buying the argument that there is going to be secondary coastal redevelopment with no blocking in the Atlantic. You will also be dealing with a bit of a SE Ridge pop next weekend
  4. snowman19
    It’s kind of hard to have secondary redevelopment without North Atlantic blocking (-NAO) ahead of the primary parent low
  5. snowman19
    The GFS looks like it’s going to be an inland runner
  6. snowman19
    Not even the normally colder Para GFS is showing anything like the Euro. For now, op Euro vs the world. EPS should be interesting
  7. snowman19
    It seems like there’s some winters that just want to snow, it snows in unfavorable setups, just comes out of nowhere, then there’s the ones that just find any excuse not to snow....
  8. snowman19
    That’s the one. I believe it was January 1994. Unmodified arctic air at the surface, like 2+ feet of snowcover and freezing rain. It was a crippling ice storm
  9. snowman19
    The 93-94 winter had a massive freezing rain storm in the metro with temps in the single digits, further upstate had freezing rain with temps below zero
  10. snowman19
    Why exactly wouldn’t you see freezing rain with single digit temps? As in you don’t think that’s physically possible or what?
  11. snowman19
    The problem would be if it gains amplitude in phases 4&5. Then we will have issues at the end of the month
  12. snowman19
    Yep. The northern part of the shield is going to get shredded by confluence
  13. snowman19
    Great post. +AMO not only favors NATL blocking (-NAO), it also strongly favors more KU events. I don’t think the recent streak of +NAO winters since we’ve begun going into a -AMO is any coincidence. As we get deeper into the long term -AMO cycle, I’m willing to bet that we see a real big drop in the number of KU’s and majority +NAO winters coming up in the next decade
  14. snowman19
    A big part of the problem was the ridiculous analogs being peddled around back in September, October and November. Some folks were calling for wall to wall winter from November through March and it backfired horribly
  15. snowman19
    Also the threats that stay snow, end up going way suppressed
  16. snowman19
    Since late November, the cold and snowy pattern changes stay at day 10+ and never move forward in time. The long range never advances and when it becomes medium range it corrects much warmer. It honestly reminds me of 2011-2012. Deja Vu
  17. snowman19
    Don’t even have to look at the rest of it, the Euro is going to be suppressed, even DC is going to have totals cut back from 12z. Weaker too
  18. snowman19
    Good point. We have been slowly going into a long term -AMO cycle for the last couple of years. Once we get into the negative flip, I also expect more +NAO and less KU events overall. Research has shown -AMO periods (late 1970’s-early 1990’s) favor +NAO and a drop in the number of KU storms. This was especially true in the 1980’s during our last long term -AMO cycle
  19. snowman19
    Yea exactly. It actually didn’t trend north at all. In fact, the main heavier precipitation shield down in the DC area moved south this run from 0z
  20. snowman19
    That’s what I mentioned a couple weeks about the post 1/21 period; cold and dry. I always felt that was the threat, especially with a TPV nearby
  21. snowman19
    Then it does this: http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120
  22. snowman19
    That right there (unrelenting Pacific jet) is one of the reasons why I do not believe we are headed for a ‘14-‘15 esque late January to early March comeback. The other reason is the PDO. Jan-Mar ‘15 had a severely positive PDO, over +2. We have nothing close to that this time around. I believe the extremely positive PDO is what drove a lot of that winter
  23. snowman19
    Unless the Euro does something later, the Para GFS is a big time outlier tonight. The UKMET just came in OTS
  24. snowman19
    Didn’t NOAA put a statement out yesterday about the GFS having major problems that they can’t fix due to the shutdown? I’m trying to find the actual article
  25. snowman19
    MJO re-emergence in phases 5&6 in late January would definitely not be good, to say the very least
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