snowman19

All the models are showing a strong El Niño along with a -PDO for this upcoming winter. If that’s actually what happens, good luck finding analogs….maybe 72-73? But that was in a totally different climate era, pre AGW…

Wrong as usual. I doubted strong I said high end moderate but I understand you have serious reading comprehension and memory problems

Regardless of where the Nino is centered, it looks like it’s going to be a very major event

IMO this one will either be basin-wide or east-based. I think Modoki/CP is off the table at this point. I also think this one goes strong, I doubt “super” at this point but I think there is a well above average chance at strong. The +IOD is only going to encourage further development through constructive interference

Moderate to strongly positive IOD developing…this is only going to facilitate further Nino development as it constructively interferes

This one is way different in that it’s forming in ENSO regions 1+2 and 3, something that has been extremely rare since 1997, which was also an eastern Pacific/EP Nino. I’ve read research which found that EP Ninos are more common in -PDO regimes, which would fit

The extreme warmth has begun migrating into region 3, expect a big uptick there soon

I agree

Yes, in theory it would most likely eventually flip the PDO positive. That said, the 72-73 winter featured a -PDO for the entire winter and that was a super event

Although “super” may be a stretch, I can easily see it going high-end strong. The developing +IOD looks like it means business, which supports beefed up Nino development. 1997 was +IOD. I also think this is going to be an EP/east-based event given how it has started to develop in regions 1+2 and 3. The Eastern Pacific (EP) Ninos in the past have developed in this way, also, the -PDO regime lends support to an east-based event, they much more common during negative PDO cycles

This research classified 86-87 as an EP El Niño: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2651&context=etd

A very significant El Niño for 23-24 is gaining more and more traction. The fact that we are in 3rd place right now behind only 82-83 and 97-98 is very telling, the big dogs developed as eastern Pacific Ninos like this one is so far

Correct, so far this one is unique in that isn’t just an EP/east-based El Niño …it’s EXTREMELY east-based, with both SSTs and WWBs. This may end up being a record event in that regard. It does look like a very robust, possibly strong to very strong Nino event is on the way. The +IOD leads me to believe it’s going to continue to strengthen. And yea this year’s PDO is starting much lower than 1972

So far, this event is developing as a classic eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, we are seeing strong warming in regions 1+2 and 3, we also had a very strong WWB/downwelling KW in those regions in March. Since 1980, the major EP El Niño events were: 82-83, 86-87, 97-98 and 06-07. The major central Pacific/Modoki (CP) El Niño events were: 94-95, 02-03, 04-05 and 09-10. There is also a strong +IOD event taking shape, which would support continuing El Niño development, 97 was also a strong +IOD year. Research has shown that EP Ninos are more common in -PDO regimes than are CP Ninos. This one should be interesting to follow…..

I think the question will be does it become basin-wide or stays east-based. Unless something changes dramatically over the next several months (possible), I highly doubt a Modoki event. East-based events tend to be more frequent during -PDO cycles

Evidence continues to mount for a strong El Niño event, as of right now, only 1997 and 1982 were warmer than the present:

We haven’t seen a true east-based El Niño in 25 years. Every Nino since then has been Modoki/western tilt/basin-wide. Eventually it’s going to happen again, east-based events tend to be more common in -PDO regimes

I’m praying for a very strong El Niño, east-based, late peak. PLEASE!!!! [emoji1317][emoji1317]

Back in November, 2014 the PDO was record strong positive and getting even stronger. It helped force that insanely strong, relentless ++PNA/-EPO/-WPO, which was present for that entire winter. It was all PAC driven. The NAO and AO were both severely positive that winter and did us no good at all