Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,547

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    That’s a very good point. If Canada and the CONUS gets inundated with PAC air the next 2 weeks, not only is the arctic cold gone but you are going to loose a lot of snow and ice pack, also, it’s a hell of a lot easier to put Canada back in the freezer in January (like we just saw) than it is in mid-late February. Even if the pattern flips on 2/15, it’s going to take awhile to seed Canada with arctic air again. It’s not instant. I’m sure @SnowGoose69 will agree with this
  2. snowman19
    NYC is going to go into early February with less than 3 inches of snow, total, since 11/1 and above normal temps overall the last 3 months. A very, very bad sign, winters this bad normally just don’t come back. The 1st 2 weeks of February at the very least look like garbage now and I don’t see March, 2018 walking through the door, especially given the tendency for strong Ninos to have a mild to very mild early-mid March…
  3. snowman19
    Beyond horrible. That was probably the worst runs we’ve seen since November. Something has to change in a real big way the next 2 weeks or this winter will go on life support at that point
  4. snowman19
    97-98 just called….it wants its winter back
  5. snowman19
  6. snowman19
    You’re right, I really did think February was going to produce and I may very well be wrong. I’ll say it again, if we get to mid-month and there hasn’t been a true cold/snowy pattern change and we’re still talking about a “weenie look” on the weeklies that’s 2 weeks away, we’re done. Time will be up at that point (2/15) and I won’t care what the weeklies show then in 2 weeks for early March
  7. snowman19
    Have true Omega Blocked patterns ever been big snowstorm producers north of the Mid-Atlantic? I can’t recall any Edit: @George001 NYC isn’t the Mid-Atlantic
  8. snowman19
    36F, heavy rain in Sloatsburg. Upton has dropped the hazardous weather outlook it had up for Rockland County. Expecting all rain here now. @MJO812 There’s snow, it’s just not reaching the ground. If you look at the radar there’s a strong “bright banding” signature over the area, boundary layer is just too warm. Definitely another 97-98 type of storm
  9. snowman19
    Official forecast from NWS Upton: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter
  10. snowman19
    You did say 2/15. Let’s see what happens. Hope the weeklies are actually correct. I will say this though, if we get to the mid-month time frame and this becomes late February/early March for the change, we will be in big trouble at that point. Mid-February is the absolute do or die, put up or shut up point IMO, there will be no more extending it, kicking the can down the road, whatever you want to call it, further out in time anymore. Time will have run out at that juncture
  11. snowman19
    That 12K NAM map is not even going to be close to reality. First off, it’s the NAM, second, that’s in 10:1 ratios, third, no other model, global or mesoscale is showing anything at all like that. Even the 3K NAM looks absolutely nothing like it. Extreme outlier, toss it right in the trash where it belongs. Here is that ridiculous 12K NAM run without 10:1 ratios: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2024012712&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  12. snowman19
    Maybe….if you believe in Bigfoot, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy. Look at the GEFS….its own ensembles don’t even agree with it. It’s such an outlier it’s not even funny
  13. snowman19
    The GFS still hasn’t put the crack pipe down. Literally no other guidance matches it….NAM (12K, 3K), RGEM, CMC, UKMET, EURO, FV3, ICON, NWS blend of models. It’s completely all alone now. It should get this storm figured out sometime Monday afternoon….
  14. snowman19
    If that Omega Block actually forms, I don’t think it will be in any big rush to leave, they usually are even more stable than Rex Blocks. It may take until mid-February or thereafter to get the potential snowstorm producing pattern in, again, assuming the weeklies are definitely correct
  15. snowman19
    The Omega block pattern is starting to look real for February. Those patterns tend to be stable and do not like to just come in and out. It looks like it’s going to resemble a March pattern, a month early. Probably going to see some weird slow moving cutoff/closed low solutions and they may favor the MidAtlantic and south. It does not look like an explosive east coast I-95 snowstorm pattern….yet
  16. snowman19
    We agree. The NAM needs to be retired, awful model, possibly the worst ever. It’s now the GFS vs the world, this close in to the event. That model is in a world all to its own. Totally, completely embarrassing and pathetic
  17. snowman19
    The God awful NAM at the end of its run and at 10:1 ratios. Good luck with that lol
  18. snowman19
    Never said I think it’s going down in flames. I have no idea whether it’s going to be right or not. We’ll know soon though
  19. snowman19
    Enjoy the NYC snowstorm Sun/Mon
  20. snowman19
    Read my frigging post. I didn’t say anyone kicked the can. I said, IF IT (mid-late February) FAILS!!!!!!!!! And IF it does, it’s too late to kick the can at that point. Stop with your attacks everytime you think someone dares to say anything but NYC is going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with feet upon feet of snow
  21. snowman19
    If you live anywhere south of New England, you better pray that the weeklies are right about 2/15 and beyond because that’s put up or shut up time, last shot. You can’t kick the can anymore at that point. Too little, too late. If it fails, good luck punting mid-late February and hoping some storybook miracle happens in March, game over time then
  22. snowman19
    I think the good period is something like 2/15-2/29 then that’s all she wrote (especially south of New England) come early March. Past strong Nino analogs strongly support a substantial warmup early-mid March and this supports that idea as well:
  23. snowman19
    Like you said, God awful setup. Not even worth listing all the negatives. There’s going to be a lot of disapppointed people here, north and west of NYC included. Nothing is good about this storm if you want snow and I’m not saying that because I’m trolling or being a mean person or trying to take away people’s snow. Word to the wise DO NOT use 10:1 ratio snowmaps with this event. They are going to be so grossly inaccurate it’s not going to be funny. Use the positive snow depth change maps only, if they aren’t available on Pivotal, use Kuchera. We will be lucky to see 5:1 ratios, even north and west of NYC
  24. snowman19
    Barely anything: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2024012500&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  25. snowman19
    I can buy a better pattern post 2/15 for a couple of weeks. All the way to mid-March? Color me very, very skeptical. Early-mid March torches in strong El Niños. It’s an extremely strong signal actually looking back on past events, as strong a tendency as December torching during strong Ninos in fact
×
×
  • Create New...