snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I really hope this doesn’t turn into a mid-March to the end of May raw rain and cloud fest with another totally ruined spring
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We agree to disagree. Just my opinion, the upstream pattern in the PAC is a total train wreck dumpster fire, there’s no arctic blocking (-AO) over the top, an east based NAO isn’t going to do the trick and lock in a 50/50 low and it would have to be timed absolutely perfectly to thread the needle before the low and confluence move away. We all know the SE ridge is going to trend stronger as we get closer in time, that’s a given. I’m skeptical, we’ll see
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First, the models have been too strong in the medium/long range with the 50/50 lows, see the last 4 months. Again, what is to stop that 50/50 vortex from simply moving right out into the Atlantic? There is no downstream block to keep it in place. You are talking thread the needle big time, especially given the very positive AO and the very strongly negative PNA. There’s a full latitude trough down to Baja
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Where’s the west based -NAO block to lock it in place and prevent it from escaping east? Also a ++AO and severely negative PNA
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Day 10 op CMC and day 10 op EURO. Sell. Same old pattern in place at that point. No -NAO block, no 50/50 low, huge -PNA dumped into the west, SE ridge, Sell
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IMO, the MJO 8-1-2 fantasy isn’t happening. This Niña has a Modoki signature now and it’s still well coupled (MEI is -1 and the SOI is still strongly positive) the Niña standing wave convection is still there and will destructively interfere with MJO wave propagation. Also, there’s cold water in the phase 8 region (Niña) and the trade winds are still strong….that’s going to shear the wave and kill the convection off. The only one harping on the MJO going into phase 8 is Joe Bastardi
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63 in Sloatsburg. Birds are out singing like it’s mid-March. Even saw a wasp flying around and some trees have budded. Insane
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They don’t start to shorten in a big way until mid-March on
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RNA trending stronger so shocking!!
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If this SSW doesn’t turn the east coast into an arctic tundra with 8 feet of snow come 3/31 a lot of hypesters are going to look really bad
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I never understood why some folks expect November to deliver the good with winter weather. Even though it gets difficult to get snows and arctic cold in March the deeper into the month you go depending on latitude, it’s much easier than in November. Just looking at climo alone, November is a torch compared to March. Also, SSTs along the coast are at their coolest in March making boundary layer wind fetch/direction off the ocean less detrimental to coastal areas
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I also think the unbelievably warm SSTs along and off the coast are causing a positive feedback loop, magnifying it even more
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Oh, the crappy PAC isn’t quitting anytime soon. It’s still total garbage going into early March and I’m sure beyond that point
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If we are going to see a turnaround in March the blocking has to show up come the 1st week, and I mean legit blocking in the NAO and AO domains because the PAC is still going to suck then. Then we start racing against the clock. If the blocking starts getting delayed beyond the 1st week of March, I think we’re done. I consider 3/15 the cutoff for anything other than a freak event at our latitude, there’s too much working against us cold and snow wise at that point and beyond
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Agree. If we get to 3/1 and we don’t have a legit -NAO block or at least one definitely imminent, it’s probably over. The Niña background state (RNA/SE ridge) isn’t going anywhere. The MEI is still -1 and the SOI is still strongly positive. The MJO 8-1-2 fantasies look to fail again, the Niña standing wave convection is still there and it’s going to destructively interfere with the MJO wave as it tries to propagate into phase 8, the enhanced trades shearing it aren’t going to help either
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It just started
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If we take the EPS at face value and assume it’s even correct, a true -NAO doesn’t start developing until 3/1. So next week, besides the very strong -PNA and the SE ridge that we know is going to verify stronger than what it is being shown now, what’s to stop the 50/50 low and the associated confluence from simply sliding east out into the Atlantic? Where’s the -NAO block? Fact is there is no -NAO block next week to trap a 50/50 low, even if it’s as strong as what’s being depicted, which is most likely wrong. I think we can all imagine where this is headed
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I’ve seen it before. The models have been doing it since November. They show a knocked down SE ridge/WAR in the mid-long range only for it to verify much stronger as we move forward in time
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My questions are, how do we know it definitely downwells and couples with the troposphere? If it does, which side of the pole does it benefit? What does it actually do to the SPV? How long does it take to have tropospheric effects if any? This event is nothing like 2018. If we are to take the study Dr. Amy Butler shared, given when this SSWE happens, then we factor in the lag time, we are looking at mid-late March for the tropospheric -NAM (-AO) and -NAO to take effect, if that’s the case, it may be all for naught
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Different night, same ending. Seen this movie before and we know how it ends. That gradient is going to end up in New England next week. Massive full-latitude trough digging for gold in Baja and a SE ridge that you know will trend stronger as we get closer. Same old overpowering RNA that’s been there since November, same old pattern. And no, I don’t buy the 50/50 vortex being as strong as depicted either without a true west based -NAO block locking it in, seen that nonsense from the models before this year as well
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You are one to talk out of all people here. Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde. Besides not knowing what you’re talking about you flip flop from one extreme to another like a fish out of water. As fickle as the wind. Stand down
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I guess you don’t read twitter, and no not just children, so called “pro” mets have been doing this for months
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Persistence may be a downfall just like people who have been forecasting cold and snow and historic patterns for the I-95 corridor non stop since November have been epically failing. 4 months and counting
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The snide comment was from someone who lives in New Jersey
