snowman19

My guess is a super trimonthly ONI (NDJ) of +2.2C, peaks in December: November: +2.2C December: +2.3C January: +2.2C

The models don’t show this +IOD event fading to neutral until sometime in January and they have actually gotten stronger with it, they also show a very gradual, slow weakening of what will most likely be a super El Niño through March after it peaks around December. Given that we are in the beginning of September, I fully expect the OHC to peak at or above +2.0, given that it normally doesn’t max out for another 3 months (November). I expect the MJO to propagate into the Pacific and with it, kill the trade winds and initiate another WWB and DWKW, enhancing the feedback. I think we see strong ENSO warming come the end of this month, also think we see much better coupling/strong -SOI as we move toward the end of the month

I am not good with the graphics, but in summary, we are seeing the +IOD strengthening, both oceanic (SST) and atmospheric response. This should constructively interfere with El Niño and lead to further warming and atmospheric coupling, -SOI in the next several weeks. The MJO propagating into the Pacific in conjunction with the +IOD, should also weaken the trades, cause a WWB/DWKW and also help lead to warming come the end of this month

https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1697565655653056596?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/jnmet/status/1697264889201348963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I know you do when you want to show region 1+2 “dropping”

Toss it. The CFS being the flip flopping CFS. I have no faith in a model that’s been trying to cool region 1+2 into a La Niña since March. Garbage model

Around mid-month, the MJO wave moves/propagates into the Pacific and that’s when it constructively interferes with El Niño and really amplifies the warming. I think this month ends with region 3.4 at around +1.8C - +1.9C. This MJO looks to have good strength too

We get it, you have decided that the CANSIPS is definitely right and this is going to be a very cold and snowy winter. And maybe Jesus Christ came down and told you that the forcing isn’t going to move and it’s going to be “Modoki forcing” all winter. This is how many cold and snowy winters in a row that you have predicted now? You are going to find any excuse to force this too. First, the ONI wasn’t getting above moderate, if that, then it wasn’t going to get above strong or you were changing your name to snowman19ismydaddy. Then, “If it goes super it means nothing it won’t behave like a strong or super Nino”. Now, the ONI doesn’t matter at all, SSTs mean squat. The RONI and the MEI are the be all and end all now because it supports “doesn’t matter if the ONI goes to +3.0C, I’m still forecasting a cold and snowy winter”. You will latch onto any index you can find to support your forecast. Last year, when I pointed out that the La Niña was extremely well coupled and had a super low MEI, the MEI didn’t matter, ignore it, it’s outdated. Then the extremely +SOI didn’t matter either, ignore it, it’s overplayed. And you latched on to the ONI saying it wasn’t getting above weak/low end moderate and the CANSIPS showing an east-based Niña winter. The PDO doesn’t matter, the PDO and PNA are going to disconnect this year because…reasons! The EPO is going to be deeply negative too because the RONI shows the Nino is going to behave like a weak Nino. The polar fields support non stop deep -NAO/-AO all winter long too. Don’t argue with me…the solar and QBO will make it happen and Hunga Tonga is ancient history, means nothing. Once October comes, I’ll argue that Judah’s Siberian snowcover index very strongly supports this too! This winter isn’t getting decided by ENSO! Your agenda is clear as day

You mean actually discussing what this thread is about? Wow such a crazy concept!!!!!

https://x.com/wxpatel/status/1697310715369927029?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1697321453484740990?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Let’s see what it looks like in November when it really counts before we make conclusions on 8/31

Regardless of what happens with the forcing by winter, which is anyone’s guess right now, the common theme with ALL the models is that this El Nino isn’t going to be in any hurry to weaken and decay through March once it peaks (probably December). They all show a slow weakening starting in January

The OHC is rising very quickly, it typically does not max until November and it’s already up to +1.2. With 3 months of warming to go, it is extremely likely it reaches or exceeds +2 come November. Also, here comes the September MJO wave activity now that the monsoon is ending: https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1697204907160506418?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I am not talking about forcing in that comparison. As far as Nino evolution we are very far ahead of 1982 right now

We are way ahead of the 1982 super El Niño at this point in time….warmer at the surface and subsurface, warmer ONI, stronger WWBs/DWKWs, better positive feedback, stronger +IOD, stronger -SOI periods (since May), also more east-based than ‘82 as well. 1982 didn’t really take off until almost the end of September

Yes, -PMM. IMO the -PMM is what is helping to keep reinforcing the east-based Nino warming in regions 1+2 and 3. It’s starting to expand west from there into region 3.4 now, as Paul Roundy has been hinting out for months with his paper in Pre-1980 El Niños. This Nino is behaving like the El Niños from that era.., @so_whats_happening https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00398.1.xml

I’m not good with posting my own images on here, so. But anyway, the PAC MJO that should really kill the trade winds, initiate a strong WWB behind it and kick this Nino into overdrive is coming in September, also, here are a few images of the downwelling Kelvin wave renewing the subsurface warming in the east PAC that I was talking about earlier. https://x.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1696965796084220371?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1696971527441281328?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I saw that too but I wasn’t going to be the one to post it so I wouldn’t get attacked and accused of anything….

The new subsurface warming was caused from the recent WWB in the equatorial east PAC, which initiated a DWKW. Positive feedback loop in place. Along with the rapid, ongoing OHC rise, and +IOD strengthening, I’m more confident than I’ve ever been that this event goes super trimonthly ONI….NDJ

IMO, very good chance we are at +2.0 or above come November, we are ahead of 1982 at this point in time

The pre-1980 Nino evolution continues:

As far as a trimonthly average for NDJ, I don’t think +2.2C like the BOM is showing is unreasonable. I can absolutely see something like what is being shown…+2.2C, +2.3C, +2.2C (NDJ)….

You can make an argument for 57-58 and 65-66. 02-03 and 09-10? I have serious issues with those given how this El Nino developed and is continuing to evolve, it’s night and day different, like not even remotely close. I know no one here has done it, but I’ve even seen 76-77 alluded to by JB and some other weenies on twitter, which is completely and utterly ridiculous, no comparison whatsoever

I only said when it is forecasted to emerge. If you re-read my post didn’t say anything about when it enhances Nino development aside from saying “in September”. I don’t think it takes until the end of September but we’ll see