snowman19

^This. It’s very remote. The 12/30-1/3 time frame is still really bad for snow here. People need to be patient

Honestly, over the last couple of winters, the Euro has lost a lot of its luster. Flip flops and busts a lot more than I can ever remember. The Para GFS has definitely not been the best either, the guys in the NE forum just pointed this out as well

If something actually happens I think it’s minor and rain, most likely a miss though. You will get your cold and snow pattern come mid January and it probably lasts for awhile, into mid to late February then it’s game over for winter IMO. I don’t think March is going to produce this time. And you don’t need this ridiculously hyped SSW for it to happen, the tropospheric forcing will do it anyway on its own, even without help from the stratosphere. Sunday, in my opinion, is not for us

The pattern on Sunday will still be poor for a snowstorm in the metro. It’s not just going to flip conducive in 5 days, it’s going to take time, but it will get there. It’s obvious that the change is coming but not that early, it’s going to take a couple of weeks...

12/30, if it even happens that is, looks like a very minor event and yes with borderline temps. We are going to have to wait until mid-January before the pattern gets favorable for snow/cold in the metro area

Why would a SSW event at the end of December/early January allow a cold and snowy pattern to extend well into March, over 2 months later? I don’t understand

I’m thinking the same. We don’t even need the SSW, the pattern is going to get colder come mid-January (1/15+) just from the change in tropospheric/tropical convective forcing. I think the 12/31-1/1 “event” is nothing, total non event. When the GFS is the only model showing something and even what is shows isn’t that impressive, something is seriously wrong. I’m thinking 1/15 through mid to late February is cold/snowy, then that’s it. No cold and snowy March this time around, spring comes and stays by early March IMO. The +QBO will be in the bottom of the stratosphere and strengthening at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and that’s all she wrote

Sure, I think it’s cold/snowy starting in mid-January (1/15 or so) through mid to late February and that’s it. I don’t think March is cold/snowy this time around. The +QBO should be strengthening and decended into the lower stratosphere at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s onto spring by early March

The new run of the HRRR is very unimpressive: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018122404&fh=13

Yea, that’s a good call for the higher elevations in NW Sussex County, NJ

NWS expecting less than an inch of snow for the metro area

The trend over the last few years has been for March to be cold and snowy despite ENSO state

Snow melting on contact and not accumulating

I said T-2 and that was pretty accurate for Rockland. There was a lot of white rain yesterday. The real snow fell in Orange County and areas with elevation just like I said. The city got zilch

It’s good for you guys, yes. Orange County north looks good for snow, especially central orange north, southern orange may mix. It has rain all the way up into Rockland and Passaic counties tomorrow night though

Agreed. Gotta be in Orange County for this one

The new 12z model runs would agree with you, this is strictly an Orange County north event. EPS has been showing this as a northern event for days

This looks like a 2-3 inch snowfall for Monday night into Tuesday morning even down in Rockland, Bergen, Westchester and Passaic. We almost certainly wake up to WWAs tomorrow morning

When you have folks who aren’t even mets saying what the weather is “definitely” going to do over the next 4 weeks, as if they are commanding it to do so, especially with respect to something as anomalous as snowfall, is extremely ill advised. Statements like I’ve seen today on twitter, i.e.: “it’s impossible that the I-95 corridor doesn’t see above normal snowfall this month with the upcoming pattern”, is just not smart. No one has the weather or mother nature totally figured out with absolute certainty and if they do, they probably can also walk on water and turn water into wine....

I love twitter right now and the “experts” proclaiming that it’s “impossible” “no way, not going to happen” that the I-95 corridor is not going to have seen well above average snowfall come December 31st. “Above average snowfall definitely coming, buckle up.” Famous last words. Talk about setting yourself up for a gigantic, epic bust making statements like that. Nothing in weather is “impossible” or “no way, not happening” or “definitely happening” weeks in advance. You don’t speak in absolutes in weather, doing so ends up making you look foolish when it doesn’t work out. No one has the weather all figured out. I have a feeling some folks may be eating humble pie 4 weeks from now

No not really. I’m a weather fan period. All weather; warm, cold, snow, rain, wind, dry. I’m not just a cold and snow fan only, unlike some others ;-)

With the amount of uber hype circulating around social media about mid-December becoming epically cold and snowy, if it fails, I honestly believe there will be mental breakdowns and suicide attempts if it’s not at least -10F below normal with 40+ inches of snow between December 15th - January 1st....

Just watched an interview about global warming with The Weather Channel founder, John Coleman. Honestly, the guy made himself sound completely delusional. He said over and over “There is no global warming at all.” He completely denied any global warming whatsoever, no matter how small. I happen to believe that man has nothing at all to do with global warming. IMO it is a totally natural earth cycle, related to the oceans and the sun, more so the oceans. But to completely deny that there’s any warming at all is crazy as far as I’m concerned. Global warming is undeniable, however I think the reason is not mankind related.....

The onslaught of kids playing fake meteorologist on social media is really turning this science into a joke. People who don’t know any better, follow them thinking they are legit and actually believe their proclamations of historic blizzards and biblical cold coming from November to April. The clueless, fake predictions never come to fruition of course, then people start saying “it’s all hype”, “meteorologists get paid to be totally wrong, they know nothing”, “computer models suck”, “they are never right”. They are doing some serious damage to this field because 90% of the general public that sees their garbage don’t realize they aren’t really mets and their forecasts are fake wishcasts and hype meant to panic people. It becomes the boy who cried wolf in the public’s eyes when there really is a major snowstorm or severe cold coming and the real mets are trying to warn people. It’s really a shame and it’s becoming an epidemic.

Guess the weeklies weren’t cold and snowy based on twitter...the same people who were in love, praising its last run are hating on it now, “it’s wrong” as one comment said. Don’t even have to look to know the gist of what the latest run is showing lol