snowman19

I think the question will be how raging is the STJ? Does it just blast PAC maritime air across the entire CONUS and Canada? A La 1997. I can see -AO/-NAO but are the EPO floodgates wide open? I don’t have any confidence in sustained -EPO and +PNA with a super Nino completely juicing the STJ and displacing the Aleutian Low. And no @4070Benchmark, I’m interested in the CANSIPS peak in 3.4

Oh yea, most likely December is a torch and I think if we had a +PMM this event would have warmed with ease west of regions 1+2 and 3. The PMM is what I believe is inhibiting that, 3.4 is definitely going to warm substantially but I have serious doubts about region 4 warming all that much. The subsurface beneath 4 is already gone

Region 3.4 is obviously going to warm a lot (very likely become super) over the next few months but IMO this event stays a classic Eastern Pacific/EP El Niño right into this winter. One of the big factors I think that prevented this one from evolving into a more Modoki or west-based event is and has been the very persistent -PMM. The -PMM has been strong and firmly entrenched since last fall and I believe is one of the main reasons why this event has remained so east-based. Had the PMM flipped positive I think the way this event would have developed and configured itself quite a bit differently

I’m trying to find the tweet about the CANSIPS I saw from this morning, if I find it I’ll post it for you. Looks like the WWB in the East PAC is gaining strength, it’s going to cause another DWKW and positively feedback/reinforce this already very east-based Nino configuration

@gawx Just read on twitter that the CANSIPS is showing the Nino going super now, can you confirm? Can’t find anything myself yet

If the November runs show the exact same forcing then things will be interesting

It’s also been showing region 1+2 going into a La Niña since March

This: https://x.com/osuwxguy/status/1691164118231781376?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

IMO the forcing moves east by December but that’s a wait and see obviously. And if I’m a betting man, the CANSIPS and UKMET show a super El Nino on the next updates like the Euro, JMA, POAMA already do. The CFS is also warming

The current strong WWB forming in the EPAC, which is going to initiate another DWKW and subsurface warming, the atmosphere finally (solidly) going into Nino “mode”, the projected -SOI round coming up and the start of an uptick in OHC again. The +IOD taking shape. The current OISST has a starting point of +1.25C in 3.4 before the new warming even begins, 1+2 at over +3.4C and 3 at over +1.8C

Yes. Agreed. The evidence is growing by the day that we are going to see a super trimonthly peak, most likely in the NDJ time frame. I’m still thinking the peak is in the +2.1C - +2.5C range

Right…..That’s why there’s this huge WWB right now #Clueless [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] https://x.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1690786693232603136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The OHC is coming back up. This MJO constructive interference should lead to a WWB/DWKW which will warm the subsurface and surface further. Also, looks like another -SOI round with substantial central PAC trade wind weakening is coming up. The models show the atmosphere clearly going into El Niño mode and strengthening over the next month. https://x.com/yellow_evan/status/1690429944969699329?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/yellow_evan/status/1690429944969699329?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This is going to trigger a new period of ENSO warming:

Nothing is impossible, all we can do is watch and wait. If I’m a betting man, the forcing moves east by December, given the factors I mentioned, plus the possible super El Niño and the record, extreme warmth in regions 1+2 and 3 but I guess stranger things have happened. There are no guarantees in weather….

I’m speaking of the Eastern Pacific El Niño evolution itself not the atmospheric forcing. The current forcing is almost certain to move east, as has been stated, once the ongoing Monsoon ends and the +IOD forms and strengthens. The current forcing is extremely likely not to just stagnant and be in the same place come December and thereafter given the changes about to take place

Nice write up and yes, as Paul Roundy has been stating, this El Niño is developing like the east-based/EP Nino’s prior to 1980. We are not accustomed to seeing a Nino develop in this way over the last 43+ years. I know some people aren’t going to want to hear it but it is extremely unlikely that the forcing is still in the same spot it’s in right now come December. The seasonal models are seeing the current forcing and just assuming that it’s going to stay right there for the next 7 months. The Monsoon ending is going to shift the forcing east as is the +IOD that’s currently taking shape and will be strengthening over the next few months. As far as the eastern regions (3 and 1+2), that warming is just reinforcing itself at this point through positive (Bjerknes) feedback. IOD:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1690114388198658052?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I think one of the big factors back in the 15-16 winter was the insanely positive PDO, the GOA and western North American coast were on fire, IMO that lead to the temporary bouts of strong -EPO blocking we saw at times during that winter, which caused the cross-polar flow and arctic outbreaks

It goes without saying that there is a real heightened chance of a KU snow bomb in a super El Niño with the raging STJ. You just have to get lucky and time/thread the needle with an arctic outbreak and a phase (i.e., 83, 16). The pattern back in 1/16 was blatantly primed, you had the unmodified arctic outbreak with a banana high in SE Canada, -NAO/-AO, 50-50 vortex and it timed perfectly with the temporary -EPO (++PDO driven), -WPO and +PNA ridge pops out west. A snow bomb in an overall sea of warmth from the ++ENSO

In your hypothetical scenario yes, it would make things interesting possibly even with a super El Niño in place. However, I’m not so sure the WPAC will look exactly like it does now by December. Once the +IOD forcing really gets going I think the whole complexion changes out that way. All we can do is watch. That said, if we do in fact see a trimonthly ONI of +2.3C for NDJ, I still would not go with a cold winter, gotta agree with Griteater there