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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    We can keep using the persistence argument/forecast but eventually that doesn’t work anymore. Patterns are bound to change, they can’t stay the same forever, especially after almost 10 years
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    Right, however, now that we have this strong El Niño event developing, coupled with a very healthy +IOD, my thinking is that this may be enough to finally break the IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. We will have to wait and see
  5. snowman19
    Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to produce strong subsidence over the IO and the Maritime Continent. That should effectively kill the “Niña-like” MJO wave phases
  6. snowman19
    Yes. That upcoming WWB means business. So does the developing +IOD, which is going to constructively interfere with the El Nino and you can kiss the La Niña like MJO phases goodbye
  7. snowman19
    @Gawx
  8. snowman19
    The new Euro is showing a strong +IOD developing. It’s going to constructively interfere with the El Niño. I think these MJO attempts are about to change in a big way
  9. snowman19
    The new Copernicus model run just came out today….add that to the growing list of models showing a very strong El Niño by fall
  10. snowman19
    Likely very temporary with another major -SOI onslaught and WWBs coming. Once these TC’s start forming in the Eastern Pacific, it’s only going to increase the westerlies/WWBs behind them as they move away
  11. snowman19
    The El Niño atmospheric response is increasing
  12. snowman19
    I’m not talking about him. JB said it’s turning into a Modoki
  13. snowman19
    Anything is possible and we will see. I am however very confident that this is not becoming a Modoki like some other people are wishcasting
  14. snowman19
    Region 1+2 is blazing again, up to +2.6C and climbing, region 3 is at +1.2C and also climbing. This event isn’t just east-based, it’s extremely east-based. And there’s yet another Eastern Pacific WWB/downwelling Kelvin wave
  15. snowman19
    Classic Eastern Pacific (EP) canonical El Niño. The east-based warming/WWBs/downwelling Kelvin waves just continue to get re-enforced through Bjerknes feedback:
  16. snowman19
  17. snowman19
    @Bluewave The new GEFS is showing a strong WWB in the EPAC (regions 3 and 1+2). Another big warming coming in that area? I think this event is going to be known for its WWBs and downwelling Kelvin waves in the EPAC breaking on the South American coast
  18. snowman19
    The thing is though, every Nino in history has weakened during northern hemispheric winter. Every Nino on record normally peaks in November/December then weakens in Jan, Feb, Mar. If that’s what this one does, it would be perfectly normal and expected
  19. snowman19
    ENSO region 1+2 warming again…almost up to +2.5C. Region 3 up to +1.2C and climbing…https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png
  20. snowman19
    @Raindancewx is on board too
  21. snowman19
    The NMME is going nuclear with the Nino this summer: https://twitter.com/climate_earth20/status/1666499588201627649?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
  22. snowman19
    The new POAMA isn’t budging. While it’s the warmest, all the other models are warming and starting to come towards a +2.0C consensus for a peak this coming fall
  23. snowman19
  24. snowman19
    Probably another round of extreme negative SOI coming in less than 2 weeks if the models are correct
  25. snowman19
    Yes, Paul Roundy said that exact same thing back at the end of April. Said we didn’t need a WWB progression like 1997 for this event to get very strong. He’s been on the very east-based El Nino migrating itself west into region 3.4 train. He still thinks this one is going to reach super
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