snowman19

Yea, February looks like a lost cause. It is way, way too far out to even think seriously about yet, but there is a possibility that early March might become favorable for wintry weather again. Depends on if the MJO can actually propagate out into the Pacific and how fast the cold can build back up in Canada and the CONUS. Just keep in mind that we will obviously be fighting March climo/length of day/sun angle at that point and it will be March “cold”, but I suppose there is possibly a window in early March for “something”. Maybe

Since the NAO is going to be positive we are going to need a strong 50/50 low to create confluence and make it work for our area. If there’s not one, then it’s probably congrats New England. And until proven otherwise, the SE ridge is going to trend stronger as we get closer

Even where I am up in Sloatsburg there has yet to be a plowable snowfall. It’s crazy to say that on 1/16. The last time plows were needed up here was the minor event we had on Sat, March 12th, 2022. Over 10 months ago….insane

Agree Walt. The ensembles are showing a look the end of the month that would definitely favor I-84 north. It’s going to be very difficult to get anything substantial snow-wise for the I-95 corridor with this setup

This guy is actually really good, not biased and explains things very well. This is a good tweet chain explaining what is happening with the pattern

Joe D’Aleo threw in the towel. Said based on his SST analogs he doubts any cold the end of this month makes it to the east coast because of the SE ridge. Also thinks February is going to be a SE ridge torch. When he gives up you know it’s real bad. He’s one of the biggest cold misers there is

Yep, it looks cooked for February and probably for most if not the entire month. The worst part is all the cold will be scoured out of Canada during that time. Maybe something happens snow wise early March to avoid another 01-02 or 72-73 shutout, but you will first have to completely rebuild a cold supply, that takes time and you are quickly running out of time at that point with March climo against you

Sorry, I’m too tired to look it up right now with all the awesome potential and great patterns I’ve been digging out from the last 3 months….

How much snow has NYC had total so far since November? I’m trying to find the number. How about the average for temps since November?

As soon as you see JB doing videos and tweeting about climate change, PDO’s, etc., you know it’s bust time

He comes off as pompous but he’s right here. February looks very, very ugly. And if a “good” look does show up again, it’s not going to immediately get cold. That pattern is going to flood everything with PAC air and the cold would have to build back up, it would probably be early March at that point, and we begin fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. I think the pattern probably gets “good” by early March, but how fast can it get cold again after the PAC onslaught will be the issue. Maybe we squeeze something out snow wise then to avoid a total shutout….

@40/70 Benchmark Seems like a good call so far with the canonical La Niña February in your winter forecast. The overnight GEFS are real ugly, going with a flat Aleutian ridge by 2/1. That’ll do a good job of flooding the pattern with PAC maritime air. It’s also absolutely tanking the PNA and dumping a full latitude trough out west. That’s a lights out look for everyone south of New England….

It’s already not as bad as 01-02 because it actually got cold the last week of December, even though it only lasted 4 days. That winter never got cold. As far as not getting snow, yea it’s comparable to 01-02 so far, but that winter was dry, this one wants to rain and produce thunderstorms in the middle of January

The GEFS just got even uglier (if that’s possible) by 2/1. It has a flat Aleutian ridge and a -PNA trough digging down into Baja. If that’s correct it’s a lights out look, even without the SE ridge. As depicted, that would completely flood Canada and the CONUS with Pacific Maritime air, arctic completely cutoff. The PAC is a total cluster you know what on that run

Larry has been real bad this entire winter. He’s been saying winter is going to lock into the east and we’re going to have a locked in +PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern since November. He was calling for a 95-96 type winter. Even is recently as 2 days ago he was saying the east was going to flip to deep winter and get cold and snowy. He won’t budge either, real stubborn, this is the 3rd month in a row he’s been wrong

Anytime you have a +NAO along with a -PNA/SE ridge pattern you are going to have a very high risk of cutters and inland runners. You may be able to thread the needle with a transient strong 50/50 low to act as a pseudo block and create confluence in that setup, but it takes some good luck and timing

Yea. Textbook La Niña pattern to start February. The upcoming eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing supports it too. That look has the typical February tropical convective forcing you normally see in Nina’s

That may start as some sleet but I agree, that probably is mostly a rain event. The midlevels torch very quickly. If there was a legit 50/50 low or a -NAO that would be a totally different story

That met actually did an amazing job to date. He said this was going to be a total dud winter back in mid-November and he was ignored. No one believed it. He stuck to his guns the entire time and here we are. When everyone was hyping the west-based -NAO and -AO in December he predicted we would end up well below average for snow and the cold would not last. A real impressive job to this point IMO. He thinks the end of this month and February go canonical Niña and the warmth and snow drought continue. Guess we shall see

The thing I don’t expect to change is the SE ridge/WAR. @Bluewave has shown that all the models consistently underestimate it and weaken it in the long range only to correct much stronger as we move closer in time. It happens over and over again. This is been going on for years now. I would expect this to be no different given those blazing SSTs off the east coast, there is a positive feedback loop

But the NAO is positive. The EPS has been showing phantom 50/50 lows several times only to have them simply disappear, just like this latest 50/50 low fail with the Thurs/Fri rainstorm. A -PNA/SE ridge pattern with a +NAO screams inland runners and cutters, unless you can get a legit 50/50 vortex that is actually real and not an EPS or a GEFS mirage and even then you have to pray the shortwave doesn’t really amp because you don’t have a legit -NAO block to stop the cut

And the NAO is positive as hell this time, unlike December when it tamed what would have been a massive RNA/SE ridge torch, this time, there’s nothing to stop it

I’m sure no one is surprised but the EPS caved to the GEFS. Completely tanks the PNA, dumps a full latitude trough in the west and pumps the SE ridge the end of this month into early February

+NAO and the SE ridge/WAR flexing, that’s all you need to see. These storms are going to continue to cut and inland run. Nothing to stop it. The GEFS probably has the right idea with an RNA trough in the west, especially in the final days of this month and the beginning of February