snowman19

Yea, +3 in January can snow. I’m really at a loss to explain where the twitterologists are getting this super cold arctic pattern from. Is it possibly a snow pattern in January if we can pop a +PNA? Yea. Arctic, “polar vortex” death pattern? Not even close, there’s no cross-polar flow. Wishcasting galore right now

The new NAM solution doesn’t make sense, it’s absolutely torching the mid-levels and still printing out snow. You ain’t snowing with mid-level warmth like that. I’ll sell that run

It may even be just slightly after mid-month but I agree with you guys. We definitely need a favorable PAC side, period, or we will have issues. Then the question becomes do we go into a classic canonical La Niña February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the maritime continent? We’ll have a better idea around mid-month, I think

How exactly will it definitely improve the PAC? And how does it not matter at all if all the cold ends up on the other side of the pole?

If you think Monday is a snowstorm setup, I don’t know what to tell you. In fact, it may actually end up being a cutter

Agree. The GFS has no credibility whatsoever anymore. This is a horrid antecedent airmass and everything would have to literally be 100% perfect, flawless, to get a snowstorm in the metro area. I’ll sell on a snowstorm for Monday

Besides the bad PAC, we have this fact, Don warned that this SSW may end up benefiting Eurasia @donsutherland1 @bluewave...

Good post. Horrible PAC side with the block trapping the garbage. Not the results you want to see. I don’t care what Eric Webb says, he’s the same guy who arrogantly forecasted massive, historic -EPO blocking for this month back in November, which obviously has been a monumental bust.

Agree 100%. It would need to be the definition of thread the needle for the metro area to get snow. The airmass is putrid, the wave spacing isn’t that great and yea, the PAC sucks

The last storm it sure didn’t. It overdid the confluence/cold and suppressed the storm so severely that it had areas which got 40+ inches of snow barely getting 4 inches. One of the most epic busts of all time. It also totally missed the mid-level warm nose over the metro area

He’s extremely arrogant and condescending. Back in November he was hyping a “huge”, “historic” -EPO coming for December. He actually had an attitude towards anyone who questioned it. That turned into an epic fail. Not surprisingly that he’s back on the hype train for January. Everything is historic, huge and epic to him, and don’t you dare question him.....

The GFS is very likely too cold as usual, i.e. the last storm. The fact that it’s colder than all other guidance is a red flag. It’s bias at play again

Looks like the EPS wants no part of it at all so far

What is it showing? Just saw a tweet saying it was showing a miss, nothing. Not around my computer right now

The NAO block is too far south, it’s linking up with the WAR, so it does us no good

Horrible setup. That’s going to be a complete non event

A cooler rain for the metro area

You are going to have to go way north of the metro area to get wintry with this one. Like interior central and northern New England north

^This. I think some people forget that weather moves west to east in the Northern Hemisphere sometimes. If the PAC absolutely sucks, you are f-ed (excuse my language). I don’t care what the Atlantic and arctic are doing. The PAC trumps the NAO and AO. All -NAO and -AO does when the PAC sucks, is trap PAC garbage air under the block. That, and the fact that the depicted -NAO block is way too far south and is hooking itself up with the WAR is another problem in itself. As far as the “SSW” and “SPV split” hype going on right now on social media, please spare us. We’ve seen this movie before and we know how it ends. It’s the same cast of weenie characters hyping the same SSW’s and SPV splits winter after winter, after winter, with no understanding of how they actually work or happen

Yep and it’s real warm for our neck of the woods in the metro area too...upper 50’s

Yep. It’s always the same cast of characters humming the same old SSW tune every winter

Best east coast snowstorm pattern we’ve seen since January, 1996 right?

The new ensembles are a train wreck in the long range, the PAC side looks really awful and they show the -NAO block setting up way too far south and linking up to the WAR. They have been looking progressively worse since the Wednesday night runs

When you hold all your hopes on a “major” SSW event to completely flip the long wave pattern at the end of December, it usually doesn’t end well......

You’re just repeating the hype from the weenie mets on twitter. Literally every winter from November through March they scream about the massive SSWs and SPV splits that are coming. Snake oil salesmen. Fact is, despite what these clowns say, SSWs and SPV splits don’t automatically mean a huge arctic cold and snow dump into the eastern US. In fact, it may just benefit Eurasia and do nothing here, as has been the case numerous times in the past. But they have everyone fooled to believe that every SSW or SPV split event is going to turn the east coast into an arctic tundra. Most of the time they are wrong in predicting these events to top it off, they either don’t end up happening or happen on a very muted scale. It’s a real bad sign when you are depending on SSWs and SPV splits to cause large scale favorable pattern changes, a lot of things are usually going really wrong at that point.....