snowman19

The atmosphere is starting to respond and couple (-SOI, strong STJ, OLR, +IOD) now and not just the ENSO SSTs/subsurface. It appears the Niña “lag” has worn off and it’s all systems go. STJ: https://x.com/brianbledsoe/status/1703087558098583774?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw OLR: https://x.com/climate_earth20/status/1703105141161721870?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw IOD: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1701593677016203359?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Not arguing with that and not sure why Mitch had a problem with that list of strong El Niños since 1940 since 57-58 and 09-10 were 2 of the 7

I get the argument….find any way possible to say this is going to be a cold and snowy winter. Right now it’s “don’t look at the ONI or SSTs” if the MEI drops significantly it will be “don’t look at the MEI” and “there’s more to it than ENSO, other factors will decide this winter” next. Last year we ignored the MEI and PDO. We play the game of find any way humanely possible to predict a cold and snowy winter for the east coast every fall, as predicable as the rising sun

Here’s a real good tweet thread…the temp, snowfall and precip for all the strong El Niños (Dec - Feb) since 1940…there have been 7 of them: https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1702475030909829138?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

He was comparing it to the last strong +IOD event

Here is what makes me confident that we see a period of strong, rapid strengthening of this El Nino come October. This +IOD event is quickly gaining strength, is exceeding the latest forecasts and is very likely to become an overperformer, possibly by a lot. In addition, there is very good atmospheric coupling. +IOD constructively interferes with Nino development: https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1702714891210195266?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Per Paul Roundy: “What’s your thoughts on the MEI.v2? It has 09-10 as the best analogue.” Paul Roundy: “Summer throws it off. This event is very different from 09”. Here’s the tweet: https://x.com/paulroundy1/status/1702489522234101828?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/dantejmancini/status/1702483912834904069?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Amy Butler thinks the SSW last winter actually increased and sped up the transport of water vapor into the NH’s stratosphere. I think a few factors will be at play with the stratosphere this coming winter…El Nino, +IOD, high water vapor from Hunga Tonga, solar. Here’s Amy’s tweet: https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1702433306846073309?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Because we really have no analogs for an event like this, all that can be done is an educated guess. The hypothesis is that this will cool the Arctic stratosphere leading to +NAM, cold stratosphere and strong SPV. This is what happened in the southern hemisphere where the effects were felt first, before it propagated into the northern hemisphere (now). The only way to test this theory and also see if it has the same effect as it did in the SH, is wait to see what happens this coming winter

@40/70 Benchmark @griteater Here are the stratospheric experts on Hunga Tonga, huge amounts of water vapor currently in the northern hemisphere’s polar cap: https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1702431321690456472?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1702433306846073309?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1702434768946675734?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Saw that, still quite a bit of time before the normal climatological peak for the OHC (November). Going to be a wait and see for the next 2 months….I’m still confident it gets to +2 or better. October is probably the month we see the big uptick with a substantial DWKW/WWBs

I agree with you. Look at the projected pattern the end of this month, this looks like a classic La Niña to some people?? With a juiced STJ screaming across the CONUS??? Here: https://x.com/empirewx/status/1701940678731645183?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The projected late September pattern looks anything but La Niña like. Raging STJ https://x.com/empirewx/status/1701940678731645183?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I would not be surprised to see Nino 3.4 hit +1.9C the last week of this month

@GaWxCRW has 3.4 up to over +1.7C, 1+2 is back up to +3.0C and 3 warmed to over +2.2C

This El Nino (along with the +IOD) is going to be strong enough to suppress through subsidence and shutdown any MJO activity over the IO and Maritime Continent. It’s already doing that, see the last CPC update. In strong/super Ninos, the low frequency forcing/standing wave completely takes over the show and shuts down the MJO, it becomes a non factor

Out of those years, which ones also had +IOD?

The BOM’s +3.0C is overdone, yes. So overdone that this event is not even getting to super? No way IMO. The BOM hasn’t budged from the same general numbers in months, run after run. It’s seeing something and it’s definitely not an inferior, jumping all over the place, flip flopping model like the CFS. It’s not known for having major biases one way or the other over the years, even though this year, it has been running a bit warm. I’m sticking by my prediction of a +2.2C trimonthly ONI average for NDJ. Even if we make the argument that the POAMA is too warm by over +0.5….that’s still solidly into super territory, since it’s showing that +3.0C for January. I think the other models warm back up on next month’s updates, this slight cooling was more of an over correction/windshield wiper effect. I think the entire complexion of this Nino takes off in a very big way the end of this month and October. I believe it couples and feeds back strongly and we see substantial warming, WWBs/DWKWs coming up for OND. I think the OHC peaks in November at over +2

Great illustration from Ben Noll of how this El Nino is expected to interact with the +IOD and how the forcing should develop going through winter: https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1701670076678824384?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The UKMET still projecting a super Nino: https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1701598862497218888?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Also, 2009 was a classic Modoki, start to finish, classic Central Pacific El Niño

This +IOD is already overperforming, up to almost +1.2. Each update has increased its strength and extended its duration. The new BOM update has it going over +1.7 in November and not going back to neutral until February

@raindancewx I think the real odd thing about this year has been the El Niño/-PMM combo. We’ve had -PDO/Nino combos before but I really can’t find one with this strong of a -PMM

The WPAC has very clearly been cooling notably and is still cooling. It’s undeniable. We have also gone into a significant +IOD and the models are getting stronger with it on each new run. The argument that we are still in a La Niña state and it’s killing the Nino and that all these new model runs are dead wrong about this Nino going super this close to game time is mind boggling to me

Here’s the new JMA, still showing a super trimonthly (NDJ) peak: https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1701283581107089723?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw