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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    EPS is a New England snow event for that one. Has less snow for us than the operational, has a stronger primary parent low cutting into the Great Lakes
  2. snowman19
  3. snowman19
    We have ripping fast flow in the northern branch polar jet (typical La Niña). Everything is getting suppressed well south and put through the meat grinder with the fast flow in between the strong 50/50 vortex, which is trapped underneath the NAO block, and the SE Ridge trying to poke up. The shortwaves can’t amp
  4. snowman19
    God speed
  5. snowman19
    All the overnight 0Z model runs were weak sauce, nothing burgers through Day 10 (240 hours). GFS, Para-GFS, CMC, Euro, all less than 3 inches of snow total for the metro area even using the liberal 10:1 ratio snow maps. ICON offered nothing at all through the end of its run (180 hours)
  6. snowman19
    We are going into a -PMM. That is going to dramatically weaken the STJ from here on out
  7. snowman19
    How’s the collapse you predicted going?
  8. snowman19
    Haha Niño 3.4 and 4 are dropping. Not weakening. Dropping SST = not weakening. Solid Moderate La Niña. In fact, it’s now a Modoki La Niña
  9. snowman19
    @bluewave @donsutherland1 Here’s the CFS extremely well predicted secondary peak in January. This La Niña is far from dying...
  10. snowman19
    The GFS/GEFS cold bias has gotten so bad, it has basically become an irrelevant model, this is just insane:
  11. snowman19
    I agree with that. Week 2 is not a good look. The trough needs to pull back off the west coast.Please stop
  12. snowman19
    Stop with what the New England forum said. We are not New England. South of New England you will have problems with that look. You have a full latitude trough dumped in the west
  13. snowman19
    So much for the collapsed Niña you predicted lol
  14. snowman19
    You are going to get cutters, enjoy. That is a bad look south of New England
  15. snowman19
    Yeah, a full latitude -PNA trough dumped into the west is not going to work....
  16. snowman19
    The only thing stopping an all out torch is the -NAO. That look 1/21 and beyond (Aleutian ridge, -PNA, trough dumped into the west) would let the SE ridge go wild, the only thing fighting it is the -NAO, you lose that and we are screwed big time
  17. snowman19
    100%. The depicted upcoming pattern is a real bad one for everyone south of New England, even southern New England near the coast may have issues
  18. snowman19
    With a trough dumped into the west with the RNA you are going to get cutters. Better hope the -NAO doesn’t go away
  19. snowman19
    The models have moved the RNA pattern up by a lot. They originally had it for early February, now they have it in place by 1/21
  20. snowman19
    It moved up by quite a bit. We go RNA, trough dumped into the west by 1/21 now
  21. snowman19
    What are your thoughts on the 1/16 - 1/19 period? IMO, I’m thoroughly unimpressed, I doubt we see anything more than FROPA. The setup stinks, the airmass stinks, not sure what some like about it honestly. I think we are in for a mostly boring 9 days coming up
  22. snowman19
    I think the real wild card will be March. Niña March’s can go either way, some turn cold, some stay warm. February tends to be the torch month in a Niña due to the tropical forcing. Plus you have the very short wavelengths in March, which lead to some crazy outcomes at times
  23. snowman19
    Agreed. The -PNA/Aleutian ridge pattern starts emerging on 1/22 and is fully in place come 1/25, it’s definitely in the believable range now and sped up by over a week
  24. snowman19
    The GEFS has now joined the EPS and the GEPS in showing a big Aleutian ridge, -PNA/RNA by 1/25. Unanimous agreement. It would appear that the long awaited canonical La Niña response is on the way
  25. snowman19
    The -PMM is rapidly strengthening right now. This should lead to the weakening of the STJ and a more Niña like response in the atmosphere. Also, the PDO is getting more deeply negative
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