snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The hyped “cold” period for the end of this month has turned into just a week (1/24-1/31) of near normal temperatures
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Wednesday is not going to turn into a snowstorm for the area. While I believe NYC sees enough measurable snow to not break the 1/29/73 record, that one is going over to rain after whatever brief front-end there is
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Model bias of being too weak with the SE ridge in the long range, then it corrects much stronger as we get closer in time. Same issue that’s been going on for years with the models underestimating the SE ridge/WAR in the extended only to correct stronger
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In terms of? I’m seeing an Aleutian ridge, -PNA and a very positive NAO
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The 12z models so far are cutting back the front end snow for Wednesday in the metro area and have gotten warmer. The ICON has no front end south of Orange County and the CMC and GFS cut back notably with a bigger midlevel warm push and the primary low going to Lake Erie or Ohio (CMC). Lets see what the Ukie and Euro do
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The real big jump in daylight comes the first week of February. 2/5 - 5/5 is considered Solar or Celtic Spring. It’s the time of the year when we gain daylight the fastest. https://www.boston.com/weather/local-news/2022/02/05/solar-spring-is-here-and-that-means-we-are-gaining-more-daylight-in-an-increasingly-big-way/
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The NAM has done a full cave to what the RGEM has had run after run for days now, for tomorrow. That model is wretched. NWS should just shut it down, useless
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Here’s a good visual of why the pattern sucks for east coast snowstorms from now through the start of February. This is why you need a -NAO block and a 50/50 low or the lows just continue to run and cut without any secondary redevelopment
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Wednesday is pretty much an all rain event. I-84 north may be a different story. The new Euro takes the low to Buffalo, no 50/50 low, no -NAO, trough orientation sucks, nothing to lock confluence in, etc.
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I think it’s less than an inch total, but enough to be considered “measurable”. The overwhelming majority of that event will be rain. There is no evidence to support a meaningful snowfall in NYC Wednesday/Thursday, in fact, just the opposite
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I think we end up #2 on the list. While I think it’s going to be minimal, there’s probably going to be some measurable front end snow in NYC on Wednesday, keeping 1973 in 1st place
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I’d have to agree. Don’t think it’s much, probably less than an inch before going to rain. It would take the curse of Medusa for NYC to make it to 2/1 with zero snow from 11/1 - 2/1
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As predictable as the rising sun, the ensembles have completely dropped the phantom -NAO they were showing the tail end of the month into early February. Dropped like a bad habit. Another model fantasy that disappeared
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Probably less than that. Those 10:1 ratio maps are not going to be accurate for that event. Ratios are going to be lower
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The NAM has been out to lunch all winter long. Really not even worth looking at anymore. The RGEM has been schooling it
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Not really [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
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I don’t think it changes back to snow. This winter can’t be over, it never even started. Been nothing but a parade of cutters, inland runners and warmth since mid-November. The only semblance of winter was the 4 day arctic cold snap Christmas week
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It’s definitely going to all rain, even up where I am. Question is can you actually get something measurable on the lead front end? I guess it’s better than nothing since NYC has zero snow up to now, before the pattern goes completely to hell again the first week of February
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The NAM is in a world all to its own for Sun/Mon
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif
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March will be here before you can say torch
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Yea lol that’s one way of putting it…
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Did you see the new Euro weeklies? Oooof
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The op Euro is not what it used to be. The fact that the GFS isn’t suppressed and is showing an inland runner at this range is not good. Also, the JMA which is always the far eastern outlier is showing an inland runner for the Wed/Thurs event. Both huge red flags
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The crazy part is, global temps have not dropped despite a 3rd year moderate La Niña, in fact, they have gone up. In our “old” climate, Nina’s would drop the global temps, not anymore. AGW appears to be increasing
