snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I get it you hate me. Everytime I post you jump all over me and try to embarrass me. You win, not worth it anymore. I’m done. Not posting in here again. You finally bullied and harassed me away. Not worth the headache anymore, this has been a tit for tat game for years
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Do you not see the WWA for 2-3 inches of snow for Rockland??? These models don’t even have an inch
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ICON: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2023012506&fh=21 3k NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012506&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= HRRR: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023012509&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012506&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Today is going to bust IMO. The new 3K NAM, RGEM, HRRR and ICON all have a total non event
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NAM = Trash
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View anything the NAM shows with extreme skepticism. It did an absolutely horrendous job Monday, the HRRR and RGEM did the best
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The new HRRR basically starts it as rain from Rockland/Bergen/Westchester south
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I’m sure they have their reasons. No models are showing Rockland getting 2-3 inches, not one. The Euro, which is the snowy outlier is the only one showing anything close to that if you use 10:1 ratios, which tomorrow won’t be, the Kuchera is much less. Everything else (12K/3K NAM, RGEM, GFS, HRDPS, CMC, HRRR, ICON, UKMET, FV3, HREF) don’t show that kind of accumulation
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NAM caved to the RGEM
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The NAM sucks. It completely busted yesterday. The 3K NAM barely has anything at all in Rockland, nothing south of there
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The Euro must be running late
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The 3K NAM has less than an inch for Rockland, nothing south of there. Ditto for the Ukie. This one is probably DOA. We may start as rain tomorrow.
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I doubt we score in the 2/1-2/7 time frame. No -NAO or 50/50 low. I think whatever happens is an inland runner. This winter is on life support
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ICON nada, CMC nada, GFS less than one inch even up here. This winter is a dumpster fire shit show. NYC probably breaks the all time record now
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The RGEM has no front end at all now. Even up in Rockland County. It has it starting as rain. You can’t make this winter up
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Yea, I was looking at the composites last night. If the vortex moves over AK mid-late February, the EPO floodgates open wide and it’s game over winter 22-23
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It might propagate out into the Pacific in early March? I don’t know, I’m starting to think March isn’t going to be all that good. If the SPV restrengthens mid-late February, I think it’s over
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Agree with you. If we don’t score in the first week of February, we are probably done until March, maybe. Not having the SSW may have screwed March. I think the pattern goes to hell after 2/7
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I’m simply stating what has been going on the last 3 months
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Euro with the cut back for Wednesday. It just doesn’t want to snow here this winter
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Let’s see what it looks like at 0z tomorrow
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Ukie…total whiff https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023012400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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The GFS is still caving it’s almost as bad as the NAM. This is what it’s showing now and the cave still isn’t done: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023012400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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And the inevitable back off from the GFS and ICON at 18z, seems to be another win for the RGEM/CMC suite incoming
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Yep, it looks like brief, non accumulating snow/sleet then right over to rain
