snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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How many low Atlantic ACE/La Niña/volcanic years did you find? Also, what was the QBO, IOD, solar and PDO doing in those years? Thank you
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According to this link HM shared, the record amount of water vapor ejected into the stratosphere should cool it and warm the troposphere below: Link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381?campaign=woletoc
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I doubt a strong ONI peak too but I think a high-end moderate/borderline strong peak is absolutely possible over the next 4 months given the current trends
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No semblance of a tripole nor has there been
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Even if you remove the Niña, the other factors are still no good. We have to see where we are at come November. I’d be interested to see what Isotherm says
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Still waiting for the super extreme hyper Atlantic hurricane season that JB has been hyping and wishcasting since April…..and still is. Good lord how does anyone still take that guy seriously. He is the worst of the worst
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It could very well be AGW related. So far, everything (solar/geomag, Atlantic SSTs, QBO progression, Nina structure) is pointing to another +NAO winter. Maybe we see some sort of flip next winter? Overall, 1979-1993 had an amazingly persistent +NAO
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More and more evidence is mounting for a very positive AO winter. This eruption/historic ejection of water vapor is just going to serve to significantly cool all levels of the stratosphere and in turn strengthen the SPV
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@40/70 BenchmarkI’m guessing you think +PNA/-WPO driven December? I’m leaning towards that too the more I think about it. I’m not too optimistic for a big -EPO but we’ll see. I can tell you one thing, the 2010-2011 analog some on twitter are throwing out/wishcasting looks real, real bad right now. I honestly would not be surprised to see an overall ++AO/++NAO winter (Dec-Mar). This is just bad:
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I have a feeling any good periods are going to have to come from the PAC. What is going on right now with the sun is reminiscent of the late summer/fall high solar flux of 2001. Solar activity has been way overperforming since February and it continues unabated:
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Well yes but at least a -WPO would help keep Canada seeded with arctic air so when the EPO dips negative and the PNA goes positive it can bring the arctic down
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IMO hope for a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO). I honestly don’t think you are going to sustain +PNA/-EPO with the -PDO and Niña but I could be wrong. Guess we’ll see
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I think there is still a weak Niña in March. Once we get into April I think it’s completely over and we’re ENSO neutral and warming. I would expect that we go weak Nino come summer
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IMO the reason why this Niña is continuing to strengthen is constructive interference with the -IOD. If we had a +IOD right now, I believe it would be destructively interfering with the Niña and it would be nowhere near as strong as it is now. Back in 2016, had it not been for the -IOD event constructively interfering with the developing Niña, I don’t believe we would have ever seen an official Niña that winter
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Agree for the most part and not just here, further north as well. Back in 13-14 and 14-15 we had a garbage Atlantic and arctic but the PAC made up for it with a record ++PDO and strong +PNA/-EPO/-WPO. This year, I think we are going to need the AO/NAO for anything sustained. I doubt we will be able to really sustain a good PAC for long because of the Niña Modoki/-PDO/-IOD background states
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@40/70 BenchmarkYour initial thoughts seem to be pretty good so far, this winter may have to come down to a favorable PAC at times to get anything. Evidence is mounting (high solar flux/high geomag/solar flares, Atlantic SSTs, Modoki Niña, Volcanic effects, +QBO) that the AO/NAO are possibly going to be downright hostile. From HM, re. Volcano’s effects on the stratosphere:
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@40/70 Benchmark
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Here you go…..this would seemingly support your initial thoughts that December is cold then Jan and Feb get torchy. Also has the fall pattern in there….
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Yes. I should have specified in the MEI sense
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I’m thinking it’s a November/December peak but regardless, BAMWX has a point about this 3rd year La Niña being the strongest in history. Whether that ultimately matters in the long run, I don’t know. That aside, you and I both agree that we are headed for an El Niño in ‘23-‘24. I think we are finally ENSO neutral/La Nada come April
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@40/70 Benchmark Thoughts on this? I didn’t realize how far this current 3rd year La Niña event was from the previous “triple dip” events. MEI: ONI:
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Region 1+2 is almost in an El Niño right now. I think it’s abundantly clear where this is all headed for in 2023-2024 and I’m sure a lot of people will be overjoyed
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I don’t think there’s going to be much of a difference between the NYC metro and the mid-Atlantic this coming winter. New England may be a different story
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Yea my guess is still favorable early on. The concern would be how long any favorable PAC would be able to sustain itself given the strong -PDO and this:
