snowman19

Never a good sign when you are counting on SSWs and SPV splits to change a pattern. Anyway, very true on your point on who benefits from this potential SSW. Not really seeing it on these forums but the hype on social media that it’s definitely going to benefit the east and dump arctic cold and snow into the northeast and mid-Atlantic is dead wrong. The SSW (if it even happens) could very easily benefit Eurasia like you said and do nothing here. We have multiple examples of such. The notion that any SSW and/or SPV split = massive cold and snow in the east is greatly flawed

Very ugly overnight runs on the ensembles all the way out to the end of the runs, Bluewave. The GEFS and GEPS were particularly hideous. EPS was pretty bad too just not as awful as the other 2.....

The GEFS and GEPS were incredibly ugly all the way out to the end. The EPS wasn’t really any bargain either

Correct, we also have a +WPO, which is adding to the PAC driven mess. People need to be aware too, that the -NAO block may set up too far south....that needs to be kept in mind here. A too far south block hooking up with the WAR (no 50/50 low) is not good. That block needs to establish itself further north or you have big problems

There in lies a big issue, the PAC jet. Over the last several winters, every attempt at sustained +PNA ends up falling apart because the juiced PAC jet crashes right into it and knocks it down as fast as it pops up

The model continue to show a strong +EPO and have backed off on sustained +PNA. Until you lose the AK troughing, you aren’t going to get durable cold into the CONUS. The +EPO is completely cutting off any cross-polar flow. You also have a +WPO. Despite the -NAO and -AO, this is not an arctic cold pattern and it may be extremely difficult to get east coast snowstorms until the PAC changes, negative AO/NAO isn’t going to cut it with a Pacific that looks like that

Get well soon. God bless. Merry Christmas

I don’t trust the GFS or GEFS anymore. They have been abysmal man

I knew when I saw his posts hyping the best east coast snow pattern since January, 1996, his forecast calling for a cold and snowy winter, and declaring La Niña dead and his bragging that “DTRex” had ended the streak of bad winters, it was the kiss of death....

I completely disagree. This is the strongest trade wind surge we have seen since October. Nino 3.4 is going to drop. Also as Don already pointed out, this is the lowest SOI we’ve had since 2012. Region 3.4 SSTs are solidly in moderate territory. Oceanic and atmospheric indicators certainly show a healthy Niña, not a dead one. It’s also showing that this is very likely to be a slow fade in late winter, not a sudden shift into Neutral/La Nada

@bluewave@donsutherland1 People who have written this La Niña off as dying may want to reconsider. A massive trade wind surge is coming. Region 3.4 is about to see an SST drop again. Maybe the CFS idea of a secondary peak in January isn’t so crazy after all:

Agree with you. Next week looks real doubtful for a snowstorm in the metro area, even New Years Day. New England may be a different story, especially central and northern New England.

Unless there are some big changes soon, I don’t think we can be real optimistic about next week for a major snowstorm

The argument that ENSO is completely meaningless and that there is no such thing as La Niña or El Niño patterns is asinine, nonsensical. It’s not even worthy of a debate

To say that ENSO is totally meaningless and that there’s no such thing as El Niño or La Niña patterns is completely and totally absurd. That’s ludicrous

If the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent in late January, as is the typical canonical La Niña progression, people won’t be asking “where is the La Niña pattern?” anymore come February

Yea, we may be singing a very different tune in just over 4 weeks (late January)

GFS too cold again and on its own yet again

No, if there’s really a full latitude trough out west it’s not “correcting” to anything

The new Euro has a full latitude trough on the west coast (strong -PNA) for this storm. If that’s correct, it’s going to cut

You also need to buy a +PNA....there’s a full latitude trough on the west coast

This progression is not shocking at all in a La Niña which is front end loaded. December through early to mid January typically are the colder/snowier period, then late January, February (especially) and March are when the classic La Niña torch pattern normally hits

It’s an EPO problem too, troughing over AK

That’s one issue, the other issue is the PAC side at the time

It seems like every winter from November through March there is non stop hype of “major/huge/epic/historic” SSWs, SPV splits, flips, dips, electric slides....