snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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That was the winter with the crazy 24+ hour sleet storm. They actually had to plow it in my area. Never seen sleet accumulate like that in my life, had to be 4-5 inches worth all together
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@40/70 BenchmarkDid you look at 2016-2017? Yes, I know it was coming off the super El Nino, this Niña is much stronger and the current -PDO, high solar flux/geomag, Atlantic ACE and volcanic stratosphere don’t match up, however, it was strong -IOD, +QBO and unfavorable Atlantic SSTs for -NAO and you also have this:
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We’ll see what happens by November and you’re right, guidance is notoriously way too fast with the demise of Nina’s and Nino’s
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Like you said, I very seriously doubt we go officially neutral/La Nada until April. At least in regions 3.4, 4 and possibly 3. I think we see a late November or early December peak with a slow rise out of moderate territory during the winter. I’m not buying the models showing a rapid rise after December, they have grossly underestimated this Niña event for the last 3 years
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The projected RNA/-PNA is probably real this time, gaining more support
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Yes, you are correct, the models have been wanting to tank the PNA to no avail the last 2 months, however, this time, it actually has support in the global circulation to do so.
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Reading comprehension isn’t your strong point. By November. If you actually took the time to look at the chart, the change begins towards the end of this month, we are already nearly at mid-October
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The overwhelming majority of the time it has been very positive since August, minus a few very few brief bouts of negative
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The signs for a possible pattern change by November are finally starting to show up. For the 1st time in months, the models are starting to breakdown the extremely persistent +PNA ridge that has been in place since August
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Snowski loves doing this. He deliberately misquotes people and greatly exaggerates. He also flip flops like a fish out of water. He has been doing this in the NYC forum for years
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Really? Because you seem to love when Joe Bastardi puts out his yearly Groundhog Day winter wishcast…sorry, I mean forecast for a cold and snowy winter in the east
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Still a very well coupled La Niña in place:
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Still a very well coupled La Niña:
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That is not my opinion, that is fact. If the main forcing is in the eastern IO, it’s lights out. New England may be ok with Maritime Continent forcing, but everything south of there is screwed. A lot can change between now and December however
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If this eastern IO convection continues into winter that might not be far from the truth. So far this fall we have seen very persistent and consistent eastern IO/Maritime Continent forcing, really since August. If that’s where the forcing is going to set up this winter, once the wavelengths change, we are in big trouble
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@40/70 BenchmarkThis is what we spoke of a couple of weeks ago….what you don’t want to see come winter. Very persistent Eastern Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent forcing. IMO keep a very close eye on this going into November and see what happens….if this is where the main forcing is going to be this winter, we have a problem:
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The amount of people already spiking the football on twitter on 10/7 is crazy. One meteorologist from PA (no, not JB or Henry) is calling for the coldest and snowiest winter ever in history for the east coast. I’m not a fan of this index or Cohen and I think it has lead to monumental busts over the last 10 years, but you have to wait until 11/1 to really judge how well or not well Siberian snowcover ended up. It’s the entire month averaged out like you said
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Rockland County got a solid 16-18 inches as I remember
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At one point they were comparing 12/30/00 to the Blizzard of ‘96 and the Megalopolis Blizzard of ‘83, the media hype was out of control for DC-BOS
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I would be in total shock if this event goes strong over the next 2 months but there are still mets who think it does:
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This is the last push of strengthening, probably through late November/early December then we start marching toward neutral. Then the warming really starts to pickup this coming spring….probably in an El Niño by late summer IMO
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I was a kid for that storm, the thing I remember besides helping my Dad shovel was the extremely heavy snowfall rates. It had to be 2-3 inches+ per hour for a few hours at one point during that storm, definitely some of the heaviest snow I ever saw in my life
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Looks like a moderate peak is a good call:
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If that’s correct….if….then December most likely ends up colder and snowier than normal
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@40/70 Benchmark This Niña is definitely basin wide now. Every region is solidly in a Niña
