snowman19
-
Posts
8,787 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by snowman19
-
This is just crazy, tonight has fizzled into zippo. I figured NYC would at least get its 1st dusting/coating tonight. The new HRRR doesn’t have so much as a snow shower now. Its found every way possible not to snow for the last 3 months https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023010900&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
-
Do you think February somehow avoids going climo canonical La Niña? This Niña is still looking real healthy and well coupled. Region 3.4 just dropped to -1.1C, the SOI is still very strongly positive and the trade winds are still very strong https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png
-
I don’t think anyone is surprised tonight trended into nothing. It has been finding ways not to snow here for months. Since November, every potential event has turned into nada
-
If there is no -NAO in February it will roast. That would be the only thing to stop an all out torch and tame the SE ridge
-
Then of course the jet retracts, the ridge retros to the Aleutians and a -PNA/RNA and SE ridge develop and we go canonical Niña for February lol
-
Here’s a very good example. Watch the jet retraction, the ridge retrograde and the -PNA/SE ridge develop come the beginning of February
-
To add on to this, the La Niña is actually not rapidly falling apart at all. Nino region 3.4 actually dropped again the last few days to -1.1C (moderate), the trade winds are still abnormally strong and the SOI is very high, so it is still really well coupled https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png
-
The jet is normally retracted in La Nina’s. The extension we have now is a Nino look but that’s ending around 1/21. This, along with the tropical forcing projections leads me to believe we are going canonical Niña climo for February
-
You can already see it starting around 1/21….the extended Pac jet finally retracts and goes into a +PNA at first, then it’s going to retro to the Aleutians and morph into an Aleutian ridge/RNA pattern and the SE ridge pops at the beginning of February and we go classic La Niña, forcing goes to the IO and Maritime Continent, per Niña climo. Seeing no signs of anything causing a major disruption to that system .
-
Good luck with that lol unless something stops it, we’re going to go canonical Niña in February. Stop listening to JB he’s been wrong all winter .
-
Something has to completely throw a monkey wrench into February or I think that month torches. If you look at the tropical models the convective forcing wants to go to the Maritime Continent and the IO at the end of this month into early February. If that happens it’s canonical Niña, -PNA/RNA, SE ridge city .
-
This run almost turned it into FROPA but it’s probably wrong. It was all disjointed, energy flying all over and this solution is most likely trash .
-
The new Euro is about to be rain to Quebec City .
-
I figured 01-02 would be on that list too. Kind of surprised it wasn’t. That was one of the biggest ratters of all time. Worse than 11-12 and 97-98. 19-20 was pretty ugly too from late December on .
-
Not sure about ORH. This morning Eric Fisher said Boston itself is still awaiting its first inch of snow. It’s pretty wild .
-
Actually I stand corrected. Boston has less than an inch for the season .
-
Yep, our trace so far is actually better than Philly, Baltimore and DC. They have zero and yea Boston is just barely 1 inch for the season .
-
I remember January of 2011 when JB pissed the weenies off because he forecasted that all the blocking was going to break down completely by February and not come back and winter was over. Boy did he get hate for that. That was probably the only time in his entire life that he didn’t forecast cold and snow and he turned out to be right. He was one of only a couple who called that correctly. Everyone else kept saying the blocking was coming back in February and March .
-
The EPS took a fairly sizable jump to the west. With a +NAO you need a strong 50-50 low or it’s going to cut .
-
It lost the 50-50 low. Rain to Montreal .
-
When the GFS isn’t suppressed at this range, it’s normally a bad sign. Typically it’s way south and east then trends towards the other models in our big snowstorms. Guess we’ll see .
-
Turns out MJO 8 isn’t cold when there is a strong stratospheric polar vortex .
-
Hi [emoji846] .
