snowman19

Yes, I’m assuming that’s what he means. Eclipsing the +3.1C in region 3.4 of late November 2015 in late summer would be near impossible

Paul Roundy thinks this may end up being the strongest El Niño in history by the end of this summer

This is the most confident the CPC has been that an El Niño is going to develop in the last 23 years…..

Strong as of now

This definitely is not looking anything like the El Niño fails of the past 2 decades, it means business. A Bjerknes feedback loop is going to get established, which will keep strengthening and reinforcing the Nino Walker circulation

Here comes El Niño and there’s going to be another big one behind it in May

The models absolutely nailed 15-16 and they did it early on too. It was actually a great job. I remember all the deep denials about how the models were severely overdoing the strength, it was going to fall apart, it was never going to reach super status, it was going to peak in August, then it was going to peak in September, it was going to be a Modoki, it was going to be west-based, it was weakening…..The wishcasts back then were truly a sight to behold. Joe Bastardi was the worst out of all of them. The fool actually used 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”

All the models are showing a strong El Niño along with a -PDO for this upcoming winter. If that’s actually what happens, good luck finding analogs….maybe 72-73? But that was in a totally different climate era, pre AGW…

Wrong as usual. I doubted strong I said high end moderate but I understand you have serious reading comprehension and memory problems

Regardless of where the Nino is centered, it looks like it’s going to be a very major event

IMO this one will either be basin-wide or east-based. I think Modoki/CP is off the table at this point. I also think this one goes strong, I doubt “super” at this point but I think there is a well above average chance at strong. The +IOD is only going to encourage further development through constructive interference

Moderate to strongly positive IOD developing…this is only going to facilitate further Nino development as it constructively interferes

This one is way different in that it’s forming in ENSO regions 1+2 and 3, something that has been extremely rare since 1997, which was also an eastern Pacific/EP Nino. I’ve read research which found that EP Ninos are more common in -PDO regimes, which would fit

The extreme warmth has begun migrating into region 3, expect a big uptick there soon

I agree

Yes, in theory it would most likely eventually flip the PDO positive. That said, the 72-73 winter featured a -PDO for the entire winter and that was a super event

Although “super” may be a stretch, I can easily see it going high-end strong. The developing +IOD looks like it means business, which supports beefed up Nino development. 1997 was +IOD. I also think this is going to be an EP/east-based event given how it has started to develop in regions 1+2 and 3. The Eastern Pacific (EP) Ninos in the past have developed in this way, also, the -PDO regime lends support to an east-based event, they much more common during negative PDO cycles

This research classified 86-87 as an EP El Niño: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2651&context=etd

A very significant El Niño for 23-24 is gaining more and more traction. The fact that we are in 3rd place right now behind only 82-83 and 97-98 is very telling, the big dogs developed as eastern Pacific Ninos like this one is so far