snowman19

What in the world are you talking about?? No one is rewriting anything. That tweet I just posted simply explained why the MEI isn’t measuring up right now. The SOI has actually been impressive for months per @Gawx and I’ve never argued about main forcing. This Nino is going to warm, it hasn’t peaked, the peak most likely happens late December/January and it’s very well coupled as I have explained in the past couple of weeks in here

Better than your CFS forecasts of region 1+2 being in a La Niña by now lmfaoooo

Are you looking at what’s going on right now oceanic wise? They are all about to warm big time. You’ll just ignore it when it happens though. Funny, don’t see you mentioning the RONI anymore lol And besides Eric Webb, the other tweet I just posted gave a very clear explanation of why the MEI is the way it is. And I’ll admit, you have Mark Margavage, Joe Bastardi, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann on your side, going HUGE cold and snowy winter, MEI to the rescue!!! 4 true all stars with those guys in the weather community. Legends. I’m sure this winter will work out superbly for you when you have them on your bandwagon lol

As you suspected, the NMME got stronger with the El Nino on this new run, especially in regions 3 and 3.4. That QPF map is indicative of a raging, roaring STJ crashing into the west coast and flooding the CONUS with PAC air. I’m sure @CAPE and @mitchnick will throughly enjoy lol

Hmmmmmm, very interesting stuff….. @CAPE @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @Daniel Boone @Terpeast @brooklynwx99 @griteater @GaWx @stadiumwave @mitchnick

Big SOI drop again, approaching -20

Strongest WWB/DWKW of this event. We are very likely 8+ weeks away from the El Niño peak….

A few things, this WWB/DWKW is major and this Nino is not peaking/peaked right now, the peak doesn’t likely happen until late December or January, more warming is coming and substantial warming at that Further this +IOD is still very much alive and very well coupled, very strong atmospheric response

Yes I do and I don’t think it peaks until late December or January

CPC just updated the official weekly readings, Nino 3.4 over +1.8C…. Nino 1+2: +2.2C Nino 3: +2.1C Nino 3.4: +1.8C Nino 4: +1.4C And this is BEFORE the DWKW/WWB warming currently in progress has yet to take effect. This one is going super. It’s coming https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

I don’t like to speak in absolutes about weather but this El Nino/+IOD is going to run the entire show this winter, I have no doubt. All the talk of a weak atmospheric response is folly IMO

New Euro run still shows a super El Niño

Where is all the cold though? The SE is “cool/cold” from solar irradiance, clouds, precip from the roaring STJ overhead

Better hope we get something from the El Niño this winter because it looks like we go right back into yet another La Niña once this event is all said and done

Ben Noll always uses OISST not CRW. With weeks and weeks of warming (WWBs/DWKWs) yet to go, it’s obvious at this point that it’s going to exceed +2.0C. @roardog He used the CRW SST map yes, but he uses OFFICIAL readings (OISST). The last OISST on cyclonicwx was in the verge of going above +1.8C. Nice troll

Closing in on +1.9C and more warming in the coming weeks, AND the DWKW has yet to be realized….

Substantial strengthening….

High confidence we hit +2.0C by mid-month. My guess stands, +2.1C - +2.3C for a trimonthly ONI